2025-2026 NFL Season Thread - God hates the Chargers

Wombat

Wombat

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FYI, add another one:

On one hand, I get it, Josh Allen never making a Super Bowl suggests there's something wrong with the team - but that could just be not having a good enough team, and / or running into perennial buzzsaws.

Realistically, if we fire a fourth to a third of the coaches every year, its hard to imagine anyone having any long term success - but here's another spot where the sport doesn't care about long term performance over average, we only care about the ~3% that win the Super Bowl each year.
 
jooka

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Most coaches on bad teams certainly don't get much in terms of job security, but putting McDermott in that group doesn't add up for me, he had nearly a decade with the team, 8 with Allen.
 
Wombat

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Also, not only are the Bills keeping their GM, he's actually getting a promotion, when you could make the argument this is one of the worst versions of the team recently.
 
Daezuel

Daezuel

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hory said:
Bears should have gone for 2. Why chance what could happen in overtime?
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Everyone is saying that but they were getting stopped on 3rd and 4th and shorts all game and the Rams offense was not doing well.

They got the ball in OT and should have won without a careless throw and amazing int.
 
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Kirun

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Wombat said:
Also, not only are the Bills keeping their GM, he's actually getting a promotion, when you could make the argument this is one of the worst versions of the team recently.
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GMs can't keep teams loaded with talent forever. McDermott is a shit coach that should've been fired after the 2021 season, after letting KC score in 13 seconds.
 
hory

hory

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2 point conversion requires one successful play.
Going to overtime requires both your offense and defense to be successful.

if a team in the playoffs hasn’t developed a play that is over 90 percent likely to score in that situation, well you get last nights outcome for the bears.
 
Kirun

Kirun

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hory said:
if a team in the playoffs hasn’t developed a play that is over 90 percent likely to score in that situation, well you get last nights outcome for the bears.
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Yeah, guys! How come teams just don't have a play cooked up that is 40-50% MORE successful than the average? EZPZ. Who knew the NFL was this hard? Hire this man immediately!
 
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hory

hory

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Are you that stupid? You must be looking for the round ball thread. You’re making a statement that all plays are successful at the same percent. Certain plays are well over 85 percent success for some teams. But hey it worked out for Chicago.
 
Kirun

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Clearly I am. Who knew that FoH had the world's greatest head coach just sitting around, unhired.

Do you honestly believe that if HCs had 90% successful 2pt conversion plays they wouldn't be going for 2 literally every single time? Not even the "tush push" has a 90% success rate and they want to ban it. But sure, HCs are all retards who don't use these mythical 90% success plays to win every game.
 
hory

hory

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Using a big sample size for 2 yard gains the odds are better than overtime. You’re going to need to score a touchdown either way more likely then not so why not try it from the two yard line.


Across the league:

• Average yards per rush: ~4.3
• Average yards per pass play: ~6.0
• Short‑yardage conversion rates (1–3 yards to go) are very high, usually 65–75% depending on team and situation.


From historical play‑by‑play analysis:

• Teams face 2nd‑and‑2 or 3rd‑and‑2 several times per game.
• Leaguewide, teams convert 3rd‑and‑2 roughly 70% of the time.


So while we can’t give an exact count without running a full data query, we can say:

📌 Teams successfully gain 2+ yards on short‑yardage downs thousands of times per season across the league.

the sample size on 2 yard gains is far larger then 2 point conversions because the shitty teams that are losing go for two more often because good teams don’t need to.
My point was a Super Bowl team should be able to convert there, if not you’re not going to make it to the main event.

Since it was brought up the Tush Push stats


Season Attempts Conversions Success
2024 48 39 81.25%
2023 42 35 83.33%
2022 39 36 92.31%
 
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Daezuel

Daezuel

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Why didn't they use this 90% play on 4th and goal at the 2?

The 99% play was taking the 2 gimmie FGs instead and not needing to try for 2 to win.
 
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