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NVDA >6% today alone.

4950 Soft landing idea meets reality

My brokers: Lightspeed: Day trades TDA/Schwab (Think or Swim): Swing trades and options Fidelity: 401k / IRAs Paid Tools: TradingView (charting & financials) TradingVue (trade logs and metrics tracking) Trade the News (live news wire / squawk) Bloomberg news (for reading finance news on the go)

Well, didnt expect that. We're off to the races again. Crazy.

I've got a feeling Powell is going to come out and poo poo all over the market at 2pm (2:30 press conference). In past meetings, he has specifically said markets and yields were doing the job for them. That obviously isn't the case anymore. Betting he does the whole "we're not even talking about...

Small print.. *lifetime of the company. :cool:

Pretty darn cheap hedge at this level.

The thing you REALLY need to consider is that compounding works both ways. That 1% AUM fee each year also compounds against you (some are as high as 2-3%). Fees are the bane of long term investing accounts. Real talk, 98%+ in this thread should just be DCA into the S&P500 and forgetting the...

We don’t live in that mess. We are 15min from the beach on the south coast. UK has massive issues with speculative buyers and shady entities parking their money in hard assets, to the point London is nicknamed the laundromat. Oligarch and petro dollar shenanigans galore. There is also a massive...

Thanks for reinforcing my point? Now add up the previous 10 years and the trajectory of the next 10 years, compound the issue of underbuilding... and how is this not an issue? Some countries had speculative foreign ownership driving crazy valuations and pushing affordability out of reach for...

This. Instead of open ownership, it’d just get obfuscated by shell companies overseas. There’s basically a free for all in the US for foreign ownership, so it’s easy to hide.

Yields moved again on the consumer confidence data and the inflation expectation data baked in it. - 1-year inflation expectations 3.1% v 4.3%e (lowest since March 2021) - 5-10 year inflation expectations 2.8% v 3.1%e (lowest since Sep 2022) All of the data today puts pressure on the Fed and...

TLDR version:

If you want this for the youth in the US, you could consider joining the military. It's been a long while, but my time as a Navy ET (Electronics Technician) was basically 18 months of pure electronics school and troubleshooting down to a component level. 8-10 hours a day, all day, every day. It...

@Daidraco As someone who’s lived in half a dozen countries or more over the last 20 years, I’ve never in my life heard of any landlord making tenants responsible for replacing big ticket appliances. That would be an absolute deal breaker for me. Why the fuck am I paying for someone else’s...

Haven't read up on chatGPT in a few months, but the glaringly obvious flaw was it doesn't have live financial data whatsoever. In fact, the entire AI database was based on year(s) old archive data. Kind of useless for making any kind of forward projections. You could perhaps build some advanced...

For those huge 1 day moves, it never hurts to take some of it off the table. Never has to be an all or nothing in / out trade. Nice work. I nearly wrote a reply to you yesterday commenting how nicely IWM was consolidating on the daily chart, but figured you were aware and deleted.

Further on this, value / dividend stocks were getting beaten up also due to Treasuries. Why put in underlying capital risk for a 3-4% dividend stock when you could buy a 6mo-2yr treasuries paying 5% - 5.5% with zero downside risk whatsoever? Yields have cooled off now, so there's been a...

Sad news on Munger. Legacy can be summed as simple as this:

I would retire all day long with 10MM. Why would you want a new business at that point? It would have to be some hobby that you really enjoy and just happen to make money off of. With $10M and recent treasury rates, we were recently around 5% on a 20yr note. That's $500k per year in completely...

I was merely making commentary on the day. $T was my best day trade of the entire year, and my 2nd highest profit ticker of the year. This is my top 10 winners YTD. Largest profit from top to bottom.

It’s getting to the point that this isn’t exclusive to houses and vehicles anymore. Everyone it trying to jump into the installment payment (buy now pay later) industry. No this isn’t made up:

@Sanrith Descartes You can have hidden orders on exchanges. Lightspeed is just one broker example. Good way to hide massive liquidity give / takes. You can type how many shares of your trade you want visible, or just flip to "Hidden" all of the time. You can really run into this stuff day...

Bullish? US Credit-Rating Outlook Changed to Negative by Moody’s US Credit-Rating Outlook Changed to Negative by Moody’s

https://www.slashfilm.com/1443470/disney-delay-marvel-deadpool-3-captain-america-4-blade-more/ FCF boost for today. No media revenues for tomorrow. Just as I predicted.

Not the Oracle!?

30Yr auction going wrong again. Markets dont like it. Long end yield spike across the board. TLT -3% *(US) TREASURY $24B 30-YEAR BOND AUCTION DRAWS 4.769% V 4.189% PRIOR; BID TO COVER 2.24 V 2.42 PRIOR AND 2.38 OVER THE LAST FOUR AUCTIONS; >500 bps tail - Source TradeTheNews.com

I had read about DIS FCF in Q3 was 3x the size of their entire FY22 FCF. Reigning in costs is important. However, I am curious about how much of that cash is due to them axing streaming and film media projects after the recent bad press and box office bombs. This just means there is a longer gap...

Re EVs: You guys do know that it takes a lot of time and capital to scale up a new car company? The upfront costs are substantial and it takes many years to achieve profitability. Investors like to see demand to scale into. For perspective, Tesla took 17 YEARS to become profitable and that only...

IWM also down 1.6% today isn't confidence inspiring. This has been the leading indicator for months now. In the same boat as Blazin in that I am waiting to see how the first real pullbacks are treated. Need to see some buying demand to add anything back.

Front page of Bloomberg: Stock is still only down ~1% after hours. Can't kill this thing.

All of that said, Apple has had declining revenues all year and still just plowed on upwards in share price. 117B > 94B > 81B

My SPY gain from 410.5 I have trimmed half, as I am skeptical of AAPL earnings tonight and leading into a potential Fri risk-off move. (yes I can be dead wrong on this, but trying to be prudent and taking some profits.)

Zillow stock down nearly 10% on this news. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/31/realestate/nar-antitrust-lawsuit.html

30 Oct 23:02 [NVDA] *Said to have $5.0B in China orders in limbo after the latest US chip curbs; Reportedly halted plans for rush deliveries of China orders - US financial press - Source TradeTheNews.com

Nice timing. TLT catching a bid on: (US) Treasury quarterly financing estimates: To borrow $776B in Oct-Dec quarter v $845Be - Source TradeTheNews.com (less borrowing Q4 vs expected)

I did consider that I may have chosen my words poorly there. “Luckily” or perhaps “unfortunately” filled those shares. We are down a heck of a lot on this pull in. Even if this isn’t the overall bottom, we are due for a bounce. Nothing ever moves in straight lines and we’ve baked a hell of a lot...