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Grabbed SPY, JPM, NVDA, and a few more MSFT today.

Both SPY and QQQ at some support here. My BP is going down. 40% cash left.

More of this wont help either: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-hatching-plot-to-replace-ukraine-government-u-k-says-11642890601?mod=hp_lead_pos3

AAPL earnings will have a pretty big weight on the indices. Remember in December AAPL just kept powering onwards and upwards? These were the headlines at the time: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-02/apple-tells-suppliers-iphone-demand-has-slowed-as-holidays-near?sref=9HT8lz40...

Talking trends: Previously, we had almost perfectly timed monthly dips (often timed with options expiry) and in days would recover and continue to new highs. First change in the trend was September. We dipped far harder out of channel and took far longer to recover, hell the first bounce was...

Closed on the lows with some big volume (options expiry). Let's see what next week brings.

1B MOC sale.

I always keep a chunk on the side for short term opportunites. Maybe we get the Fed surprise with a .50 interest rate hike opener, or Russia gets frisky with Ukraine. Might not happen, but I want plenty of dry powder ready to fire if either happens.

FWIW, I'm still 60% cash shopping for bargains. (Was 85-90% since sentiment shifted)

Sound reasoning behind this. Remember a month or two ago I was linking Apple news when the stock was irrationally ripping higher. This was in the wake of Apple themselves reporting reduced iPhone demand. Then reported chip issues across multiple products. Then a supplier reported they had halted...

I think market looks fairly precarious here. We are near day low and drifting below 200D SPY. Next support is a fair bit away that I see. All seems compounded by the fact this would be the first breach of the 200D since pandemic lows in spring 2020 bringing more fear driven selling. With...

Where's @Shonuff when we need more Tom Lee "everything rally" CNBC videos!

TradingView is fantastic. (Desktop app version is better than their web platform). I know plenty of day / swing traders using it. For the price, I think it's the best value for money out there. This is especially true if you grab their BlackFriday deal where they knock about 60% off annual price...

Lowered guidance though

I’m in Italy on a business trip for a month. Pretty shitty timing, but I’ve got a huge cash pile ready to go to work. Got some orders out there based on the SPY 200D. At this rate I feel we will overshoot the QQQ 200D. As always, I’ve got some cash leftover if we see even lower!

PTON carnage. "Halting production due to waning demand." Yikes.

With that kind of close, I am expecting a gap down tomorrow. You will likely get a better fill !

We're working on taking out yesterday's SPY low. This is gonna be a fun ride.

These market bounces are getting weaker and weaker.

Thing thats really annoying is I took a lucrative 1 month contract gig with my old company and flying out to Italy on Thursday. Seems like the worst possible timing. I am going to have to just put some orders out at levels and see what happens.

Considering QQQ hasn't seen the 200D since March / April of 2020, I think blowing that far below current 200D would be very very extreme. I think tech would catch a fairly significant bid coming into the ~365 level. Ukraine kickoff being the exception.

QQQs pulled into the big 370 pivot and held for now. Tomorrow could get quite interesting. Think theres a decent chance of seeing a down open with QQQ into the 200D.

SPY testing the 100D again. At the same time newswires put out a WH comment about Ukraine situation being "an extremely dangerous crisis. Russia could launch an attack at any point". This is tough trading here!

So, this is where I really think we test the market. We backtested the Jan10th SPY low, which was essentially right on top of the 100D support. We have bounced markedly here, but the question is how much? The fact we have tested these lows so quickly (8 days) is bearish in itself. The question...

SPY into the pivot low of 10Jan. 100D is imminent.

May last year.

My post was back in Sept last year (trading $100'ish). Early bearish views and shorts in Dec/Jan ($160s). *sigh*

In aquisitions, you ususally just see the price relatively flat around the buyout price. However, ATVI giving up a lot from the highs. $92 in premarket down to $83 currently ($95 buyout price)

RBLX moving in a sympathy move.

Confirmed @$95 per share

I think you have the wrong idea here. Yield is inversely correlated to bond prices. Lower demand (less buying) sends bond prices lower, and simultaneously drives the yields up.

We've reclaimed the trend on the SPY. Still a while till open. Today should be fun.

We're a long way off to the open, but pre looks really ugly. From what I discussed a while back, we are below the macro ascending support trend line on both the SPY and QQQ this morning. We could get bought up a bit and open back above, but we can equally expect SPY to go test the 100D...

$2B MOC to the buy side.

Equally, being Fri going into a 3 day weekend and the last 2 days of weakness, I expected risk-off sentiment. SPY daily candle actually looks fairly healthy here, nearly testing the macro ascending trend again for the bounce. Next week could be continuation, unless some Ukraine nonsense kicks off.

Sometimes, you just gotta roll the dice. On a serious note. LABU is putting in the biggest volume on the daily, seemingly ever. On a big green dildo candle. This could be my best timed trade ever.

That Sept dip was my $151 initial entry.

I was greedy. No fills.

MSFT had held really strong when the indexes were taking the afternoon dump. Shoulda loaded more.

SPY daily candles looking god damn ugly the last 2 days. However, we are coming into the macro ascending support trend line with the 100D not much further below that. Looking for some deals, but leaving plenty of buying power at the ready in case we get really crazy and want to visit the 200D...