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SPY testing the 100D again. At the same time newswires put out a WH comment about Ukraine situation being "an extremely dangerous crisis. Russia could launch an attack at any point". This is tough trading here!

So, this is where I really think we test the market. We backtested the Jan10th SPY low, which was essentially right on top of the 100D support. We have bounced markedly here, but the question is how much? The fact we have tested these lows so quickly (8 days) is bearish in itself. The question...

SPY into the pivot low of 10Jan. 100D is imminent.

May last year.

My post was back in Sept last year (trading $100'ish). Early bearish views and shorts in Dec/Jan ($160s). *sigh*

In aquisitions, you ususally just see the price relatively flat around the buyout price. However, ATVI giving up a lot from the highs. $92 in premarket down to $83 currently ($95 buyout price)

RBLX moving in a sympathy move.

Confirmed @$95 per share

I think you have the wrong idea here. Yield is inversely correlated to bond prices. Lower demand (less buying) sends bond prices lower, and simultaneously drives the yields up.

We've reclaimed the trend on the SPY. Still a while till open. Today should be fun.

We're a long way off to the open, but pre looks really ugly. From what I discussed a while back, we are below the macro ascending support trend line on both the SPY and QQQ this morning. We could get bought up a bit and open back above, but we can equally expect SPY to go test the 100D...

$2B MOC to the buy side.

Equally, being Fri going into a 3 day weekend and the last 2 days of weakness, I expected risk-off sentiment. SPY daily candle actually looks fairly healthy here, nearly testing the macro ascending trend again for the bounce. Next week could be continuation, unless some Ukraine nonsense kicks off.

Sometimes, you just gotta roll the dice. On a serious note. LABU is putting in the biggest volume on the daily, seemingly ever. On a big green dildo candle. This could be my best timed trade ever.

That Sept dip was my $151 initial entry.

I was greedy. No fills.

MSFT had held really strong when the indexes were taking the afternoon dump. Shoulda loaded more.

SPY daily candles looking god damn ugly the last 2 days. However, we are coming into the macro ascending support trend line with the 100D not much further below that. Looking for some deals, but leaving plenty of buying power at the ready in case we get really crazy and want to visit the 200D...

@Blazin Ever play LABU? Looking at some $25C Jan'23 LEAPS. Tiny starter size. Historically whenever this has been so far extended below the 20D, there's been quite a rebound.

Surprised to see DIS being hit on a downgrade and lowered PT by Guggenheim. (Markets arent helping)

MTTR is getting interesting here in the low 13s. Lockup expiry is simply on the mind though.

It is being held up by its 100D (so far). Not a name I own anymore though.

With market weakness, keep an eye on ~291.5 level. Theres a pivot right there with the 200D just below 291.22 This would be a big add if we get there.

SPY and QQQ this morning:

Not quite investing, but holy shit (click for more clips):

WYNN with some news finally (+11% premarket): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-14/macau-plans-maximum-six-casino-licenses-of-up-to-13-years?sref=9HT8lz40

JPM earnings werent that great. I think the 2022 increased rates is a good thesis on the stock. Premarket right now is in an interesting spot. The 20D, 50D, and 100D are all on top of one another here around $163. Worth a punt taking a new position here.

This was my buy level on the 10th. The daily candle today looks brutal though.

Big downs like this and open tomorrow with a gap down. Usually provide the best buying opportunities. If we get some panic selling at the open, we can find a bottom and probably come out quite profitable tomorrow. These are my go-to plays for cash generation.

SPY feeling awful heavy here. 5th test of 50D on the 5min chart and we have a while before market close.

My take though is the SPY 50D stopped the selling, nothing to do with the QQQs. I honestly expected SPY to slow its sell at the QQQ 100D, but it just drove right through it without pause. QQQ came back up and tested beneath and rejected. But the two charts are nearly identical in shape.

QQQ blew right through 100D SMA without stopping. SPY 50D SMA has been our support (so far).

I am not arguing with you on this point. There was fantastic opportunity. But we are talking about capital preservation from Nov 6th at the onset. Quite literally before anything Omicron had truly been digested in the US. Your take was that pandemic was over and the Pfizer will was here to save...

From 12/10 to 12/17 there was a -11.5% drop in NCLH top to bottom of those dates range.

Your exact words are what I warned you of though. "world freaked out" .. sentiment is everything in trading. You were 100% against the market when they got spooked out of travel. The reality of the situation is meaningless when the news cycle is shoving case numbers down viewers throats every...

The point was, I didn't need to eat a massive drawdown on the start of the mess from early November. I cut my winners, shorted a little bit, and finally re-bought once we started putting in lows and news got better. My NCLH calls have given me 18% realized gains YTD in my IRA while only...

@Shonuff The first part of being a better trader is critically looking back at your trades. Revise your trade if the thesis changes. No matter what travel play you were in, you took a massive drawdown. I sent you a message on November 6th about this. Attached are two charts where I basically...

My advice on this stuff (if youre trading, not investing) is to set yourself a profit target, but scale profits along the way. If you hold the whole balance, you may never see the full move only for it to reverse on you. Nothing wrong with taking some off the table while you wait for the...