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SI (Silvergate) implosion. 16:30 [SI] Announces intent to wind down operations and voluntarily liquidate Silvergate Bank In light of recent industry and regulatory developments, Silvergate believes that an orderly wind down of Bank operations and a voluntary liquidation of the Bank is the...

More importantly: - Guides Q1 -$0.12 to -$0.11 v -$0.10e, Rev $21.7-23.7M v $25.0Me - Guides initial FY23 -$0.36 to -$0.33 v -$0.44e, Rev $104-109M v $114Me Lower guides get crushed in this market.

More El-Erian shitting on JPow. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-07/federal-reserve-s-jerome-powell-unleashes-unsettling-market-volatility?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=230307&utm_campaign=author_1771096&sref=9HT8lz40

Still an "up" number. It's like saying "oh, you only added $14.8k on the credit card this month? I was expecting you to spend $25k!" Savings down and credit up back to back to back months. Not a great snapshot of finances. Perhaps the homeowners are just in denial, as they are still sitting on...

Really dont want to derail into politics, but it is relevant. Both parties are fucking retarded, but I was frothing at the stupidity on display at the Powell testimony today when multiple Repubs took jabs at Powell and policy and completely and entirely blaming the Dems. I am sat here thinking...

Powell needs to be honored with the title of patron saint of patience. Fuck me, the stupidity of the questions in these hearings. 90% of it is just the senators grandstanding for sound bites of their own agendas and have fuck all to do with the Fed issues at hand. Then you have the ones that...

Opening Fed hearing notes: 10:00 *(US) FED CHAIR POWELL: WE WILL STAY THE COURSE UNTIL THE JOB IS DONE; ULTIMATE PEAK LIKELY TO BE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED; PREPARED TO INCREASE PACE OF RATE HIKES IF NEEDED; LATEST ECONOMIC DATA HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN EXPECTED - SEMI-ANNUAL TESTIMONY IN SENATE -...

Tesla started fairly spartan in their factories as well. You can't compare 12+ years of Elon at the helm worth of progress and expertise to a new startup carmaker. The hurdles in scaling up production are enormous. Hell, Elon has said as much repeatedly. The idea behind Rivian is to create a...

@Sanrith Descartes @Blazin Thursday was the turn. SPY premarket dipped below the 200D. Check the 5min chart, we opened below and by 10:20am had already reclaimed, and more importantly, back tested back down below the 200D on higher volume, put in a lower high and started running without really...

Sold most around 30+%. Letting a small portion run if we want to get further extended on the indexes.

$USO had a major reversal move on that news, then denial.

09:03 [V] Reports Feb payment volume +11% y/y, global processed transactions +12% y/y On March 3, 2023, Visa announced volume and transaction data for January and February 2023

Crude oil on a big dip. 08:57 (AE) Reportedly Saudi Arabia and UAE clashed over oil and Yeman as tensions increase - press - UAE said to be internally debating whether to leave OPEC

Very interesting read that possibly explains the muted VIX action of the last year. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-03/clueless-wall-street-is-racing-to-size-up-zero-day-options-boom?sref=9HT8lz40 Less debatable is that the proliferation of 0DTE options is complicating matters...

Ok, this is just perfect! Fed Speech Scrapped After Participant Shows Porn in Zoom Room Fed Speech Scrapped After Participant Shows Porn in Zoom Room

Good observation. US10Y still at highs and hasn't reacted to the equities bounce. Who's gonna flinch first?

Dem GOOGL calls:

Well damn Bostic, you made my week.

13:35 (US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter): Fed could be in position to pause by mid-to-late summer - Favors rating rates 25bps in March but is watching data - Fed may have to do more given high inflation, strong jobs market; Will not decide until meeting on proper policy path - Notes that higher...

Added some 400shrs of SPY today 392.50 With a healthy pullback of the last weeks, the 100D, 200D, and market high descending macro trend line all basically within a few points of each other. It is worth it with some support levels so close in range. Also bought some May $100 GOOGL calls.

I've long respected this man's opinion on all matters of the Fed. Worth a read and a follow. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-02/federal-reserve-falls-behind-the-inflation-curve-again-what-now?srnd=premium&sref=9HT8lz40

*(US) Q4 FINAL NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: 1.7% V 2.5%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: 3.2% V 1.6%E Expensive labor and low productivity = No bueno!

Can we simply not shit up the investing thread? @Lightning Lord Rule

SI Short Float / Ratio 76.28% So tempting to do the degenerate WSB play of buying some lotto calls off intraday lows, should they miraculously present their delayed 10K to show they are somehow still solvent. The squeeze could be magical. *NOT AT ALL advice!*

$SI "oopsie" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-02/silvergate-s-worsening-crypto-losses-feed-watchdogs-worst-fears?srnd=premium&sref=9HT8lz40 For months, US authorities have been racing to sever ties between banks and risky crypto ventures, worried the financial system could...

I had my JPM average down around $115, but didn't hold nearly as long as I should have. Got about 15 points out of it. In similar news, GS investors aren't too pleased after their "investor day" yesterday.

Dont know if I should tendie or paper hand you

Intraday Summary: Markets have continued to price in more policy tightening, while deepening yield curve inversions suggest heightened risk of a policy mistake. Strong China PMI data overnight was followed by hotter than expected Germany CPI figures. This morning’s US ISM manufacturing data...

10Y Treasuries tipping just over 4% again here.

Also this morning, German CPI print hotter v expected m/m and y/y. *(DE) GERMANY FEB PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.8% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 8.7% V 8.5%E

NCLH down 12% on earnings. Rip Shonuff

UPST absolutely got annihilited last year. Where's your average? We are talking a huge range of $400/share at end of 2021 highs to $18 today. Depending where your average is it, it could be insurmountable losses. That 95% loss from high to current price is going to take a >2000% gain to recoup...

The META AI news was last week. Also in the release, they said they have no plans for adding it to any user products and is for research use only. Share price spiked on initial news and once it was digested, sold back off.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/fed-may-need-to-hike-to-6-5-to-cool-prices-new-study-says?cmpid=BBD022423_CUS&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=230224&utm_campaign=closeamericas&sref=9HT8lz40

PCE data hot, plus previous revisions higher. SPY and QQQ 200D MAs in sight for today. Likely going to be a big fight if we get there, otherwise I expect some chop if we float in no mans land above it. Bets on a 50bp Fed move increased.

Heck of a bounce from that support I mentioned. Scalped some nice SPXL off it.

SPY into the macro ascending support from the October lows, as well as the 50D. Failing that, you have the 200D below. Pretty bearish if we give all those supports up. So far it has reacted to the TL and 50D and reclaimed. Could just roll back over today though. Just my observations.

16:50 [NVDA] Reports Q4 $0.88 v $0.81e, Rev $6.05B v $6.01Be; Highlights new AI services offering - Guides Q1 Rev $6.50B +/- 2% v $6.47Be (implies $6.37-6.63B) -Datacenter +11% y/y -Gaming Rev -46% y/y

14:00 *(US) FEB FOMC MINUTES: ALL PARTICIPANTS AGREED MORE RATE HIKES NEEDED TO ACHIEVE JOB AND INFLATION OBJECTIVES; A FEW CALLED FOR A 50 BPS HIKE - A quarter point rise would allow officials to balance risks as they assess future rate path - Tight labor market, China reopening, war in Ukraine...