Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies

Flobee

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I have no venom. Disagreeing with you doesn't mean I have "venom". Its called disagreeing with you. I have stated many times (and I guess you dont read it), I have bought and sold BTC and I am currently short Puts on IBIT contracts. Maybe @Blazin or @Jysin can explain to you what writing Puts on IBIT mean. Perhaps you don't follow options.

I am going to try this again, like I said this is a convo. I am not full of venom or some such. Shit ask @Chanur what I am like on Twitter.

We, meaning you and a couple of others so far on this thread, have a disagreement on what certain words mean. And I think that is the crux of it. in the financial world, instruments have a value. Many times that value is what something is worth to the buyer. How that value is determined is what varies between both market participants and the individual instrument. Stocks are "generally" valued based on a numerous amount of metrics that are commonly referred to as fundamentals. But not always. <Cough> PLTR <Cough>. Even worse would be the meme stonks. But I digress. Crypto has a value. Be it Doge, BTC or even the Hawktuah coin (praise be her name). This is because someone is willing to buy them.

What crypto does not have, and this is where we are hitting a speedbump, is an intrinsic fundamental value as defined by the financial world. An instrument can have more than one type of value. Options have both time value and intrinsic value. Stocks have book value, stock price value etc. The stock price of a profitable company is generally priced as a multiple of its earnings. Crypto, all crypto, doesn't have this. No matter how much you believe it does, it doesn't. It has value, but its the value someone is willing to pay for it. That's it. The blockchain isn't BTC. You don't buy and sell the blockchain. You buy and sell BTC. If I own BTC, I don't own the blockchain or even the smallest portion of it. A bored Ape NFT sold for $3.4m. The buyer valued it as such. It did not and does not have an intrinsic value of $3.4m, it has that value strictly because someone was willing to pay that for it.

That's all I am saying. I recognize that BTC only has the market value of the current buyer. You may or may not. This is entirely different than how most stocks are valued. Macy's the department store chain has a floor value. Its stock cannot go to zero. Why? Because it owns real estate valued in billions if not tens of billions. If its stock price falls below its book value at some point it gets bought and can be sold off piece by piece for a profit. This is the difference in the terms value and fundamentals I was trying to explain. BTC isn't Macy's. BTC price can go to $1m and Macy's can't (realistically). BTC price can go to zero, and Macy's can't. The reasons lie in intrinsic value.
Yea I totally agree with this and I, at least tried, to point out that we were using the term fundamentals differently.

I'm in no way trying to say that Bitcoin is valued in the same way a stock is, I don't thing anyone is trying to say that.

Regarding you owning Bitcoin that's not really the same as liking or disliking it. That point is really irrelevant and perhaps I should have just left it out. Similarly with using Boomer I'm lumping you into a category, perhaps unfairly, of a trait in my Boomer friends where they struggle separating their understanding of how things have worked historically to how they work now.

I stand by the reasons I believe Bitcoin has value as stated in previous posts but perhaps we were simply talking past one another
 
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Sanrith Descartes

I was forced to self-deport from the /pol thread
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I stand by the reasons I believe Bitcoin has value as stated in previous posts but perhaps we were simply talking past one another
Welcome to FOH :)

As to the BTC Jesus thing, it wasn't meant to insult. Ok, maybe a little bit. I chat about this stuff online all day and for some folks it is like a religion. There really is no conversation. My apologies. I like the image though and I am definitely going to be using it on Twitter :trollface:
 
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Tmac

Adventurer
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I have no venom. Disagreeing with you doesn't mean I have "venom". Its called disagreeing with you. I have stated many times (and I guess you dont read it), I have bought and sold BTC and I am currently short Puts on IBIT contracts. Maybe @Blazin or @Jysin can explain to you what writing Puts on IBIT mean. Perhaps you don't follow options.

I am going to try this again, like I said this is a convo. I am not full of venom or some such. Shit ask @Chanur what I am like on Twitter.

We, meaning you and a couple of others so far on this thread, have a disagreement on what certain words mean. And I think that is the crux of it. in the financial world, instruments have a value. Many times that value is what something is worth to the buyer. How that value is determined is what varies between both market participants and the individual instrument. Stocks are "generally" valued based on a numerous amount of metrics that are commonly referred to as fundamentals. But not always. <Cough> PLTR <Cough>. Even worse would be the meme stonks. But I digress. Crypto has a value. Be it Doge, BTC or even the Hawktuah coin (praise be her name). This is because someone is willing to buy them.

What crypto does not have, and this is where we are hitting a speedbump, is an intrinsic fundamental value as defined by the financial world. An instrument can have more than one type of value. Options have both time value and intrinsic value. Stocks have book value, stock price value etc. The stock price of a profitable company is generally priced as a multiple of its earnings. Crypto, all crypto, doesn't have this. No matter how much you believe it does, it doesn't. It has value, but its the value someone is willing to pay for it. That's it. The blockchain isn't BTC. You don't buy and sell the blockchain. You buy and sell BTC. If I own BTC, I don't own the blockchain or even the smallest portion of it. A bored Ape NFT sold for $3.4m. The buyer valued it as such. It did not and does not have an intrinsic value of $3.4m, it has that value strictly because someone was willing to pay that for it.

That's all I am saying. I recognize that BTC only has the market value of the current buyer. You may or may not. This is entirely different than how most stocks are valued. Macy's the department store chain has a floor value. Its stock cannot go to zero. Why? Because it owns real estate valued in billions if not tens of billions. If its stock price falls below its book value at some point it gets bought and can be sold off piece by piece for a profit. This is the difference in the terms value and fundamentals I was trying to explain. BTC isn't Macy's. BTC price can go to $1m and Macy's can't (realistically). BTC price can go to zero, and Macy's can't. The reasons lie in intrinsic value.

You’re a smart guy and you clearly understand traditional valuation frameworks. But your framework is built around corporate finance, and Bitcoin doesn’t live in that world. You’re trying to measure a non-corporate monetary asset the same way you measure a cash-flow-producing business.

You’re right that Bitcoin doesn’t have "CORPORATE" fundamentals but neither do:
  • gold
  • commodities
  • currencies
  • fine art
  • land without improvements
  • eurodollars
  • barrels of oil
  • collectibles
  • even the USD itself (post-1971, when we fully detached from gold)
It’s not Macy's. It doesn’t produce earnings. IT'S NOT A BUSINESS. It’s not judged on PE ratios or cash flow multiples. So saying “BTC has no intrinsic value because it has no earnings” is the same argument gold skeptics make about gold, yet gold has held value for 5,000 years. Same with oil, art, collectibles, foreign currencies, undeveloped land, and basically every non-cash-flowing asset on earth. None of those have “corporate fundamentals” either, yet nobody claims the euro or a barrel of oil has no intrinsic value.

Bitcoin is a completely different asset class, so you have to use different fundamentals.

Bitcoin’s fundamentals aren’t earnings, they’re monetary and network-based. Things like:
  • fixed supply (21M)
  • non-sovereign issuance
  • decentralized
  • settlement finality
  • global liquidity
  • network security
  • miner investment
  • adoption
  • credible neutrality (no CEO, no board, no government)
Those are its equivalents to “fundamentals.” No one on a trading desk is valuing BTC using discounted cashflows. They look at it the same way they look at gold or FX. AS A MONETARY ASSET whose value comes from scarcity, utility, and demand for a store of value outside traditional systems.

And yeah, theoretically BTC can go to zero. So can gold. So can the euro. Saying something could go to zero doesn’t actually distinguish it.

The real question is whether the asset has monetary properties people value. Bitcoin clearly does and it’s now part of major ETFs, held by institutions, custodied by BlackRock/Fidelity, used as pristine collateral, integrated into the global settlement stack, etc. That’s why “zero” is basically off the table from a practical market standpoint.
 

Tmac

Adventurer
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Seems like the core misunderstanding here is that you're using the corporate finance definition of intrinsic value (cash flows, liquidation, book value) for an asset that isn’t a corporation.

You can disagree with it, you can think its monetary properties are overrated, you can think it’s overvalued. But saying “BTC has no intrinsic value” because it doesn’t have earnings is just category error. Wrong framework.