Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies

Ravishing · Nov 3, 2020

maskedmelon said:
It doesn’t need to become a reserve currency. It isn’t even much of a currency in the traditional sense. While it is very clearly a store of value, I don’t see it as much of a medium of exchange and I don’t think that it needs to be one. We value gold in dollars too, but that does nothing to diminish the value of gold. BTC is valuable because it is scarce, secure and accessible.

The $1.5 trillion dollars that you referenced is just actual paper money. M2 (total US deposits + printed currency) is closer to $19 trillion. That aside, the market cap of gold still sits at $9 trillion despite the $1.5 trillion in paper money. It isn’t the physical printing of money that devalues fiat, it is the generation of new money in general, much of which is already digital in the form of electronic deposits.

When talking about 21 million Bitcoins, that's also money supply, so imo it's right to compare apples to apples.
If BTC ever takes over, you can bet there will be credits/debits on it too.

Flobee · Nov 3, 2020

Ravishing said:
Gold is also a currency that's been used far longer than any of the fiat currencies in existence. Expecting Bitcoin to match Gold in such a short timespan is foolish. And Gold is also a commodity, something Bitcoin can never be. USD was backed by Gold originally. Gold value isn't tied to USD or the US economy. It actually trends the opposite way in most cases.

I'll quote the article I've been posting as they address this point well IMO.

As it turns out, bitcoin is better at being gold than gold — and not just incrementally, but by an order of magnitude or 10X better. It is a widely held belief in technology circles that when a product is 10X better than its closest substitute, it will escape its competition. We believe Bitcoin has achieved this. Portability. For example, Bitcoin works like your email, which means it’s borderless and never sleeps — any amount can be sent anywhere in the world over the Internet, 24/7/365. This makes it not just very portable, but also very censorship resistant (e.g., blockades, seizures, etc.). It’s not hard to move bitcoin in the middle of a pandemic, a war, or a change of government. It’s easy to move bitcoin, full stop.

Again it comes back to belief. There is room for reasonable people to disagree on this. I do however encourage even those that do not believe in this space's viability to pay attention to what is going on. If you're wrong it could be quite costly. Don't have to spend a penny, just watch the space develop.

LachiusTZ · Nov 3, 2020

Flobee said:
Opinion's are like assholes. I could certainly be wrong on this, I don't claim to have a crystal ball. I'll continue to plead my case here because if I'm right I'd like to have some of you here along for the ride. Maybe crypto isn't a once in a lifetime investment opportunity. If it is though, I'd like to see more normal folks along for the ride rather than wait for institutions to buy it all.

I'm consistently seeing news that pushes me towards this opinion and actively share it here. I am however happy to see counter arguments as I do worry that I could be caught up in a narrative that proves false. I enjoy talking about it regardless.

I'm honestly more excited about Ethereum's progress but the Bitcoin case is both more prescient and more certain in my mind. I don't think anything replaces Bitcoin, although other coins may have bigger use cases long term.

I don't think you are wrong really, just would urge some tempering of the mania.

Ravishing · Nov 3, 2020

Flobee said:
I'll quote the article I've been posting as they address this point well IMO.

Again it comes back to belief. There is room for reasonable people to disagree on this. I do however encourage even those that do not believe in this space's viability to pay attention to what is going on. If you're wrong it could be quite costly. Don't have to spend a penny, just watch the space develop.

I have a little of both for different reasons.
Bitcoin has a much higher upside.
Gold is very very stable and continues trending upward no matter what over time.

I don't value portability so much... I think BTC can easily suffer if shit hits the fan. Sometimes having that hard currency in a safe might actually be the best option. Moving BTC requires an electronic device, what happens if the networks collapse? Large mining operations get hit? Etc?

LachiusTZ · Nov 3, 2020

Re gold

As an investment, yeah BTC is better.

As a store of value, hard asset, etc?.. right now I dunno if I would say good is absolutely better, but in the aggregate, definitely. In every way.

Gold has real use, as said earlier. It's supply is finite (in our lives). It's physical. While there is fraud, you don't see it often at the amounts normal humans buy.

BTC is as fleeting as your wallet key. Nobody is losing 1000lbs of gold.

That being said, I don't own any. I prefer silver, but don't have massive stores of it like a doomer, but did get a few hundred ounces in late 2019 / early 2020 while the price was low.

It's a true tangible hard asset which you can posses. That safeguards against inflation. BTC has some inflationary safeguards, but if we get real runaway inflation I don't see what would prevent 1 BTC for loaf of bread etc. It's a derivative of fiat currency. Not a hard asset

Flobee · Nov 3, 2020

LachiusTZ said:
I don't think you are wrong really, just would urge some tempering of the mania.

I wouldn't label it as a mania, but you're free to. I enjoy following the space and want to share it here to help out some forum bro's if I'm right.

Ravishing said:
I have a little of both for different reasons.
Bitcoin has a much higher upside.
Gold is very very stable and continues trending upward no matter what over time.

I don't value portability so much... I think BTC can easily suffer if shit hits the fan. Sometimes having that hard currency in a safe might actually be the best option. Moving BTC requires an electronic device, what happens if the networks collapse? Large mining operations get hit? Etc?

This is a very reasonable outlook. Bitcoin is far from a sure thing.

Bitcoin is a unique asset class. It should be held with other stores of value. A small hedge (1-2%) of total wealth gives you exposure to the upside without risking much. I am more confident and go heavier than 1-2% but I wouldn't suggest that for anyone that hasn't come to the same conclusions that I have.

maskedmelon · Nov 3, 2020

Ravishing said:
When talking about 21 million Bitcoins, that's also money supply, so imo it's right to compare apples to apples.
If BTC ever takes over, you can bet there will be credits/debits on it too.

I entirely agree, but I just don’t see it ever entirely supplanting other currencies. I don’t think that it needs to though. Yes, gold has been used as a medium of exchange in the past, but it isn’t used or even widely recognized as one presently. I can’t go out to dinner and pay with a couple grams of gold. That doesn’t make it any less valuable though.

LachiusTZ · Nov 3, 2020

Flobee

Negro, In like 2 hours we went from 20k BTC, to 500k BTC, now 21 million BTC

That's manic

I'be bought some, will continue to buy more, but shit dude... That's mania.

Doesn't make you wrong tho.

Flobee · Nov 3, 2020

LachiusTZ said:
Flobee

Negro, In like 2 hours we went from 20k BTC, to 500k BTC, now 21 million BTC

That's manic

I'be bought some, will continue to buy more, but shit dude... That's mania.

Doesn't make you wrong tho.

Wait what? 21 million BTC is how many will exist, the max possible circulating supply. I don't have a hard target for the price. I think 500k case makes sense, but I wouldn't call that in the next few years. It's just a good article. You should read it, you'd understand why I say so I think even if you disagree.

Only price I'm fairly confident of is that 20k will not be the top in the next few years.

LachiusTZ · Nov 3, 2020

Flobee said:
Wait what? 21 million BTC is how many will exist, the max possible circulating supply. I don't have a hard target for the price. I think 500k case makes sense, but I wouldn't call that in the next few years. It's just a good article. You should read it, you'd understand why I say so I think even if you disagree.

Only price I'm fairly confident of is that 20k will not be the top in the next few years.

Why would I read it? That's what I have you for. Lol

I'd say I feel dumb for the 21 million comment, but the shame was burned out of me long ago. Lol

OU Ariakas · Nov 3, 2020

If Bitcoin goes to 100k then all of the other coins are going to be worth 10x what they are now simply by dint of being a cryptocurrency and everyone is going to want in on some part of it.

Flobee · Nov 3, 2020

OU Ariakas said:
If Bitcoin goes to 100k then all of the other coins are going to be worth 10x what they are now simply by dint of being a cryptocurrency and everyone is going to want in on some part of it.

High risk high reward, but yea, that's how I see it too.

maskedmelon · Nov 3, 2020

I’ve a hard time deciding which altcoins/tokens to go with. There Are just so many of them. There are a couple that look super amazing to me and others that I think will do well, but I am just not sure how well and it is hard to make a case for investing in a lot of them when you compare it to a projected ROI of 3000-4000% for BTC as of now.

I really like the idea of LINK and BAT, but I just don’t see them getting 30-40x growth. The potential for BAT is huge, but it’s success is married to that of Brave and it is far less clear to me how that will pan out. XRP is another with a great use case, but it is difficult to imagine a $9-10 ripple, because the higher it’s price goes, the greater the opportunity cost of retaining a pile of them for transactions and competing for them on a market could result in unacceptable levels of volatility. I need to read more though! I am trying to get my head deeper into ETH and all its tokens.

LachiusTZ · Nov 3, 2020

I'm buying ethereum and BTC, will try mining the shit coins when I get a new gpu in a month or so.

Flobee · Nov 3, 2020

maskedmelon said:
I’ve a hard time deciding which altcoins/tokens to go with. There Are just so many of them. There are a couple that look super amazing to me and others that I think will do well, but I am just not sure how well and it is hard to make a case for investing in a lot of them when you compare it to a projected ROI of 3000-4000% for BTC as of now.

I really like the idea of LINK and BAT, but I just don’t see them getting 30-40x growth. The potential for BAT is huge, but it’s success is married to that of Brave and it is far less clear to me how that will pan out. XRP is another with a great use case, but it is difficult to imagine a $9-10 ripple, because the higher it’s price goes, the greater the opportunity cost of retaining a pile of them for transactions and competing for them on a market could result in unacceptable levels of volatility. I need to read more though! I am trying to get my head deeper into ETH and all its tokens.

Altcoin investment really seems like blind luck. You can do all the research you want into the teams, technology, and market fit and still be completely wrong. I think of it as angel investing. Throw a small amount into projects that look promising after some research and don't think about it too much. Crypto is already so risky, its hard to justify going hard on any of these. Some will undoubtedly be enormous though.

There is also the fact that a team/idea may be excellent, but their token doesn't actually capture any value (see Ripple and XRP). So you're just a bagholder on their coin with no real upside attached to the ownership. My 2c

maskedmelon · Nov 3, 2020

So I am starting to wrap my head around DeFi. I know that there are a ton of things that follow under the umbrella, but like for one simple example, I could buy WBTC in an interest bearing account, take out a loan for ETH, buy BTC with my borrowed ETH, then sit and earn interest on my WBTC, while the borrowed ETH invested in my new BTC depreciates and then purchase devalued ETH at some later date to retrieve my BTC, walking away with it, the interest that I earned on it and whatever the delta was from the ETH depreciation against BTC?

Flobee · Nov 3, 2020

maskedmelon said:
So I am starting to wrap my head around DeFi. I know that there are a ton of things that follow under the umbrella, but like for one simple example, I could buy WBTC in an interest bearing account, take out a loan for ETH, buy BTC with my borrowed ETH, then sit and earn interest on my WBTC, while the borrowed ETH invested in my new BTC depreciates and then purchase devalued ETH at some later date to retrieve my BTC, walking away with it, the interest that I earned on it and whatever the delta was from the ETH depreciation against BTC?

So thats the kind of shit that is being done in "DeFi Farming" I couldn't say whether there are any miscalculations in that rabbit-hole of logic but I do try to avoid the complicated schemes. I use Compound a bit, Uniswap, but I've stayed clear of the farming stuff as I don't understand it well and it seems like every 4th one is a scam that nabs a couple million. I know that some people that are really into it are making astounding returns, just no room for a mistake or miscalculation. All loans are collateralized and if you get liquidated you lost more than you borrowed usually.

The promise for the space is enormous, but its still the wild west.

OU Ariakas · Nov 3, 2020

Do you know why I'm betting on TRX as a good scamcoin? Because it is mainly used for online gambling. If that catches on in any way in the US to get around the online gambling ban then we are good!

Flobee · Nov 5, 2020

TA folks say there are no real points of resistance between 14k and 20k. We'll see what happens. Number go up

woot! · Nov 5, 2020

not sure how legit/reliable this is, but https://twitter.com/fireice_uk seems to be claiming that he can trace Monero transactions ?
If true, XMR should go down quite a lot.

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