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This is also why dividend paying names get crushed in high rate environments. Who wants to own something like T or KO when you have underlying stock price volatility in order to get your 3-6% div yield? Stock price can dive and you’ve got to claw your way back to break even. Why not just lock in...

To quickly add on this, inversions happen early in these cycles as most just think the economic turbulence is short lived. It takes much longer for the long durations to catch up. The Fed has been repeating itself for months now about “higher for longer”. Investors are finally taking that on...

Tesla double miss. How the fuck this is green AH is beyond me. 16:01 [TSLA] Reports Q3 $0.66 v $0.73e, Rev $23.4B v $24.4Be; Cybertruck deliveries on track for later this year; More than doubled the size of its AI training compute - Affirms FY23 vehicle production at 1.8M and to remain ahead...

Nearly every duration at or above 5% yield.

Fun watch.

Yea, I was by no means implying it a buy signal today. Just noticeable change in its recent weakness. Worth keeping an eye on. I don't like the overall index retracement here so far. Got 2 more hours till close, but we are still stuck in a range here.

Good to note this, as IWM lead the weakness before the market came off the year's highs recently. It's been a monster today.

08:46 (US) Biden administration confirms plans to halt shipments to China of more advanced AI chips designed by Nvidia and others (as expected) - Nvidia's A800 and H800 chips will be hit by the new regulations, due to a change in chip parameters aimed at capturing a greater number of chips

14:50(US) DOJ officials said to be considering case against realator fees - press - Source TradeTheNews.com Yes please.

Yep, $TLT down 1.8% but indexes are at high of days. Let's see which one flinches first.

Those sentiment and inflation expectation numbers started the slide, but the macro news of Saudi shelving the plans of normalizing Israeli relations and have started talks with Iran due to Hamas conflict has basically sent market into risk off mode. I'd be careful longs today. Going into a...

Those do scar deep! When my great grandmother passed away, we found she had stockpiled tons of canned food in the cellar and other necessities in her attic. Not a hoarder by any means, as her house was neat and tidy. Having lived through the great depression, I think food scarcity just gets...

30yr bond auction just made the market shit the bed. Yields and dollar spike. 13:02*(US) TREASURY $20B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 4.837% V 4.345% PRIOR; BID TO COVER 2.35 V 2.46 PRIOR AND 2.39 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS

Bloomberg article this morning talking about the failed IPO and just happened to casually mention that their 2023 revenues year to date are 20% lower than the previous year over the same period. Doesn’t sound great to me.

Priced at $46 and opened at $41. Immediately thought to myself: "who the fuck still buys these shoes?"

This is partly why there is a retirement crisis for GenX+ generations. When pensions basically went out the window, too many thought Social Security was supposed to be the entirety of their retirement and will be surely disappointed. The sad thing is, 401k type contributions take a hell of a lot...

Shouldn't be surprising. Money rotating around. Div names got slaughtered when rates were at highs. Likely some profit taking out of tech that has moved back into the oversold sectors / names the last 2 days as rates and dollar have dipped.

09:48(US) Fed’s Bostic (non-voter): Policy rate is sufficiently restrictive to get inflation to 2%; We do NOT need to raise rates anymore

06:59 PLTR US Army awards Palantir up to $250M 3-yr AI/ML contract in support of JADC2 capabilities - Source TradeTheNews.com

For perspective:

Limit down? What kind of morons are these? What's the crude saying? "Buy on the bombs"? Typically markets dip and then rally on anything war related. Nevermind the fact that this Israel / Hamas shit has been going on for an eternity and is nothing new. Perhaps the scale of this is bigger, but...

I think that thesis is kind of misplaced. You can crank interest rates to 50% but it doesnt take current wealth out of the system. You just cripple those who rely on debt. You start making average family houses $90k, then they will just be snapped up instantly by the deep pocketed institutions...

Make that 9% and I will back up the truck.

Payroll numbers coming in huge. +336k vs 170k expected. 08:39(US) Fed futures currently price 1st FOMC rate cut in Sept 2024 v June 2024 before US jobs report

That's amateur hour.

Wouldnt read into anything at all today. Keep an eye on DXY and yields, but expect nothing until NFP report tomorrow. We arent going to break down or break out of this range until then. Market is in standby and we are something like 18% below avg volumes today to reflect that. Go outside and...

@Sanrith Descartes KO and PEP absolutely slaughtered today.

Dude, you know better than this. KO is a dividend name, not a growth name. Think its safe to say Coca-Cola has hit global saturation quite some time ago. Then factor in healthier lifestyles, etc. This ticker isn't a grower by any stretch of the imagination.

ADP data hit and was well below expectations. 89k vs 150k expected. Dollar and yields cooled on this news. You must keep an eye on these, as if they start rounding back up, markets will come back under pressure. That said, we are extremely oversold on the daily on indexes (RSI & BBs). A bounce...

Big P is right. I have been shouting this from the rooftops, but despite the declining revs, they sit on an immense pile of cash. They are the safest tech port in the storm. (Until they aren't anymore)

Dow also wiped out all 2023 gains today.

All of those dividend names (and utilities) are being killed due to treasury yields. Why risk underlying stock price movements of PEP / KO etc when you can just pick up 5-6% treasuries. IWM has led this entire down move. It was weakest first and continually fails to show any sign of bounce. I...

You and me both. My TLT and avg:

JOLTS data coming in hot by nearly 1mil. Still huge demand in employment, hence the big down move at 10am. 10:00*(US) AUG JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 9.61M V 8.82ME - Source TradeTheNews.com

It's all about balance. I kind of joke with my friends that I "accidentally" retired in 2018. I resigned with my company of ~16 years or so at the time. A couple months later, they hired me back as a consultant. That work is maybe 2 months of the whole year on travel, the rest of the time I am...

I would retire today if we hit that. @Tirant Scaling into TLT. Doesn't have to be an all or nothing trade. Keep in mind, we could have another bank blow up and immediate yield reversal. At the pace of rate acceleration recently, we are getting more at risk of something "breaking" in the system.