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"under control" .. the new "transitory"

- FOLLOW UP: Mester: The process will not be smooth, road ahead will be bumpy; Unemployment may have to rise as part of rate raising process - press interview - We may get another quarter of negative growth (implying a recession) - Want to see evidence that inflation is slowing - Do not expect...

Mester in a Bloomberg interview today also said: "Fed hasnt ruled out 75bp hikes forever"

Aaaaaand... we're red on the day on all indexes. SPY approaching yesterday's low. I can smell the capitulation phase brewing.

CPI is definitely 8:30am tomorrow.

On top of that: 09:38 (US) Fed's Mester (FOMC voter, hawk): We need to move rates up at a pace to get inflation moving - Comfortable moving 50 basis points at next couple meetings but will remain data dependent - Need to see compelling evidence that inflation is moving lower, have NOT seen that...

Further NCLH: - Affirms FY22 Capex $1.6B, FY23 Capex $2.5B, FY24 Capex $1.4B (prior: FY22 Capex $1.6B, FY23 Capex $2.5B, FY24 Capex $1.4B) - Adj EBITDA -$476.2M v -$373.4M y/y - Cash burn $375M v $390Me - Booking trends: The quarter began with net bookings, particularly for close-in voyages...

Double miss NCLH. 07:00 [NCLH] Reports Q1 -$2.35 v -$1.73e, Rev $521.9M v $655Me

Every pop has been sold recently. Let’s see how it goes. That said, we are pretty extended down here and due for an attempted bounce to at least the 20D. No guarantees anything sticks, but just some bigger picture awareness.

@Shonuff .. you alive out there bud? NCLH slaughter

You may be onto something there...

I have been talking about this for months. Forget the all or nothing mentality and look to scale into positions in this weak market. You'd have to be insanely lucky to bottom tick the market, so just find the strongest support levels and divide your buy-ins ONLY at those levels. FWIW, Currently...

Day Trader Army Loses All the Money It Made in Meme-Stock Era Day Trader Army Loses All the Money It Made in Meme-Stock Era

-0.9% YTD here

We have attempted a bounce here at the 411.21 pivot (May 2nd low). Bullish argument if this holds is we have a higher low on the daily. I've got no real outlook on near-term market direction though.

Nasdaq might want to try a breaker halt today at this rate.

AMD finally getting the attention the earnings deserved. +9% Probably everyone wanting the Fed news out of the way.

2B buy side MOC

14:40 (US) Fed Chair Powell: 75bps rate hike is not something we are actively considering; Expectations are that we'll start to see inflation flattening; Some evidence core PCE is peaking - post rate decision Q&A - We will not hesitate to go higher on rates if we have to; We could go higher...

I will post a bullet point summary after the Q&A ends.

Powell: "75bp hikes are not being actively considered". Then market pushed a bit.

Basically the Hike and Balance runoff was inline with expectations. No surprises, hence relatively flat action. The Q&A could produce some tradeable action. Nothing here for me so far.

14:00 *(US) FOMC RAISES TARGET RANGE BY 50 BPS TO 0.75-1.00% (AS EXPECTED); EXPECTS 'ONGOING' INCREASES IN RATES WILL BE APPROPRIATE - IOER raised to 0.90% v 0.90%e - Vote was unanimous - Balance sheet runoff to begin June 1st at $47.5B/mo; To phase in over three months (as expected); To rise to...

Friendly reminder. FOMC notes at 2pm (rate hike / balance sheet). Then the Q&A at 2:30pm https://www.federalreserve.gov/live-broadcast.htm

Market running a bit on the back of a positive GDP revision. Anything positive is good after the last GDP miss. 11:51 (US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q2 GDP forecast to 2.2% from 1.6%

This is the real takeaway from that article:

11:34 (US) Treasury Sec Yellen: Feel quite good about strength of US economy - Q1 negative GDP print was a negative sign; Final sales grew 3% last quarter I feel is a better read on strength of economy - America is outperforming other countries - Inflation is too high and needs to be brought...

Fun bear porn reading. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-04/78-year-old-investor-preps-for-biggest-bear-market-of-my-life?sref=9HT8lz40

I am quite surprised as well, considering that report. Might look to take a position if we have some panic selling after FOMC.

I honestly think the 50bp is irrelevant at this point. The big uncertainty is the pace of balance sheet reductions. The Q&A will likely be the most volatile part of this. Also, keep in mind: if you are trying to make trades post-FOMC announcements, the initial move has often reversed in the...

@Sanrith Descartes Especially considering a great Q2 / FY22 guide. 16:10 [AMD] Reports Q1 $1.13 v $0.91e, Rev $5.89B v $5.00Be; Raises FY22 outlook citing higher AMD organic growth and the addition of Xilinx business - Guides Q2 Rev $6.5B +/- $200M +69% y/y v $5.13Be, non-GAAP gross margin...

You mean this dip?

Because the truth is, you never know where the bottom is. We could have put it in yesterday and never see this price again.. or, we could add 5% lower and drop another 10% further after that. I stated yesterday to someone asking about their annual IRA contribution that the SPY 410 level was...

10 year yield ticking over 3%

I think we are in a really good spot here. We are tryting to hold the year's low of ~410 SPY. That is a pretty good entry. Keep in mind, we do have FOMC rate hike Weds. There could be volatility over the next few days. If I were in your shoes (long time horizon). I would probably fill half...

10:04 (US) FINRA proposes limiting access to leveraged and inverse ETFs FINRA's Regulatory Notice 22-08 includes a solicitation of comments on investors' ability to trade "complex products"—including leveraged and inverse funds ("L&I Funds"). In its notice, FINRA articulates the "concern" that...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-02/five-minute-flash-crash-in-nordic-equity-markets-jolts-europe?srnd=premium-europe&sref=9HT8lz40

SPY just punched through the year's lows here premarket. Long way till the open, but I would not be surprised we see more panic. Also note: FOMC Tues-Weds.

VIX 34