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While I'm sure some people have made huge money with leverage, there has been a lot more people that have lost a LOT of money. Leverage can make you a lot of money, but volatility can quickly be very, very bad for it. The repo actions drying up were in part a response to this. Banks were seeing...

Most of us are on FOH 5.0.

It was impossible to see coming.

Isolationist policies will probably be a LOT more politically viable in the coming few decades. And X is definitely a company that will benefit from a swing like that. Mexico will likely also hugely benefit from anything like that, and could definitely see this strengthening our trade ties with...

I said it at the start of this crash. Fed was going the wrong way. They needed to kill off some companies intentionally and early and do a controlled burn of bad financials by RAISING standards, not removing them with the money train. Their repo operations are probably the main reason I predict...

Selling at this point carries more risk than earlier times. That said, I think it's likely we'll go to at least 15k, and possible we go as low as 12k. My own plan is to buy back in at ~15k or 4 weeks if we aren't trending down enough.

Next two weeks are probably going to be spicy as fuck. Shutting down the economy is just not sustainable long term, yet we are going to do it long term. Quarantines extened to late may, june? The fact that doing that probably won't stop the spread of this either, but slow it down a little. This...

It's possible, but I agree that it doesn't seem very likely atm.

Knowing how deep the rabbit hole goes is gonna come down to two factors: 1. Knowing how retarded the fed can be. Every day I feel like we've hit the peak, but the fed just keeps finding more ways to one up itself. I agree with almost nothing that they've done. 2. Knowing how bad the quarantines...

Yea, this was the analysis that made me post about illiquid reits being a likely strong contagion in the market. The big thing that that post fails to mention is that a lot of REITs and some other mortgages have already theoretically imploded to the point that they should have their assets...

I'm really tempted to go there next week.

Not a fan of short term guesses, but looking at the stats in the market and with this virus, I think some optimism will cling on. Numbers came in a little light today, especially in italy. Strangely, that happened last sunday as well I believe? Looking at everything, I think we're going to be...

lol, here comes the super genius. 2000 years of mathematical theorization. Nah fuck that, some guy made a video.

Why do dead people give pressure on the living in his simulations? It's cute, but not well thought out.

Good god, it's like seeing life through the eyes of wizardhawk. It felt almost like I was watching Game of Thrones: Meth.

Is it time for a corona dedicated forum yet?

Looks like a lot of people jumped ship before the weekend. We're in for a race between hope and realizing what's coming. The most terrifying trigger in the market right now is the buildup of securities that have lost value and the banks are deferring margin calls on. That can't be sustained...

Crude oil if you can store it is probably the best investment opportunity out there right now. It'll take a while, but those prices will go up.

Free money is the reaper.

Looks like the euphoria from free_money++ is wearing off already. They'll have to start talking about bailout 2.0 at this point.

So are we technically in a bull market again?

TBH, I think any bailout being secured by an equity stake is completely reasonable. Make the gov shares non exchangeable, and make it mandatory that the company buy back gov stocks (no refusal allowed) before any other stocks. Stock prices are deflated, so you could have the equity stake come at...

I think we'll stay pretty optimistic until the end of next week or so, but short term markets are hard to predict. Could implode by the end of today, or we might get as much as 3-4 weeks of optimism. I'm still positioned 100% cash and govies. Would be nice to profit on this upswing, but I'm...

I won't try to teach you the details of this because you obviously won't understand it, but I'm glad you have the faintest glimmer in your head that there is a difference. That's why I said not all negative results are bad, because it can be a matter of framing from a human perspective. But...

It'll be interest to see what kicks the recession back into gear. I did some research into how the fingers of REITs and similar holdings are playing in the markets. MBS market is in turmoil right now. Lots of hand slapping going around with organizations that use them as their main security...

False rallies like this always happen. Negative positions get popular, and at some point you gotta blow them up.

Mudcrush was smart enough to figure it out. Why can you take the root of a positive number and not a negative number without introducing special rules. There's a lot more than that, but obviously I'm wasting my time with you.

Their their, dont loose you're mined

1²=-1² In the negative spectrum you cannot do this operation in reverse, hense the imaginary number. That's the start of the path, walk it yourself bozo.

It's gonna be fun seeing how the markets react to the numbers tomorrow. It'll be a small taste of what's to come in the next few months, and I bet it's bitter.

For anyone feeling bad about their fund's preformance, go have a look at how leverage is preforming. Pretty much every one of those you can click on and see a MASSIVE crater. Extreme volatility is not ideal for playing with leverage. There's a lot of rich people who aint so rich no more...

The hopium has been flowing pretty hard, and we're still weeks from hospitals having trouble in the US. It wouldn't surprise me to see a false recovery for two weeks or so. We're way ahead of schedule on this crash.

I am one furry on a gaming nerd board, though I'll take full responsibility for causing this entire economic crash.

With this much panic and the liquidity issues as bad as they are, it is possible. This crash has been worse than the 1929 crash so far, and the outlook is still poor. The offer of unlimited QE has the potential to turn this economy into post wwi germany, where the reparations are going to the...

I've mentioned before that I see a 5-8k bottom possibility, though I'll likely buy in by 12k. The disease definitely the largest cause for movements, though they are going to be made worse by the underlying condition of credit problems. This is worse in cities and with old people, and that is...

My opinion on REITs has always been no. I have a very poor perception of their business model in general, thus haven't researched them in any strong detail. A quick perusal of the companies fundamentals atm make me believe they'll survive. They appear to be overvalued, and with perception of...

REITs are getting slaughtered by the market, which isn't surprising. As an investment fad, most are very over-valued and some are pretty much just scams. I forsee some getting liquidated and common stock holders getting exactly 0$ from their investment. This is a potential source of turmoil in...

This free liquidity and massive repo operations are not the right way forward. The Fed's quest to destroy the economy is still very alive and worrisome. I'm willing to bet there are at least a few funds that should have gone under and stayed afloat with this. Soon they are gonna go under even...

This fight between the house and senate is really unexpected. The optics are gonna look fucking AWFUL for the dems if it drags out even a couple days, and the markets are going to hate it.

Will be interesting to see where futures go. That stimulus is huge, but looks to be strongly bottom up (as it should be), with loans for businesses rather than bailouts. I'm curious where the text will end up and if it leaves a lot of questions on the table for large industries. It's way too...