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14:00 *(US) FOMC RAISES TARGET RANGE BY 75BPS TO 3.75-4.00%; AS EXPECTED; NEED ONGOING HIKES UNTIL RATES ARE SUFFICIENTLY RESTRICTIVE; PREPARED TO ADJUST POLICY AS APPROPRIATE; WILL TAKE CUMULATIVE TIGHTENING AND POLICY LAGS INTO ACCOUNT - IOER raised by 75bps to 3.90% - Decision was unanimous...

The move is due to comments about: "WILL TAKE CUMULATIVE TIGHTENING AND POLICY LAGS INTO ACCOUNT" Taking lags into account is likely being digested as "pause" due

Big reminder. Fed rates today at 2pm. Press conference at 2:30pm with Powell. Markets all but guaranteed a 75bp move, which shouldn't come as a shock at 2pm. All eyes and ears will be on Powell's statement and Q&A at 2:30pm for clues on the December hike. *My take: Any clues about "only 50bp"...

Yes.

I think the point Mist is making is those leveraged ETFs like TQQQ and SQQQ inherently have decay built into them. When we are in a market with a few days / weeks momentum, they can be quite profitable. But longer and you’re eating price decay. You can see this yourself when comparing, say, a...

JOLTs data just came in higher vs expected. This pulled us down quite a bit, as its a key metric the Fed is tracking. (More hiring vs expected means companies still actively hiring which drives inflation. aka: Fed can't really back off just yet) 10:00 *(US) SEPT JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 10.717M V...

October PMI print showing expansion vs contraction. 09:45 *(US) OCT FINAL S&P/MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.4 V 49.9E (avoids contraction but lowest since June 2020)

It's all about the Fed. Here is the JPM playbook for the week: 50 basis point hike, with a dovish press conference: “It is difficult to conceive of a scenario where this outcome occurs given inflation levels and a tight labor market,” the team wrote. “Should this outcome occur, the immediate...

Huge gap down on yields. (Great for market strength) Thanks Cramer!

Well gentlemen, this is a buy signal if I've ever seen one!

The macro shitshow is never going to end at this point: China Foreign Min Wang Yi: Any attempt to block China and Russia 'moving forward' will never succeed; China is willing to deepen relationship with Russia on all levels

$TLT does look attractive down here.

I know you're joking @Sanrith Descartes However, for anyone else wondering wtf we are moving up: Yields falling. That is why we are seeing a bid in markets.

Yields falling off quite a bit today. USD also losing some strength. Gives this rally some legs.

Damn good read: https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2022-the-crypto-story/?srnd=premium&sref=9HT8lz40

Yields pulling down from highs, VIX back below 30. Check your bias. This article being cited for the catalyst for the move up today: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-set-to-raise-rates-by-0-75-point-and-debate-size-of-future-hikes-11666356757?page=1 10:30 (US) Market Trading Hours Summary...

More of a hyper simplified explanation.

My trade style. I am only entering with multiple support zones below. eg: buying on a big pivot support, but there is also a 100DMA right below. I never go full size on any trade. So I may put 1/3 on the first spot, leaving 2/3 for the support below it. Initial reaction to the pivot and first...

Still relatively flat on the year in long term accounts. -0.3% in one account and -0.16% in another. (Active swing trading through this bear market) A separate (small) Roth IRA I landed some nice options plays this year and up nearly 20% in it. Green on daytrade account, albeit significantly...

TSLA reporting after hours.

Jump back to new highs in rates and USD today. Not ideal for markets.

AAPL puking the market there. 14:38 [AAPL] Reportedly cuts iPhone 14 Plus production - TheInformation - Less than 2 weeks after the debut of the iPhone 14 Plus, supply chain sources say Apple is cutting production, telling at least one manufacturer in China to halt production of components...

On the macro front. Rates holding (overall) flat over 4 trading days and slightly below the peak. We would like these to roll over (if only temporary) to see continued market strength. Crude has broken below a 3 day triple bottom today and back below all significant moving averages. (Good for...

91% adv vs decliners at the open on NYSE.

Canadians not pay any attention to 2008 or what?? https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/marketplace-mortgage-fraud-1.6614132

Doesn't have to be an all or nothing either. Take something off the table and pay yourself, leave some to give a chance to run.

Trade the action that is in front of you and don't try and fight the trend (intraday or otherwise) .

Yields given up 3/4 of their move today. Leaves some room for continued bounce in the markets. VIX still down >4% At some point, people are going to start looking past the bad news and want to participate and get positioned. Today's fomo move proved that in spades.

This sets up a bounce. Got everyone short on CPI, trade moves against them, covers start happening, then all indicies go green, people fomo back into longs thinking they "missed the bottom". VIX down 4.5% and yields retreating (very slightly). All on the back of a very technically oversold...

SPY green on the day.

This is my take on my TQQQ $15 (21OCT exp) that Sanrith called out. I am not at all opposed to owning TQQQ at that price (minus premium collected). I have collected premium twice on this trade. Took 60% profits off the table on the last bounce. Re-entered recently back near original trade entry.

Pay attention. Even with this down move, VIX is still negative on the day. (-1.5% as of writing)

Not to mention simple upgrade cycles. So much covid bucks handed out, work from home, and a few other factors of the PC demand of the last 2 years. So take all of those who have upgraded recently. How many are actually clamoring to go right back out and buy ground-up PC builds again? The usual...

Hot PPI again 08:30 *(US) SEPT PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 0.4% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 8.5% V 8.4%E

Economic slowdown may be one reason, making sub-par and expensive processors is the more relevant reason. AMD have really been showing Intel up for a while now. Like the good old 2000s era, Intel finally has some competition and are caught sandbagging innovation and AMD are reaping the rewards...

We're still in a bad news is good news / good news is bad news market. Headline hit: 11:01 (US) NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: Household spending decline in Sept is largest in series history While poor for earnings / profits, the argument can be made that the Fed's tightening is...

UBER LYFT etc down on: 08:47(US) Dept of Labor releases proposal to force companies to reclassify independent contractors as employees

Market bouncing with volume on: 13:46 (RU) Russia Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: Russia is open for diplomacy - Source TradeTheNews.com Why anyone trusts Russia at this point is beyond me.

That is the big question that every analyst and talking head is pouring over right now. "Expected" earnings... Q4 foward guides are going to make or break those expectations. Semis are a bloodbath because AMD cut theirs. You had FDX warning weeks ago as the canary in the coal mine. What is...