Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies

Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

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From what I have been seeing/reading you're pretty much in line. Most people seem to think the "break out" or "break down" will happen sometime around mid June. If you use Tradingview there's this really odd indicator you can use called the Hash Ribbons. It has predicted Buy signals with an eerie accuracy several times in the past. Someone recently added a line to predict when it would signal another buy (If you're using Tradingview search for "Hash Ribbons JD") and it says next buy signal in 3 days. Historically it takes about a week after the buy signal for the price breakout to happen. And that puts it 10 days out, around the 11-12th of this month.

Combine this with the pendant formed by tracking this current sideway trading and....
View attachment 356275

The two reasons I have hope are those bottom indicators. The BBWP historically has shown that once you hit 100% volatility during a downtrend (the rainbow line), once the SMA starts trending downwards and volatility gets down into the blue is , the majority of the time, when a big push up happens for BTC. The one on the bottom is the Hash Ribbons and it's indicating the miner market capitulation happened back around April 25th, and the buy sign should happen on the 4th of June. Without those two indicators I will admit I'd be close to pulling a "move every single penny to stablescoins and wait to see which way she goes", but as it is I have only drawn around 25% out to stables....
Nice analysis.

Got anything similar for ETH or is it pretty much tracking BTC?
 

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TLDR; Musk's 35D chess master plan is the reformation of BTC for renewables (solar) mining, and making it the basis for the Mars colony, and the underpinning of the trans-planetary economy.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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TLDR; Musk's 35D chess master plan is the reformation of BTC for renewables (solar) mining, and making it the basis for the Mars colony, and the underpinning of the trans-planetary economy.
Or he was just high when he came up with that plan.
 
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Tmac

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From what I have been seeing/reading you're pretty much in line. Most people seem to think the "break out" or "break down" will happen sometime around mid June. If you use Tradingview there's this really odd indicator you can use called the Hash Ribbons. It has predicted Buy signals with an eerie accuracy several times in the past. Someone recently added a line to predict when it would signal another buy (If you're using Tradingview search for "Hash Ribbons JD") and it says next buy signal in 3 days. Historically it takes about a week after the buy signal for the price breakout to happen. And that puts it 10 days out, around the 11-12th of this month.

Combine this with the pendant formed by tracking this current sideway trading and....
View attachment 356275

The two reasons I have hope are those bottom indicators. The BBWP historically has shown that once you hit 100% volatility during a downtrend (the rainbow line), once the SMA starts trending downwards and volatility gets down into the blue is , the majority of the time, when a big push up happens for BTC. The one on the bottom is the Hash Ribbons and it's indicating the miner market capitulation happened back around April 25th, and the buy sign should happen on the 4th of June. Without those two indicators I will admit I'd be close to pulling a "move every single penny to stablescoins and wait to see which way she goes", but as it is I have only drawn around 25% out to stables....

The buy signal is on June 10th ish or the price breakout is on June 10th ish?

I was playing around with MarketWatch and found Bollinger Bands. Apparently, they're SMA's on a % to account for volatility and help predict breakouts.

Capture.PNG


The first blue circle where the high and low bands are "squeezing" is called consolidation. Consolidation is a signal for a breakout. The red arrow shows the candle breaking above the high and therfore stonks go up. Conversely, if a candle breaks the low at the end of consolidation stonks go down.

The blue arrows show where we are now, and the high and low will have to squeeze pretty rapidly to get to consolidation over the next 10 days. Theoretically, as the high and low signals squeeze, a breakout will occur and we'll know what kind of game we're playing.

Bollinger_chart_2_breakout.png


It is also preferable to see the upper and lower band starting to widen in a breakout scenario. The widening of the bands suggests an increase in volatility to confirm the move out of a consolidation and into a new trend.

Bollinger_chart_3_widening_bands.png


Based on my first chart it looked like we were entering consolidation in the beginning of April, where the candle broke above the high, but then it defintely broke down. So, my guess is that it wasn't a tight enough squeeze to be a true indicator and there was still too much volatility. See below, where the first squeeze shows the correct breakout, and the "second squeeze" which still may be too volatile to be a real squeeze, shows a head fake.

Capture2.PNG


But, again, most recently, we see a squeeze occur, the breakout happen below the low and we see the corresponding downward trend occur.

Capture3.PNG


So, it seems the takeaway is that the more extreme the squeeze, the lower the volatility, and the more reliable the breakout signal becomes. The wider the bands, the more volatility, and therefore the less reliable the breakout.

[edit] Just realized I didn't use candles in several charts. The breakouts are harder to read using lines, so sorry for the lines.
 
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Haus

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TLDR; Musk's 35D chess master plan is the reformation of BTC for renewables (solar) mining, and making it the basis for the Mars colony, and the underpinning of the trans-planetary economy.

My bet on the Musk agenda is that he knows he needs to be involved in crypto, and his ego demands he be the most important person in one. BTC already has a God (Satoshi) and a Jesus (Michael Saylor), ETH Already has the same (Both in Vitalik Buterin). So he latched onto Doge since it already had some meme to it (and he loved memes) and had virtual no big driving personality behind it.

In his perfect world he turns Doge into his idea crypto and by that point probably also owns the majority of it.
 
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Haus

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The buy signal is on June 10th ish or the price breakout is on June 10th ish?

If the Hash Ribbons play out as usual the buy signal will be in around 3 days (on the 5th) and the convergence of the lines from this narrowing pendant happens around the 11th. So if it breaks upward I would suspect that happening around the 9th-10th.
 

Tmac

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More Bollinger Bands. ETH looking wildly volatile atm.

Capture.PNG


Gamestop coming out of consolidation.

Capture2.PNG


AMC to the moon after coming out of consolidation at $10.88 on May 13th.

Capture3.PNG


Muh DOGE still playing off the April squeeze. Lots of volatility atm obviously.

Capture.PNG
 
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Caliane

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btc and eth have both been trending up for the last 10 days. eth especially.

(I say this late, as both spiking again right now.) But, I'd expect eth to break 3k again, then pull back no less then 2.5k.
 

Haus

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On the BTC Hourly....
1622659107073.png


You can see with the BBWP it's now in deep blue, with SMA downtrend from the point it went red. That's a positive in general. It's about to bang into my wedge line of "support/resistance". If it passes that and can re-test it without going below it, I would tentatively say I'm more optimistic.... If it bounces off back into the pendant then we keep trying until we run out of pendant....
 

Arden

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Anyone still holding MATIC? I'm starting to read that there is a liquidity crisis. No one is selling it apparently. Anyone know what's up?
 
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Haus

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Anyone still holding MATIC? I'm starting to read that there is a liquidity crisis. No one is selling it apparently. Anyone know what's up?
I'm still holding a bag of that. It's been a solid for me through this correction.

Quickswap runs on Polygon (i.e. MATIC) and here's what they show on their analytics page right now :
1622719751622.png

Now that is liquidity for all pairs they trade, but I know the MATIC-ETH pair on Quickswap has over $100M in it by itself.

Looking at Coingecko it shows MATIC with an $11b market cap. Tradingview shows that it's volume has been tapered a little, but it's in line proportionally with the market as a whole as of late. Looking at the "real time" trading action on Coinbase Pro it seems to indicate moderately strong volumes on both the buy and sell sides. Admittedly though it seems strange in Crypto to see something trading THIS flat over days like MATIC has as of late. (feels like it's been locked into a +/- 5% range for a long time)

Now, with that said, a couple trades I did on Quickswap yesterday (shuffling stablecoins into DAI) took longer than normal. That being around a 30 second confirmation time rather than the 10-15 seconds I was used to. I did notice that.

On other topics. BTC officially broke up out of my pendant, but I'm staying cautious on it until I see it close a bar or two above 40k.
1622720073735.png
 
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Arden

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I'm still holding a bag of that. It's been a solid for me through this correction.

Quickswap runs on Polygon (i.e. MATIC) and here's what they show on their analytics page right now :
View attachment 356526
Now that is liquidity for all pairs they trade, but I know the MATIC-ETH pair on Quickswap has over $100M in it by itself.

Looking at Coingecko it shows MATIC with an $11b market cap. Tradingview shows that it's volume has been tapered a little, but it's in line proportionally with the market as a whole as of late. Looking at the "real time" trading action on Coinbase Pro it seems to indicate moderately strong volumes on both the buy and sell sides. Admittedly though it seems strange in Crypto to see something trading THIS flat over days like MATIC has as of late. (feels like it's been locked into a +/- 5% range for a long time)

Now, with that said, a couple trades I did on Quickswap yesterday (shuffling stablecoins into DAI) took longer than normal. That being around a 30 second confirmation time rather than the 10-15 seconds I was used to. I did notice that.

On other topics. BTC officially broke up out of my pendant, but I'm staying cautious on it until I see it close a bar or two above 40k.
View attachment 356527

So it sounds to me from what you are saying that there isn't actually a liquidity issue at all, but volume is just fairly flat- i.e. interest in buying or selling has dried up considerably.
 

Haus

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So it sounds to me from what you are saying that there isn't actually a liquidity issue at all, but volume is just fairly flat- i.e. interest in buying or selling has dried up considerably.
Yeah, which makes some sense. In general most of the people I listen to who do analytics are in a "wait and see which way this breaks" mode. And usually that means if you're in something which has been moderately resistant to the worst of the correction (like MATIC and ADA have been for me) you just hodl those up and wait out the storm.... I only recently replaced some positions into ETH when I started feeling more comfy that it was going to uptrend.

Current balance :
1622725932862.png

My two unstable hot stripper girlfriends right now are Quick and OMG. Quick mostly being because doing LP on Quickswap you get your rewards payout in quick, so I bought a little extra and am playing the MATIC/QUICK LP. My conservative upbringing is starting to fall in love with vaulting stuff on AAVE for lower but seeming consistent returns. (Currently storing some MATIC and DAI there)
 
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Arden

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Looks to me like Whales have their hands in the crypto cookie jar while retail traders are distracted chasing shiny meme stocks.