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Dead cats & violent bear market bounces are always a thing. Doesn't mean the selling is over longer term. These moves over the long term are never a 1 way ticket. PS. 55% on my calls

4B buy side MOC

Up nearly 40% on AMD call options. 03Jun $95C @2.55 each. Going to close ITM at this rate.

Nevermind the fact that its been shown the bulk of the volume in all that chaos was hedge fund driven. Hedgies killing other hedgies. But, hey.. little man ape story makes for great click bait news coverage!

Thinking more on this as I was ironing my shirt... Let's also think on the gamer side of demand. How much of that 2020/2021 run on NVDA was also fueled by stimulus checks and people being told to stay home and feed off of unemployment benefits? Upgrade cycles: lots of free money was dished out...

Bigger picture question on NVDA: (Let me preface this by stating I lack a fair bit of crypto knowledge) Isn't there supposed to be some big move this year away from hardware mining coins? Think this is an Etherium thing? Point being, if hardware mining is about to fall off a cliff, what affect...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/melvin-capital-to-close-funds-return-cash-to-investors-11652910350?st=pbthmxwfxapm1s8&reflink=article_copyURL_share

16:27 Panama Canal Authority: Vessels are down in May y/y (Translated to: delayed China lockdown impact on supply chains - more to come?)

Cisco beatup 16:05 [CSCO] Reports Q3 $0.87 v $0.86e, Rev $12.8B v $13.3Be; Cuts FY outlook - Guides Q4 $0.76-0.84 v $0.93e, Rev -5.5% to -1% y/y v +6.1%e, non-GAAP gross margin 64-65% - Cuts FY22 $3.29-3.39 v $3.45e, Rev +2-3% y/y (prior: $3.41-3.46, Rev +5.5-6.5% y/y) - Service sales...

Something of note. (SPY) channeling over the last month (Daily chart). This is quite a small timeframe in the scheme of things, but so far has respected it.

Member these days of optimism? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

Whatever you want to think about today's selling, it is very important to note that this is still quite an orderly sell. Grinding lower. We haven't even begun to see capitulation and accellerated downside. Just something to be aware of if you are out there thinking of swinging for longs in this...

Yes (the 5 in the middle is timeframe)

TGT (Target) getting crushed today. Walmart just continuing a nosedive from yesterday. These are huge moves for any name, but especially true for retail behemoths. Their numbers and guidance are the real look at consumer spending and the true warning of recesson. WMT today WMT over 2 days:

Department of Energy (DOE) was expecting +1.5M barrels of crude, but had a -3.4M barrels draw actual. Gasoline was expected drawdown of -1M but was an actual draw of -4.8M. In other words, DOE was expecting a positive crude balance, but actually drew down negative about 3x expected positive...

10:30 *(US) DOE CRUDE: -3.4M V +1.5ME; GASOLINE: -4.8M V -1ME Big petroleum numbers misses.

Further $TGT interview today: 07:01 [TGT] CEO: From freight standpoint things have changed substantially (worse) from just 13 weeks ago, much more than we anticipated - CNBC - Inventory issue has added additional complexity across the board, expect issue to moderate over course of year -...

JPow speaking

Despite this, HD red on the day.

That staple WMT stock getting a little beat up premarket. 06:59 [WMT] Reports Q1 $1.30 v $1.46e, Rev $141.6B v $138.3Be - Guides Q2 EPS flat to up slightly y/y, Rev over +5%, US SSS (ex fuel) +4-5% - Cuts FY23 (ex divestitures) adj EPS -1% y/y, Raises Rev +4% (cc) (prior adj EPS +5-6% y/y...

14:50 [AAPL] Investor Michael Burry of 'The Big Short' has revealed a bet against Apple - CNBC Paywalled: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/16/michael-burry-of-the-big-short-reveals-a-bet-against-apple.html

14:17 [TWTR] Elon Musk: There is no way to know the number of bots on Twitter; Lowest estimate of Twitter bots would be 20% - tech conf comments

TWTR price back to pre-buyout announcement levels.

TSLA 100D is ~947 / 200D is ~912

TSLA under 700

Added on top of that most people's fad diet / excercise regimes and any equipment typically becomes a clothes rack sitting in the corner of a room after X months. I called a few times in Jan last year about vaccines rolling out, summer around the corner.. no one in their right mind is going to...

Bitcoin near $28k.

Cathie strikes again Cathie Wood Just Bought More Coinbase (COIN) Stock. Here’s Why. Ark Invest purchased 63,039 shares of COIN stock 4d ago

Cross posing from the Investing thread: https://fortune.com/2022/05/11/coinbase-bankruptcy-crypto-assets-safe-private-key-earnings-stock/

Oh, by the way.. Bitcoin under 30k

Read the same today. Basically Coinbase coming right out and saying you dont actually own your coins. Fucking hell.. that should trigger an absolute run of users taking their coins offline. https://fortune.com/2022/05/11/coinbase-bankruptcy-crypto-assets-safe-private-key-earnings-stock/

Fun days https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/10/tiger-global-hit-by-17b-hedge-fund-losses-has-nearly-depleted-its-latest-vc-fund/?guccounter=1

CPI hot (again). 08:30 *(US) APR CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 8.3% V 8.1%E (annual pace moves off four decade highs) - CPI (ex-food/energy) M/M: 0.6% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 6.2% v 6.0%e - CPI Index NSA: 289.10 v 288.715e - CPI Core Index SA: 290.455 v 289.822e

All working as intended. What can possibly go wrong? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-10/credit-cards-jump-mortgages-ease-in-latest-ny-fed-debt-report?srnd=premium&sref=9HT8lz40

"under control" .. the new "transitory"

- FOLLOW UP: Mester: The process will not be smooth, road ahead will be bumpy; Unemployment may have to rise as part of rate raising process - press interview - We may get another quarter of negative growth (implying a recession) - Want to see evidence that inflation is slowing - Do not expect...

Mester in a Bloomberg interview today also said: "Fed hasnt ruled out 75bp hikes forever"

Aaaaaand... we're red on the day on all indexes. SPY approaching yesterday's low. I can smell the capitulation phase brewing.

CPI is definitely 8:30am tomorrow.

On top of that: 09:38 (US) Fed's Mester (FOMC voter, hawk): We need to move rates up at a pace to get inflation moving - Comfortable moving 50 basis points at next couple meetings but will remain data dependent - Need to see compelling evidence that inflation is moving lower, have NOT seen that...