European Politics Thread

Fogel

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It's interesting to imagine where the EU would go if Macron is deposed. Germany cannot sustain its economy without the EU. About 55% of German GDP is from exports and about half of that is to the EU. Even a 5% drop in their GDP would immediately result in a recession.

The Germans and their allies in the EC literally cannot allow a eurosceptic government to replace Macron, it would be an existential crisis for economic engine for the entire EU experiment.
Napoleon bucked the status quo before, no reason they con't do it again. Instead this time it'll be the EU instead of the Hapsburgs.
 

khorum

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Heh, Napoleon CREATED Mitteleuropa when he abolished the Holy Roman Empire. The HRE kept bickering Germans at each others' throats for almost a millenium....until it didn't.

Within a couple decades of Napoleon's action the Prussians would unite much of Germany, assert their alliance with the Austro-Hungarians and clobber France's second Republic so thoroughly that many historians argue it practically made the first (and so the second) world wars an inevitability.

So yeah, even the spectre of an ascendant Germany is FRANCE's fault.
 

Gurgeh

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It's interesting to imagine where the EU would go if Macron is deposed. Germany cannot sustain its economy without the EU. About 55% of German GDP is from exports and about half of that is to the EU. Even a 5% drop in their GDP would immediately result in a recession.

The Germans and their allies in the EC literally cannot allow a eurosceptic government to replace Macron, it would be an existential crisis for economic engine for the entire EU experiment.
Germany has a 1000B surplus on Target 2, if the Euro disappear Germany lose probably over 80% of that. They either save the Euro or die. Especialy as they don't have an army to back up any threat they could possibly make. So losing a few % of their export is just the icing on the cake. If Italy leave the Euro, France lose 100B on Target 2, that would instantly increase France debt by 30%, it would probably DOUBLE German debt overnight. French debt is already difficult to manage, if Italy leave the Euro it becomes unsustainable, if France default, Germany default as well, and the few German left commit suicide.
 

iannis

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Yep. That is probably the fundamental problem with th e eu as structured.

It's not unique. Our federal structure is at the behest of new York and california. Ten years ago it was new York fucking us, now it's california. Too big to fail is firmly embedded in the American zeitgeist for now. It's not yet for france.
 

Gurgeh

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Yep. That is probably the fundamental problem with th e eu as structured.

It's not unique. Our federal structure is at the behest of new York and california. Ten years ago it was new York fucking us, now it's california. Too big to fail is firmly embedded in the American zeitgeist for now. It's not yet for france.
We can legitimately fear that something too big to fail is going fail at some point, and we'll see that :
giphy.gif

At which point you'll want your country to be self-sustainable for a while... I'm not TOO afraid of it, as in France we have food, electricity production, still some industry. It wouldn't be pretty but people wouldn't catastrophicaly lack food, heating,... But it's true that I'd rather be in the US if (when?) that happen, and I certainly don't want to be in Germany, China, Dubai,...
 

Foler

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A map of the upcoming protests (saturday)

View attachment 189167
Gilets Jaunes - Carte Officielle des rassemblements

"A few thousands protesters". According to the governement.
Love it. I know a lot of people give you shit but I wish I could come help you bros out with your revolution for real. This is good stuff, keep up the great work Gurgeh. You guys have the opportunity to take the lead and show all those other eurocucks what greatness is. France for the French!
 

TJT

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So it would seem that the best case scenario for the EU is that France is able to give the Yellow Vest what they want but not leave the EU to do so. If the Yellow Vest is as strong as Gurgeh is saying than that isn't set in stone. The French can easily go back to their French roots here and just say, "fuck it and fuck you." My hats off to you guys.

France telling Britain to hold their wine and baguettes and watch this.

I am not familiar enough with the French government to even know if they have a way out. if Macron resigns or whatever that won't be enough. They can't have Macron 2 take his place and the EU itself will do anything to prevent a Euroskeptic from forming the new government. But Italy is well on its way to taking their own shitlord position.
 
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Fogel

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So it would seem that the best case scenario for the EU is that France is able to give the Yellow Vest what they want but not leave the EU to do so. If the Yellow Vest is as strong as Gurgeh is saying than that isn't set in stone. The French can easily go back to their French roots here and just say, "fuck it and fuck you." My hats off to you guys.

France telling Britain to hold their wine and baguettes and watch this.

I am not familiar enough with the French government to even know if they have a way out. if Macron resigns or whatever that won't be enough. They can't have Macron 2 take his place and the EU itself will do anything to prevent a Euroskeptic from forming the new government. But Italy is well on its way to taking their own shitlord position.
You bring up a good point, I don't know what would be sweeter, France leaving the EU, or the embarrassment that the UK will face when France does in 2-4~ months what they still haven't done in 2 years.
 

Gask

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Keep out of yellow vest revolt, France warns Italy, after populist ministers offer support to movement
While condemning violent acts, Mr Salvini, who is also interior minister, said he supported “honest citizens who protest against a president who governs against his people.” Mr Di Maio, who is the head of the Five Star Movement, offered the protesters the use of his party’s Rousseau system, an internet platform that allows supporters to vote for candidates and propose legislation, eyeing the prospect of the gilets jaunes becoming a nascent political party.

That earned him a sharp rebuke from Nathalie Loiseau, France’s minister for European affairs, who tweeted: “France refrains from giving lessons to Italy. Monsieurs Salvini and Di Maio should first put their own house in order.” The row intensified when Mr Di Maio accused the French of hypocrisy by calling for Italy to butt out of their business. “Maybe (Ms Loiseau) forgets that her president compared us to leprosy when talking about our government,” he said.

In June, Emmanuel Macron compared Eurosceptic, populist movements to a disease that needed to be resisted by moderates. “You can see them rise a bit like leprosy all across Europe, in countries where we thought that it would be impossible to see them again,” he said.
Yellow vests: France to crack down on unsanctioned protests
Speaking on French TV channel TF1, Prime Minister Philippe said the government would support a "new law punishing those who do not respect the requirement to declare [protests], those who take part in unauthorised demonstrations and those who arrive at demonstrations wearing face masks". Known troublemakers would be banned from taking part in demonstrations, in the same way known football hooligans have been banned from stadiums. "Those who question our institutions will not have the last word," Mr Philippe said on Monday.

In a sign that the government was taking a harder line, police arrested one of the protest leaders, truck driver Eric Drouet, last week for organising an unauthorised demonstration in Paris.

Senator Bruno Retailleau welcomed the news of the prime minister's plans, writing on Twitter that "hooded" troublemakers who participated in protests "must be severely punished". However Laurent Wauquiez, leader of the Republican party, tweeted that the move was not enough because it would not take "immediate effect". He said his party had previously proposed a state of emergency, adding: "Why not listen to us, at the risk of seeing the situation worsen Saturday after Saturday?"

Meanwhile left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon said the planned measures would mean that "demonstrators can no longer demonstrate". In a Twitter post, he described Mr Philippe as the "king of the Shadoks", a reference to bird-like cartoon characters featured in a popular French TV series and known for their ruthlessness.
Trump downgrades EU’s status from nation state to international organization
The downgrade from nation state to international organisation status reverses an Obama administration decision in 2016 to grant the EU an enhanced diplomatic role in Washington, and is being seen in Brussels as a snub reflecting a general antipathy to the EU in the Trump administration. The president has supported Brexit and has described the EU as a “foe”.

“We understand that there was a recent change in the way the diplomatic precedence list is implemented by the United States’ protocol,” Maja Kocijančič, spokeswoman for EU foreign affairs and security policy, said. She added: “We were not notified of any change.”

“We are discussing with the relevant services in the administration possible implications for the EU delegation in Washington,” Kocijančič said. “We expect the diplomatic practice established some years ago to be observed.”

Asked for comment, the state department sent out an automatic message saying that due to the government shutdown, “communications with the media will be limited to events and issues involving the safety of human life or the protection of property, or those determined to be essential to national security”.
 

iannis

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First one is pretty lol. That second one seems flailing and somewhat desperate... but I do have to agree that "those who arrive at demonstrations wearing facemasks" should be a cause for concern for everyone. That third one is fairly significant, but mostly I'm surprised that he hadn't already done it. Crossing I's and dotting T's.
 
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Gask

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The UK establishment, over the years, has been content to allow large crowds of activists to surround their opponents to jeer and threaten them but when that same tactic is used against them it's suddenly unacceptable.

Westminster protests: Free speech requires that we shut down the far-right
If you visit the green outside parliament this afternoon, there's a strong chance you'll be harassed and abused. That's especially true if you're a Remainer, or if your skin is not white, or if you're a woman. A small group of far-right thugs, wearing the yellow jackets popularised in the Paris demos, are bullying and trying to intimidate the people going to talk to the broadcasters.

This has been the case for a few weeks now. What started as a small, peaceful Remain protest outside parliament grew to include mainstream Brexiters, who were equally peaceful, and then, crucially, a few aggressive pro-Brexit men in yellow jackets. They've been chanting abuse, particularly at Sky, and particularly at presenter Kay Burley, political editor Faisal Islam, Corbyn-supporting commentator Owen Jones, Remain campaigner Femi Oluwole and Tory Remain MP Anna Soubry. What a coincidence. Two women, a gay man, a black man and an Asian man. I wonder what it is about these people in particular that a bunch of fascist thugs hate so much?

Fifty MPs have now written to Metropolitan Police commissioner Cressida Dick expressing "serious concerns about the deteriorating public order and security situation in and around the exterior of the parliamentary estate". They're right to do so. No-one has been hurt yet, but the videos make it quite clear that there is a sense of barely-restrained violence among the men there. It must be tackled now, before someone is assaulted.
UK: People who called remain MP Anna Soubry a Nazi are being investigated by police
Officers will look into whether or not a criminal offence was committed when insults were hurled at Ms Soubry as she gave live interviews on College Green on Monday. The Tory MP stopped her interview with the BBC mid-sentence to say: ‘I do object to being called a Nazi, actually. I just think this is astonishing, this is what has happened to our country. But let’s try and move on and be positive about things.’ Protesters later chanted slogans including ‘Liar, liar’ throughout a live interview with Ms Soubry on Sky News.

A spokesman for the Metropolitan Police said: ‘Police received a third-party report of a public order offence on Monday, 7 January, in the area of College Green. 'Officers are assessing if any crimes have been committed. There has been no arrest at this stage.’ Ms Soubry, the pro-EU MP for Broxtowe, said the behaviour of protesters was ‘seriously worrying’, adding: ‘I’m afraid the truth is that Brexit has unleashed these people. This is Britain now. This is not the country I know and love and these people do not represent our country and they need sorting out.’

Earlier on Monday, political commentator Owen Jones shared a video on Twitter which showed him being accosted by a group outside Parliament, including men wearing Union flags. They could be heard calling him a ‘traitor’ and a ‘horrible little man’ and accusing the Labour activist of writing ‘fake news’.
 

Chukzombi

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we warned them. "do you want new Hitler? this is how you get new Hitler." now you get new Mussolini.
Italy and Poland want ‘new spring’ in Europe: Salvini | One America News Network
WARSAW (Reuters) – Italy and Poland should join forces to reshape Europe, Italy’s far-right Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said on Wednesday during a visit to Warsaw to drum up support for a eurosceptic alliance to contest May elections to the European Parliament.
The eurosceptic governments in Rome and Warsaw are both keen to repatriate some EU powers from Brussels to national capitals and hope like-minded parties will do well in the May elections, which will follow Britain’s planned exit from the bloc in March.


“Poland and Italy will be part of the new spring of Europe, the renaissance of European values,” he told a press conference with Poland’s Interior Minister Joachim Brudzinski.
 

Kiroy

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It's interesting to imagine where the EU would go if Macron is deposed. Germany cannot sustain its economy without the EU. About 55% of German GDP is from exports and about half of that is to the EU. Even a 5% drop in their GDP would immediately result in a recession.

The Germans and their allies in the EC literally cannot allow a eurosceptic government to replace Macron, it would be an existential crisis for economic engine for the entire EU experiment.
Begun has, the war of the cucks.
 

Gurgeh

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That second one seems flailing and somewhat desperate... but I do have to agree that "those who arrive at demonstrations wearing facemasks" should be a cause for concern for everyone.
When it was antifas and Soros black block for 10 years no one cared, but with yellow vests gotta pass a law NOW. The right wing tried to pass the very same law last year and Macron said no.