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2B buy side MOC

14:40 (US) Fed Chair Powell: 75bps rate hike is not something we are actively considering; Expectations are that we'll start to see inflation flattening; Some evidence core PCE is peaking - post rate decision Q&A - We will not hesitate to go higher on rates if we have to; We could go higher...

I will post a bullet point summary after the Q&A ends.

Powell: "75bp hikes are not being actively considered". Then market pushed a bit.

Basically the Hike and Balance runoff was inline with expectations. No surprises, hence relatively flat action. The Q&A could produce some tradeable action. Nothing here for me so far.

14:00 *(US) FOMC RAISES TARGET RANGE BY 50 BPS TO 0.75-1.00% (AS EXPECTED); EXPECTS 'ONGOING' INCREASES IN RATES WILL BE APPROPRIATE - IOER raised to 0.90% v 0.90%e - Vote was unanimous - Balance sheet runoff to begin June 1st at $47.5B/mo; To phase in over three months (as expected); To rise to...

Friendly reminder. FOMC notes at 2pm (rate hike / balance sheet). Then the Q&A at 2:30pm https://www.federalreserve.gov/live-broadcast.htm

Market running a bit on the back of a positive GDP revision. Anything positive is good after the last GDP miss. 11:51 (US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q2 GDP forecast to 2.2% from 1.6%

This is the real takeaway from that article:

11:34 (US) Treasury Sec Yellen: Feel quite good about strength of US economy - Q1 negative GDP print was a negative sign; Final sales grew 3% last quarter I feel is a better read on strength of economy - America is outperforming other countries - Inflation is too high and needs to be brought...

Fun bear porn reading. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-04/78-year-old-investor-preps-for-biggest-bear-market-of-my-life?sref=9HT8lz40

I am quite surprised as well, considering that report. Might look to take a position if we have some panic selling after FOMC.

I honestly think the 50bp is irrelevant at this point. The big uncertainty is the pace of balance sheet reductions. The Q&A will likely be the most volatile part of this. Also, keep in mind: if you are trying to make trades post-FOMC announcements, the initial move has often reversed in the...

@Sanrith Descartes Especially considering a great Q2 / FY22 guide. 16:10 [AMD] Reports Q1 $1.13 v $0.91e, Rev $5.89B v $5.00Be; Raises FY22 outlook citing higher AMD organic growth and the addition of Xilinx business - Guides Q2 Rev $6.5B +/- $200M +69% y/y v $5.13Be, non-GAAP gross margin...

You mean this dip?

Because the truth is, you never know where the bottom is. We could have put it in yesterday and never see this price again.. or, we could add 5% lower and drop another 10% further after that. I stated yesterday to someone asking about their annual IRA contribution that the SPY 410 level was...

10 year yield ticking over 3%

I think we are in a really good spot here. We are tryting to hold the year's low of ~410 SPY. That is a pretty good entry. Keep in mind, we do have FOMC rate hike Weds. There could be volatility over the next few days. If I were in your shoes (long time horizon). I would probably fill half...

10:04 (US) FINRA proposes limiting access to leveraged and inverse ETFs FINRA's Regulatory Notice 22-08 includes a solicitation of comments on investors' ability to trade "complex products"—including leveraged and inverse funds ("L&I Funds"). In its notice, FINRA articulates the "concern" that...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-02/five-minute-flash-crash-in-nordic-equity-markets-jolts-europe?srnd=premium-europe&sref=9HT8lz40

SPY just punched through the year's lows here premarket. Long way till the open, but I would not be surprised we see more panic. Also note: FOMC Tues-Weds.

VIX 34

MOC 7B to the sale side.

That book wasn't on my list. I may check it out if you liked it. In order of impact for me, personally: Trade Mindfully by Gary Dayton Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas The Art and Science of Technical Analysis by Adam Grimes Antifragile by Nassim Taleb The Candlestick Course by Steve Nison...

ABBV 07:43 [ABBV] Reports Q1 $3.16 v $3.15e, Rev $13.5B v $13.5Be -cutting EPS outlook - Cuts FY22 $13.92-14.12 v $14.13e (prior $14.00-14.20)* includes an unfavorable impact of $0.08 per share related to acquired IPR&D and milestones expense incurred during the first quarter 2022. The...

China names up today on the back of: 03:43 (CN) China said to end regulatory scrutiny over Big Tech and give sector bigger role in boosting slowing economy - SCMP - A joint regulatory meeting is set to take place on Saturday, Apr 30th to put all regulators on the same page regarding Beijing’s...

After hours AAPL came down because of: -Apple executives warned it could sustain a hit of up to $8B in the current quarter from headwinds including supply chain shortages and factory shutdowns in China, underscoring how the challenges posed by the pandemic are far from over for the world’s most...

16:30 [AAPL] Reports Q2 $1.52 v $1.43e, Rev $97.3B v $94.5Be; Authorizes $90B increase to its share buyback program; Raises Quarterly dividend 4.5% to $0.23 from $0.22 - Gross margin % v 42.5% y/y (calculated) - iPhone Rev $50.6B v $47.9B y/y v $49.2Be - iPad Rev $7.7B v $7.8B y/y - Services...

AAPL saves the day.

@Sanrith Descartes its like you dont even read my posts.. lol

The INTC move is due to lowered guidance. - Guides Q2 $0.70 v $0.85e, Adj Rev $18.0B v $18.4Be

AMZN huge miss 16:01 [AMZN] Reports Q1 -$7.56** v +$8.73e, Rev $116.4B v $117.0Be - Source TradeTheNews.com **First quarter 2022 net loss includes a pre-tax valuation loss of $7.6 billion included in non-operating expense from our common stock investment in Rivian Automotive, Inc.

The transaction hasnt completed yet. There is an agreement, but no closure yet. Can Musk use stuff like this to walk from the deal?

Not quite stock related, but moves the markets. Readng through the headlines, I found this kind of hilarious (in a dark way):

TDOC -40% (Trading $35 per share) Cathie will have to explain this one to her shareholders. 7% weight of her fund. Her cost average is ~$163.

FB saves the day. 16:05 [FB] Reports Q1 $2.72 v $2.54e, Rev $27.9B v $28.2Be - Guides Q2 Rev $28.0-30.0B v $30.5Be - Affirms FY22 Capex $29-34B (prior: $29-34B) - Cuts FY22 Opex $87-92B (prior: $90-95B) - Assumes FX to be ~3% headwind to y/y growth in Q2 - Daily active users (DAUs) 1.96B...

3B MOC sale

The thing with active trading (day / swings) is that it IS a fulltime job. You're constantly refining a strategy, constantly chart reading, digging through fundamentals. Then your're tackling trading psychology and reading books on that. You're still going to take gut punches that set you back...

SPY / QQQ sold that opening bounce hard. Yikes.

Re Archegos: portfolio from $1.5 billion to $35 billion in a single year. What a hustle.