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Likely interest rate increases put the loan affordability out of reach.

Up 10% on those puts already. :cool: **edit** ~20% **edit** 30% **edit** 40%

Also took some QQQ 26AUG 328P position as SPY tapped the 200D.

Just lightened my positions by a fair bit. We are so very well extended in a very short period of time. Expecting a pullback of some sort in the coming days/weeks. Look at your charts and keep an eye how far away the SPY / QQQ gets extended (either direction) from the 20D EMA. Whenever we get...

SPY just tested the 200D SMA.

08:16 Redfin report: ~63K US home-purchase agreements fell through in July (16.1% of homes that went under contract that month, highest rate in more than two years) - Represents the highest percentage on record with the exception of March and April 2020, when the onset of the coronavirus...

10 Aug 16:10 [MTTR] Reports Q2 -$0.12 v -$0.14e, Rev $28.5M v $29.4Me - Guides Q3 -$0.13 to -$0.15 v -$0.13e, Rev $35-37M v $33Me - Raises FY22 -$0.46 to -$0.50 v -$0.49e, Rev $132-138M v $126Me (prior: -$0.47 to -$0.52, Rev $125-135M)

The old forum darling MTTR up 22% overnight. (Still only $6.xx)

Just noticed NCLH (Norwegian Cruise Lines) posted worse than expected Q2 and issued Q3 guide below estimates. Occupancy in the 80% range. So much for all of that "pent-up demand" and "unprecedented bookings" that the CEO was talking about for the last year. Stock is down more than 10%. **Our...

Sentiment changed a bit recently where any negative news is just looked past with the hopes that peak inflation is behind us and the Fed becomes more accommodative. The CPI print will mean a lot on that sentiment tomorrow, however there are still quite a few external factors to get beyond...

My honest guess is chop day while waiting for CPI print tomorrow.

I don’t care what political affiliation any president is, but the accusation of taking classified documents from the WH should have the same result. Who else is going to knock on the door and search? Hillary server was just as ridiculous and should have had further repercussions as well. ps...

Keep an eye on XBI (oversold biotech ETF). Or LABU if youre feeling frisky (3x levered). XBI has shown strength on recent market pullbacks. Markets will eventually remember biotech stocks aren't just about Covid. Definitely seeing some strength and inflows back into the sector.

Mohammed El-Erian (one's opinion I highly respect) pointing out that this inflation cycle just entered dangerous territory. Phase 1 being the energy spike. Phase 2 when inflation spread to more core components beyond energy. Now phase 3 where rising wages are happening. The risk now with rising...

The Fed pivot idea has been picked away by actual Fed member statements this week. Some saying "havent even yet begun to see prices cooling" .. "unsure why market feels Fed will reduce pace of hikes" etc. This speculative pivot move up this week+ has not been backed by a single word of any Fed...

I mean, here is a perfect example Yes it is early premarket, but bid of $259 and ask of $1095.

It was a Chinese pump and dump with almost 0 volume. There were at times spreads that were 100s of dollars. It would trade a couple hundred shares and volatility halt. While fun to watch, it was an untradeable mess.

COIN ripping short faces off. Blackrock deal with them adds a whole lot of legitimacy.

Because your lots are priced individually (tax / accounting reasons). First lot 100 shares at $100 Second lot 100 shares at $50 Currently own 200 shares with an averaged cost basis of $75. You then go an sell that first lot. Your profit / loss for the sale of those 100 shares are based at...

(PYPL) Also a $2B investment from Elliot

Paypal announcing $15B share repurchase. Yowza

Landing about now. https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/SPAR19

Its all good, the CEO says the bottom is in! Go yolo! 11:12 [INTC] CEO: Very confident this is the bottom and we are rebuilding from here - CNBC - Source TradeTheNews.com

13:05 [BABA] Added to SEC list of firms that could face delisting under the 'Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act' - Source TradeTheNews.com Ouch.

Markets pulling back off the 100D MAs. Pretty big move in a short timeframe.

ROKU getting destroyed. Cathie on the wrong side of a trade yet again.

Not just the double miss. Bad guide too. 16:01 [INTC] Reports Q2 $0.29 v $0.69e, Rev $15.3B v $17.9Be; Cuts outlook sharply - Guides Q3 $0.35 v $0.90e, Adj Rev $15-16B v $18.9Be - Cuts FY22 $2.30 v $3.46e 16:06 [INTC] Notes deteriorating macro, inventory and supply disruptions, competitive...

15:30 Market Internals update at 15:30ET - NYSE volume 521M shares, 10% below its three-month average (Aka: negligible difference)

And lowered guide.

Ford big double beat

For those who care to watch: https://www.federalreserve.gov/live-broadcast.htm

Some commentary in the release that can be taken both dovish / hawkish about adjusting policy as necessary. (Ongoing increases as appropriate) The Fed Q&A coming at 2:30pm will see how he responds to these statements.

14:00 *(US) FOMC RAISES TARGET RANGE BY 75BPS TO 2.25-2.50% (AS SPECULATED); RECENT INDICATORS OF SPENDING AND PRODUCTION HAVE SOFTENED, THOUGH JOB GAINS ARE ROBUST - IOER raised by 75bps to 2.40% - Vote was unanimous - Inflation remains elevated, reflecting imbalances; Reiterates 'highly...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-27/us-economy-seen-narrowly-averting-so-called-technical-recession?srnd=premium&sref=9HT8lz40

The only thing I would caution is that there has been some shift where things are being bought on bad news. It is expected at this point. I honestly only see a 75bp move out of the Fed, but what we are looking for is the language. If they say they are seeing results from their actions, it will...

Can't trust a guy who's not in dark mode.

MSFT already down over 3% on the day. GOOG down 2.5% today.

Google and Microsoft reporting earnings after hours. Then Fed tomorrow at 2pm. Things are about to get spicy.

Some real data vs feels data. (June: New Homes) 10:00 *(US) JUN NEW HOME SALES: 590K V 659KE - Median price: $402.4K v $449K prior - Months supply: 9.3 v 7.7 prior - Homes for sale at end of period: 457K v 444K prior - New Home sales by region y/y: Northeast -5.3%, Midwest +42.3%, South...

Trimming some of my SPY 377 buys here at 396. >6% gain Puts me solidly green on the year in long term acct.