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You've suggested a strategy which is more work, likely higher risk, and marginal-at-best added returns. In addition to that you've introduced several core misunderstandings of probability and randomness around which you've quietly moved the goalposts until people stopped complaining. It's not a...

"Cat beats professional money managers" is apples to oranges compared to indices. It's well-established that active management is mostly mechanism for extracting fees. As far as the actual random stock picks go, from that article: "Five years later, the long-only equity system he created has...

What's your surface drainage like? I've seen puddles like that in my garage where the water ran in under an exterior door and then partially evaporated leaving a stranded pool in the middle of the room.

Only if you're betting long enough to actually achieve the expected value. If you are making a single bet your variance is very high and that definitely matters. No, it absolutely is not. Picking a single stock at random from a distribution you are virtually guaranteed not to achieve the...

And this is the heart of your confusion. Your sample is made at the time you commit to the investment, not the time when you discover what the outcome actually was/will be. There is an information lag, but for all useful purposes the outcome is fixed when your money goes in. If you bet on a...

That is true. FOR THE DISTRIBUTION. Your observations/investments are NOT the distribution. They are samples FROM the distribution and have their own importantly different mean.

"Average" and "mean" measure the central tendency of a set of numbers and have no meaning if you haven't sampled your distribution. The mean of zero samples is undefined. The mean of n > 0 samples is the sum of your observations over n and not the mean of the distribution. (Yes, it's fine to...

You're confusing the distribution mean with the actual average of your sample from that distribution. If I roll a die once and get a 1 my average is 1, not 3.5. You need a very large number of rolls for your sample mean to converge satisfactorily towards the distribution mean.

"Mario for adults" doesn't compute. Are you too badass to find stars and rescue princesses or something? Mario Galaxy was a great game; I don't care how old you are. This is like saying you hate ice cream because it's not spicy enough.

I pay 0.04% on my Vanguard funds. While what you're saying about random stocks may be true in some technical sense, no one is going to be able to actually manually manage a wide enough portfolio to robustly re-invent the index. And even if they could, it wouldn't be worth the effort.

Friend of mine is 10 years married and for some reason never nailed down that his wife didn't want kids. She's 40 and doing IVF mostly because he's pushing for a family. She'd make a terrible mom, which she knows and is why she didn't want kids in the first place. The future is going to be a...

It's an asinine mechanic that should not exist in any game. All it does is diminish the value of rewards because you're constantly dogged by the feeling you should never use the cool sword you just got.

If you're in a street fight and your opponent throws a leg kick, it's time to reconsider your commitment.

And now you're getting submissive to dudes on the internet about mirror cleanliness. The proper response you should be practicing is, even if you agree with him, "Fuck you and your opinions about my mirror. I'll deal with that shit how I please, when I please."

My dad just got out of surgery for prostate cancer. Sounds like things went well, so there's that. Still, fuck cancer.

Yeah. See, that might have been useful information to lead with rather than pussyfoot around. The specifics of sex, whatever, but that confers a lot about her personality. And his. That's a not-so-subtle signal (although definitely passive-aggressively manipulative) for "man up and give it to me...

But not seriously entertained them. If we take at face value that you love, admire, and are attracted to her, you have to realize it's going to cause massive damage to blow up an 18 year marriage over something you apparently can't even express clearly. Is not getting your ideal level of...

That's heavy-handed and would just result in fighters cutting off their rehydration. I swear the people who come up with these ideas simply don't understand that fighters will do ANYTHING to their bodies if they think they'll win.

In grappling competitions they do mat-side weigh ins right as you step on to compete. People simply go out dehydrated, believing it's an advantage. The only way to stop weight cutting is to either abolish weight limits or have an extensive program monitoring average body weight and hydration...

Also it's dangerous and makes for less entertaining fights. Lose-lose-lose.

This is why I don't gamble. In order to win you have to either a) rig the game, which is what the betting companies do, or b) be right about something that you think you know that everyone else doesn't. I don't have time or inclination to research C-tier fighters, so I don't bet on them. It's...

If that were really the case, you should have entered 2,048 times covering each possible victory combination and pocketed a guaranteed 35x return. (Which means that those were probably not the actual odds, since someone at the betting company certainly did that math.)

Chaos and consistent results are antithetical. Gambling on chaotic events is a great way to set money on fire, as you have apparently already experienced. There are so many gambling companies because they make a fuckload of profit- which means you the client are consistently losing money...

Goddamn right. My wife and I are grooming our son so that he can build an autonomous vacuuming, dishwashing, laundry-folding household robot. Just so we can use it. Fuck cleaning.

I don't understand the logic behind this matchup other than "they're both fairly popular and we'll make some money." Jones CLEARLY has DC's number. The only people who have ever challenged Jones had similar wingspans. DC gives up a full fucking FOOT of reach to Jones. That's comical, and...

Not judging anyone else, but this is how I fucking detested dating and love being married. I have a very, very low tolerance for other people's bullshit. Most people are morons, and that reveals itself about two minutes into your first conversation. I went on very few first dates, almost no...

You said you've had discussions, but have you said this to your wife, verbatim? It's a human and apparently self-aware take on the situation that could be the start of some important mutual realizations. Or it could start a fight. But maybe you need that catharsis, too.

When I proposed to my wife, an older friend who knew us well gave us some advice. He was on his second marriage; his first ended in a protracted, painful divorce. He said that, in retrospect, he knew it was over the first time he honestly and truly rolled his eyes at his ex. Not in the "I love...

I'm probably the resident expert on knee injury, as I've had six meniscus surgeries and torn ligaments several times over 20 years of martial arts. Medial pain combined with the feeling of buckling and audible cracking sounds more like meniscus problems than ligament damage to me (although you...

No one is saying this.

Happily married 12 years, two kids for whom I'm more or less the primary caregiver. I'm just talking about the data. The difference is between the "outside in" vs "inside out" perspectives. The lessons you can take from looking at other people's experiences are dwarfed by the specifics of your...

My daughter was at 104.5 a while back, AFTER administering the max dose of Tylenol. I was pretty wigged out given the popular wisdom about overheating and brain damage. I called her doctor, who said high temps like that are much more common than you'd think and the better indication of danger is...

This is because "single parent households" includes deadbeat dads, people who made shit choices and procreated with addicts and psychos, etc. The outcomes are not nearly as dramatic for otherwise put-together and reasonable divorced couples who are both trying to be good parents. Divorce is a...

Or just marry a woman who is also your friend that's willing to bone you regularly and with whom you have compatible views on personal finances.

That's about 50% more acceleration than a normal launch, so right on for what Lambourne was speculating.

I have two kids and we didn't spend close to $800 on clothes for the family last YEAR, never mind last month.

Makes you wonder what we're missing out on from ventures that did fail on the brink of life-changing success, or if we could have had existing developments decades or centuries earlier if circumstances had been more generous.

They get a lot more than your score. A credit report that goes to a landlord, for instance, would show everywhere you've ever lived as an adult, your history of credit card, mortgage, student, and car loan payments (not line-item purchases, just monthly payments), any other history of lines of...

I have one credit card, which is my only debt (paid off each month). I have seen reports stating that my score is lower than it might otherwise be due to "insufficient use of revolving credit". My score is 800+ and I don't need credit anyway (except for rental applications) so this does not...

I have chronic post-nasal drip due to an allergy to oxygen or some such common shit, and this works wonders on loosening up morning chest congestion.