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Arden

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I doubt Trump intends to keep the tariffs up for long (at least not with Canada, and probably not MX).

Again, I'm certainly not an economist, but you don't have to be to understand how Trump thinks. Some people show you the stick and show you the carrot and let you decide which one you want. Trump's style has always been to bludgeon you with the stick first, then offer you half a carrot. Sure, you'd rather have the whole carrot, but you'll take half if it means he stops hitting you with the stick.

My guess is he quickly renegotiates some stuff with Canada and MX, ends the tariffs, claims a victory, and moves on to something else.

Edit: Which means some people stand to make a lot of money when the market quickly rebounds in a big way...

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Blazin

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1738620922815.png


Unreal, not going to stop until they have a growth slow down. Maybe too many are bearish on them growing 50% YoY for many years yet. You see the insane stock growth then look at results and see $3.7B in rev for this year. Market valuation $235B just a casual 63 times next years sales.

There is high valuations we talk about with big tech, and then there is PLTR in an entirely different league, not even playing the same game. It's not unusual for the market to value 50% YoY growth but that normally comes in the form of 10-20x sales. this is getting the AI nitro juice.
 
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Falstaff

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Too busy to pay attention this morning, none of my stop losses triggered and tariffs are already over and done with.

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Khane

Got something right about marriage
20,709
14,479
Don't worry boys. My stop triggered at $73 earlier this month. Which is roughly $420k (nice) worth of value compared to now (I had 15,079 shares).

But I was being prudent and protecting unrealized gains when setting those stops and such is the market.

And also....

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Blazin

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We know who's to blame...

View attachment 572177
Started working on this around 4am this morning, I'm often critical of people yelling at a stock or the market for not doing what they deem to be appropriate rather than try to understand what you're missing.

On this one I'm striking out. With TSLA I can see that today's price is not for an auto manufacturer but what the company could become, do the homework and you can see the path. I can see a TSLA in the future that auto sales are such a small part of revenue there will be talk of just getting rid of it. Now people who don't get that will spend time talking about how many model 3s where sold etc and then be confused by the price action.

Most ardent bulls on TSLA can articulate the vision they are investing in, with PLTR I can't even find hodlers to explain their own vision to me. What does a 1-3T PLTR company look like, what is its business, who are it's customers, what is the moat on that revenue?

The company is so small it's hard to really wrap your head around the dynamics, if you saw a headline"X company receives 3.9B Fed contract." One might thing that's a decent contract nothing particular interesting about it , Lockheed has numerous single contracts 4x that amount. That is PLTR's entire annual forecasted revenue.

PLTR pays it's employees in stock more than it makes in income. Insiders and employees do nothing but sell. I'm actually not trying to be critical I just can't see it. I listen to Karp interviews and again I just come away with nothing that says $235B valuation . Headlines now "PLTR Blows pasts expectations!" That blow past expectations was tens of millions, millions not billions. And investors just increased valuation 30,000 million for a tens of millions beat.

Contagion is real, while I do believe it's always prudent to seek what one doesn't understand vs what the market doesn't understand, this MAY be nothing but hype gone hyperbolic even more so then when the market for a brief period thought an exercise bike might be the next Apple.
 

Khane

Got something right about marriage
20,709
14,479
Started working on this around 4am this morning, I'm often critical of people yelling at a stock or the market for not doing what they deem to be appropriate rather than try to understand what you're missing.

On this one I'm striking out. With TSLA I can see that today's price is not for an auto manufacturer but what the company could become, do the homework and you can see the path. I can see a TSLA in the future that auto sales are such a small part of revenue there will be talk of just getting rid of it. Now people who don't get that will spend time talking about how many model 3s where sold etc and then be confused by the price action.

Most ardent bulls on TSLA can articulate the vision they are investing in, with PLTR I can't even find hodlers to explain their own vision to me. What does a 1-3T PLTR company look like, what is its business, who are it's customers, what is the moat on that revenue?

The company is so small it's hard to really wrap your head around the dynamics, if you saw a headline"X company receives 3.9B Fed contract." One might thing that's a decent contract nothing particular interesting about it , Lockheed has numerous single contracts 4x that amount. That is PLTR's entire annual forecasted revenue.

PLTR pays it's employees in stock more than it makes in income. Insiders and employees do nothing but sell. I'm actually not trying to be critical I just can't see it. I listen to Karp interviews and again I just come away with nothing that says $235B valuation . Headlines now "PLTR Blows pasts expectations!" That blow past expectations was tens of millions, millions not billions. And investors just increased valuation 30,000 million for a tens of millions beat.

Contagion is real, while I do believe it's always prudent to seek what one doesn't understand vs what the market doesn't understand, this MAY be nothing but hype gone hyperbolic even more so then when the market for a brief period thought an exercise bike might be the next Apple.

Does anybody know what they actually do other than "Defense Contracts!" and "AI!"?
 

Blazin

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Fidelity prompt to participate in an IPO in Sailpoint, anyone have interaction with them in their business? Other than being a security company don't know anything about them.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Does anybody know what they actually do other than "Defense Contracts!" and "AI!"?
In essence, as I understand it, their core product has the ability to take data spread across multiple data sets, software and computers and make it all searchable through the PLTR front end. I could be wrong on this, but this is how I grasp it. The reason they tout being part of catching Bin Laden is Gotham (or maybe on of the other ones), thier software that let the search for key words/images etc across all the computers they had it installed on. Again, I could be wrong and am probably understating what it does, but that is what their core product does.
 

Mist

REEEEeyore
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In essence, as I understand it, their core product has the ability to take data spread across multiple data sets, software and computers and make it all searchable through the PLTR front end. I could be wrong on this, but this is how I grasp it. The reason they tout being part of catching Bin Laden is Gotham (or maybe on of the other ones), thier software that let the search for key words/images etc across all the computers they had it installed on. Again, I could be wrong and am probably understating what it does, but that is what their core product does.
There are a dozen things that do this.
A B2B (or largely B2G in this case) business isn't valuable for what their software does, it's valuable for the relationships they've established.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Started working on this around 4am this morning, I'm often critical of people yelling at a stock or the market for not doing what they deem to be appropriate rather than try to understand what you're missing.

On this one I'm striking out. With TSLA I can see that today's price is not for an auto manufacturer but what the company could become, do the homework and you can see the path. I can see a TSLA in the future that auto sales are such a small part of revenue there will be talk of just getting rid of it. Now people who don't get that will spend time talking about how many model 3s where sold etc and then be confused by the price action.

Most ardent bulls on TSLA can articulate the vision they are investing in, with PLTR I can't even find hodlers to explain their own vision to me. What does a 1-3T PLTR company look like, what is its business, who are it's customers, what is the moat on that revenue?

The company is so small it's hard to really wrap your head around the dynamics, if you saw a headline"X company receives 3.9B Fed contract." One might thing that's a decent contract nothing particular interesting about it , Lockheed has numerous single contracts 4x that amount. That is PLTR's entire annual forecasted revenue.

PLTR pays it's employees in stock more than it makes in income. Insiders and employees do nothing but sell. I'm actually not trying to be critical I just can't see it. I listen to Karp interviews and again I just come away with nothing that says $235B valuation . Headlines now "PLTR Blows pasts expectations!" That blow past expectations was tens of millions, millions not billions. And investors just increased valuation 30,000 million for a tens of millions beat.

Contagion is real, while I do believe it's always prudent to seek what one doesn't understand vs what the market doesn't understand, this MAY be nothing but hype gone hyperbolic even more so then when the market for a brief period thought an exercise bike might be the next Apple.
I love the company. I love that they help the government and local PDs catch bad guys and do other shit. I never envisioned selling my day 1 shares. I held them through the then peak meme stock period when they hit $45 (and then ran all the way down to like $7 or so). I sold in the mid $50s this time around because I could not find a single reason to justify the stock price. Its PE is around 450. It will take 450 years of earnings to earn your investment back. That's not an investment. This isn't FB. PLTR doesn't get to keep all that data they are touching and monetize it. I currently see the stock on the same trajectory as GME at this point.
 

Blazin

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Final January number for me is +$37,962, which may be my best January ever. I spent the majority of the time frustrated, which is kind of odd. Just some really frustrating trades. And of course the account I'm tracking on X is by far the worst performer. It's the account that has NVDA so that's no surprise, so I guess I should be happy to eek out a gain in that portfolio despite top holding dropping 20% in a day. Top gains came from large S&P Purchase held from 12/19 to 1/22 accounting for almost $19k of total gain. (S&P was 2.1% for the month, which is quite a healthy start)

Don't expect an easy February, certainly started with a bang.
 
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Mist

REEEEeyore
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I love the company. I love that they help the government and local PDs catch bad guys and do other shit. I never envisioned selling my day 1 shares. I held them through the then peak meme stock period when they hit $45 (and then ran all the way down to like $7 or so). I sold in the mid $50s this time around because I could not find a single reason to justify the stock price. Its PE is around 450. It will take 450 years of earnings to earn your investment back. That's not an investment. This isn't FB. PLTR doesn't get to keep all that data they are touching and monetize it. I currently see the stock on the same trajectory as GME at this point.
I rarely hear Palantir discussed when it comes to local PDs.

It's always Clearview AI.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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