Ebola Outbreak

TheBeagle

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So... weren't we all supposed to be infected by Ebola now? Wasn't that what they were predicting a few months back? Exponential increase and shit like that? Piff! Worst. Plague. Ever.
Only the people with zero scientific experience predicted that....cable news pundits, politicians, and conspiritards like Tad.

Just infections - multiply by 50%.

y=Ce^(kt). Using August 1st as y(0)=1,603 cases, using October 1st as y(60)=7.492. K= (ln 7492/1603)/60 = 0.025699315. Setting t=365 (August 1st, 2015) we get 1603e^(k365)=18,998,720 Cases... All data from Wikipedia.
We still have eight months to get 18,900,000 more cases. We can do it guys!
 

Hoss

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He has ebola and is riding the subway with it all day every day.
 

Furry

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So... weren't we all supposed to be infected by Ebola now? Wasn't that what they were predicting a few months back? Exponential increase and shit like that? Piff! Worst. Plague. Ever.
Plague is still spreading, though people in africa are starting to treat it a tiny bit serious and the international response is taking it somewhat serious. The factors have cut the growth rate hard. Despite this, we don't have it anywhere near under control. It's still a major issue, just one you haven't heard about as much due to the fact that some pant sagger got shot for robbing a store and assaulting a cop.
 

Tuco

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Only the people with zero scientific experience predicted that....cable news pundits, politicians, and conspiritards like Tad.



We still have eight months to get 18,900,000 more cases. We can do it guys!
Wasn't Tad the one lecturing us on how we needed to use slide rules to understand exponential growth as well as he does?
 

TheBeagle

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Hah hah ya. I guess technically he understood it from a math perspective, but just couldn't grasp the biological reality that exponential growth doesn't really happen in nature. Even with ebola.
 

Dyvim

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Thought theyd cycle that clip 24/7 during cnn breaks by now.

 

Rezz

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A much more realistic number would be closer to 100k by May, in my opinion, with borderline total negligence. 20k-30k by the end of the year, and then larger projections in a shorter time-frame. An exponential growth, but nothing like the ridiculous claims of 1.4m and similar.
So quoting myself because I was completely correct in my extrapolation. We're at about 18k right now globally at the moment (well, reported, with less than half of that confirmed) so yeah, it is still a terrible plague. Good thing I wasn't using a slide rule, or I might have fallen into Tad's trap!

Still sucks that it took so many retarded incidents in a short time frame to cut down on the threat of importing it here in large numbers.
 

Borzak

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I move to TX and they have a temporary ebola scare. Nice.
 
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The 18 mil projections was if the response didn't ramp up and we continued treating it like we were... people started to take it serious.
 

Vaclav

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It'll be 4b if we all change to a society that drinks cadaverous blood as a past time. Woot for nonsensical hypotheticals.
 

Szlia

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Another case of reality stranger than fiction. I guess now we can expect a Syfy movie titled Eye-bola or something.
 

Hoss

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Sharkbola is more likely.
 

lurkingdirk

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Well, shit. Give sharks Ebola, then have a sharknado, and we're super fucked.

Thanks, Hoss. How am I supposed to sleep tonight?
 

Hoss

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They don't even need to make the whole move to make me happy. I just want to see the scene where they're explaining how people are getting ebola from shark attacks.