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Mohammed El-Erian (one's opinion I highly respect) pointing out that this inflation cycle just entered dangerous territory. Phase 1 being the energy spike. Phase 2 when inflation spread to more core components beyond energy. Now phase 3 where rising wages are happening. The risk now with rising...

The Fed pivot idea has been picked away by actual Fed member statements this week. Some saying "havent even yet begun to see prices cooling" .. "unsure why market feels Fed will reduce pace of hikes" etc. This speculative pivot move up this week+ has not been backed by a single word of any Fed...

I mean, here is a perfect example Yes it is early premarket, but bid of $259 and ask of $1095.

It was a Chinese pump and dump with almost 0 volume. There were at times spreads that were 100s of dollars. It would trade a couple hundred shares and volatility halt. While fun to watch, it was an untradeable mess.

COIN ripping short faces off. Blackrock deal with them adds a whole lot of legitimacy.

Because your lots are priced individually (tax / accounting reasons). First lot 100 shares at $100 Second lot 100 shares at $50 Currently own 200 shares with an averaged cost basis of $75. You then go an sell that first lot. Your profit / loss for the sale of those 100 shares are based at...

(PYPL) Also a $2B investment from Elliot

Paypal announcing $15B share repurchase. Yowza

Landing about now. https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/SPAR19

Its all good, the CEO says the bottom is in! Go yolo! 11:12 [INTC] CEO: Very confident this is the bottom and we are rebuilding from here - CNBC - Source TradeTheNews.com

13:05 [BABA] Added to SEC list of firms that could face delisting under the 'Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act' - Source TradeTheNews.com Ouch.

Markets pulling back off the 100D MAs. Pretty big move in a short timeframe.

ROKU getting destroyed. Cathie on the wrong side of a trade yet again.

Not just the double miss. Bad guide too. 16:01 [INTC] Reports Q2 $0.29 v $0.69e, Rev $15.3B v $17.9Be; Cuts outlook sharply - Guides Q3 $0.35 v $0.90e, Adj Rev $15-16B v $18.9Be - Cuts FY22 $2.30 v $3.46e 16:06 [INTC] Notes deteriorating macro, inventory and supply disruptions, competitive...

15:30 Market Internals update at 15:30ET - NYSE volume 521M shares, 10% below its three-month average (Aka: negligible difference)

And lowered guide.

Ford big double beat

For those who care to watch: https://www.federalreserve.gov/live-broadcast.htm

Some commentary in the release that can be taken both dovish / hawkish about adjusting policy as necessary. (Ongoing increases as appropriate) The Fed Q&A coming at 2:30pm will see how he responds to these statements.

14:00 *(US) FOMC RAISES TARGET RANGE BY 75BPS TO 2.25-2.50% (AS SPECULATED); RECENT INDICATORS OF SPENDING AND PRODUCTION HAVE SOFTENED, THOUGH JOB GAINS ARE ROBUST - IOER raised by 75bps to 2.40% - Vote was unanimous - Inflation remains elevated, reflecting imbalances; Reiterates 'highly...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-27/us-economy-seen-narrowly-averting-so-called-technical-recession?srnd=premium&sref=9HT8lz40

The only thing I would caution is that there has been some shift where things are being bought on bad news. It is expected at this point. I honestly only see a 75bp move out of the Fed, but what we are looking for is the language. If they say they are seeing results from their actions, it will...

Can't trust a guy who's not in dark mode.

MSFT already down over 3% on the day. GOOG down 2.5% today.

Google and Microsoft reporting earnings after hours. Then Fed tomorrow at 2pm. Things are about to get spicy.

Some real data vs feels data. (June: New Homes) 10:00 *(US) JUN NEW HOME SALES: 590K V 659KE - Median price: $402.4K v $449K prior - Months supply: 9.3 v 7.7 prior - Homes for sale at end of period: 457K v 444K prior - New Home sales by region y/y: Northeast -5.3%, Midwest +42.3%, South...

Trimming some of my SPY 377 buys here at 396. >6% gain Puts me solidly green on the year in long term acct.

Oh I get it, no doubt. It is likely being take as a harbinger of the slowdown economically. If one of the best positioned companies out there is making cuts on staff, doesn't bode well for the pleb companies. Markets are taking this as it should.

Both SPY and QQQ index mirror that AAPL drop.

Let’s at least keep it in theme of the forum. Looks a bit like The Commonlands.

Because they literally have Fed members saying stuff like this today: 08:41 (US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter, hawk): 75bps was a 'big move in policy'; Fed wants policy transition to be orderly - Moving too dramatically could undermine positive aspects of the economy and add to uncertainty 09:06...

“Just like owning land.” https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/12/they-couldnt-even-scream-any-more-they-were-just-sobbing-the-amateur-investors-ruined-by-the-crypto-crash

This is providing some relief. 10:30 *(US) DOE CRUDE: +3.3M V -1ME; GASOLINE: +5.8M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: +2.7M V +1ME - Utilization: 94.9% v 94.8%e - Distillate demand -1.0M bpd at 3.4M bpd - Gasoline demand -1.4M bpd at 8.1M bpd

Canada just raised 100bp. Was expected 75bp. Imagine our Fed needs to follow suit (at a minimum).

SPY currently at 377-378.. Considering the low yesterday was 380ish, we really aren't that far down all things considered.

Your move Janet Powell

End of the promised child. Ackman’s Record SPAC to Return Funds After Deal Hunt Fizzled Ackman’s Record SPAC to Return Funds After Deal Hunt Fizzled Funny thing with that block trade, someone made 20c a share on 1.35m shares. Currently trading flat nav of $20.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-08/more-americans-are-self-employed-than-any-time-since-2008-crisis?sref=9HT8lz40 Many Americans were pushed into trying self-employment when millions of jobs vanished almost overnight in the early weeks of the pandemic. Others have taken the...

10:00 (US) Fed’s Brainard (vice chair): Volatility has exposed serious crytpo vulnerabilities; Crypto activities need regulation according to principles of 'like risk, like regulatory outcome' - We cannot wait until crypto ecosystem becomes so large and interconnected that it could pose...

Looking at that chart, my intuition says we've been on on downward streak since early 2000s. The chart is basically showing the boomer generation retiring and Covid basically fast forwarding a lot of retirement plans. Especially if you consider where their investment portfolios went over the...