Investing General Discussion

SeanDoe1z1 said:

At the time I had the majority of it in energy index fund just because its an easy slide with Trump then once coronachan started the only faith I had were in the major conglomerates. I honestly will probably set it and forget it to an aggressive vanguard index and just consider myself lucky over the last couple of years.

I have a horrible habit of playing with my "funny" money account and chalking up losses as "learning" experiences. Basically a level 1 paladin attacking level 4 bats wondering why I keep dying in Qeynos

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My personal experience is that I own 4 different index ETFs for various market exposure. QQQ is the cream of the crop. Part of it is its lack of Financials which means it hasnt been carrying that lodestone with it. QQQ has nearly doubled the return of my SP500 index this year. It has also outperformed the SP500 growth index. Spend a few minutes looking at the basket of holdings before you choose. Those weights in the top 10 make a difference over the long haul.

Sanrith Descartes said:

Yeah

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Would you consider sharing them?

Araysar said:

Would you consider sharing them?

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For people...
examples are RampCapitalLLC, stockcats, Chigrl, stocktwits, oddstats, trinhnomics, Robert Shiller and other various economists, Jim Cramer, and a host of others.

for stocks, i tend to track stocks I own and stocks I may be looking to invest in using the $<symbol>

We started the trading day in the red. In the modern world when markets go risk off they tend to flee to safe havens...
AAPL + 3.5%
MSFT + 1.12%
GOOG + 1.73%
FB + 6.5%
AMZN + 1.1%

Since we were discussing index funds earlier. Here is a comparison of the QQQ vs the the other major index ETFs (SPY, DIA, AGG, ITOT (total US market) and IXUS (Global minus US) for the last 12 months. Its eye-opening. QQQ up 50%. The next closest is up 16%. On a 100k investment that is a 34k difference.

Hey Blazin I need your expertise. How at 8:21:25am did 200 shares of the IVV (iShares S&P500 index) trade down 25% at $248.96 (from $334.23)? Even if a retailer fucked up a ticket the Bid/Ask couldnt have been that skewed on something with this liquidity. Is it possible they fucked up and used a market order and at that random instant there were no bids except something down 25%?






Edit: PSTH.UT did the same thing but it is so illiquid that it makes sense.

Sooo, executive order attacking two chinese tech firms. The way china works, they WILL retaliate and quickly when it goes into effect with what they feel is an equivalent measure. Looking at all of their options in tech, I believe the most vulnerable companies by far are Amazon, Apple, and Chipmakers. While amazon is vulnerable, I don't think it's a logical choice. TSLA is also especially vulnerable, but I believe china wants to steal their self-driving research first or has some other goal where they'll get a pass.

If I had to hazard a guess, a heavy sanction of apple and a general tightening of chip supply is the most likely route that I think they'll take. Anyone else have postulations on what might be most vulnerable to them? I plan to limit my exposure to tech in about 35-40 days cause china will definitely do something if this EO takes force.

If anything it would be an opportunity to buy more into big tech like AAPL.

TJT said:

If anything it would be an opportunity to buy more into big tech like AAPL.

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China can cause short term disruptions that'd smear egg on apple's face, but yea, I'm convinced they have plenty of money to set up shop somewhere else and be fine long term.

China is in a precarious position right now. They will hem and haw but not take much if any action. Less than 12 weeks before the election they wont risk an escalation now on the off-chance Trump wins and they get stuck with a pissed off Trump with nothing to lose for four more years. He has the big "recognize Taiwan" stick and they wont risk it. China always plays the long game.

Sanrith Descartes said:

China is in a precarious position right now. They will hem and haw but not take much if any action.

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That's definitely the approach a western mind would take to this situation. Chinese people... I'm not confident that China would allow the disgrace of their companies being shamed without retaliation. Face is a big deal to them, and staying quiet during times like these makes a leader look shameful/weak. There's time before it really matters at least.

Blazin said:

Same issue as last time it's the ADF exchange which means it is an old trade being logged. There is no way to know when that off book trade actually occurred. You can see the bid/ask didn't change on that trade. Any trade that you see the last trade seems completely out of kilter with the bid/ask at the time of the trade then it is likely just an old trade being logged in the system.

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So trades don't all have to be logged when they occur? It seems like that shouldn't be ok. Based on the price that trade had to be a while ago.

Berkshire reported today. Buffet spent 5 billion of his airline fire-sale buying back his own stock.

Pro Tip: Don't buy 1.5 million shares the day before the public announcement. Especially when the trading volume the day before that wasn't even 60k.