A brain teasing probability puzzle

Neki

Neki

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Imagine you are on a game show with only three sealed red boxes.

The three cash prizes are $1, $1 and $100,000. You pick a box, let's say box two.

The host, who knows what's inside the boxes, opens another box, say box three and then tempts you with an offer. Box three is opened in front of you revealing a $1 prize, and he offers you the chance to change your mind to choose box one. Does switching improve your chances of winning the $100,000?
 
S

Silence_sl

shitlord
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Switch. You originally had a 33% chance of getting it right. By switching after the first pick, your chance of getting a win goes up to 66%.

K Spacey was my teacher, too.
 
ZyyzYzzy

ZyyzYzzy

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How is this brain teasing? Not only is it a well known example of statistical probability, it is simple stats.
 
Tuco

Tuco

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It's a cool problem. The trick for me to understand it was knowing that the host would always open the door to a goat.
 
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Dabamf_sl

shitlord
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The question is dumb. Its only interesting if you're prone to over think and/or motivated to appear smart. The elimination of a $1 box leaves your chance at 50/50 no matter what box you choose. Three boxes are equal, one is revealed, and suddenly now one box is twice as likely as the other? Makes no sense
 
OneofOne

OneofOne

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Dabamf_sl said:
The question is dumb. Its only interesting if you're prone to over think and/or motivated to appear smart. The elimination of a $1 box leaves your chance at 50/50 no matter what box you choose. Three boxes are equal, one is revealed, and suddenly now one box is twice as likely as the other? Makes no sense
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Exactly.

I can only hope Silence is trolling. And if he's not, he will be by the time he comes back to the thread.
 
Tuco

Tuco

I got Tuco'd!
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Dabamf_sl said:
Someone is mentally challenged
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Dabamf_sl said:
The question is dumb. Its only interesting if you're prone to over think and/or motivated to appear smart. The elimination of a $1 box leaves your chance at 50/50 no matter what box you choose. Three boxes are equal, one is revealed, and suddenly now one box is twice as likely as the other? Makes no sense
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OneofOne_sl said:
Exactly.

I can only hope Silence is trolling. And if he's not, he will be by the time he comes back to the thread.
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tumblr_lhngw9SKlN1qhxr17o1_250.gif
 
iannis

iannis

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Silence_sl said:
Switch. You originally had a 33% chance of getting it right. By switching after the first pick, your chance of getting a win goes up to 66%.

K Spacey was my teacher, too.
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Dis. Always switch.

They made an entire game show about this with the bald germ freak. And it was 100 boxes.

Edit: It's a math trick. Your chance of winning does go up because they are a continuous event and you do have 50/50 on the second pick. But because they are a continuous event the odds on your first pick does change. Specifically it goes up. It's one of those "the rock will never reach the tree" tricks.
 
iannis

iannis

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I think I watched the show for about 15 minutes once.

It was mostly just long pauses. The show was like 15% models in slinky dresses and 75% dramatic pausing. 10% commercial breaks.
 
Araysar

Loser Araysar

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your choice is still 50/50 whether you switch or not because one box has been revealed regardless. im not sure what makes this a brain teaser or a puzzle.
 
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