Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies

And crypto is pumping. Got to love fresh negotiation/walk back tweets in the morning. Might as well throw your TA books out the window and monitor twitter instead.

Dalren said:

And crypto is pumping. Got to love fresh negotiation/walk back tweets in the morning. Might as well throw your TA books out the window and monitor twitter instead.

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You might be sarcastic, but there is some element of truth in this. This has turned into a headline (tweet) driven market since Trump stepped into office.

The most insane market moves of the year have been on Trump tweets and press conferences.

Jysin said:

Jesus. That’s insane

No idea what I’m looking at for “leaderboard”, but if taken at face value, why the fuck are you margined to the tits if you have a $60m balance?

Again, assuming the person is real, how greedy can you get? You could literally have cashed out everything at $60m, threw it into the most boring ass long term US treasuries and lived off approx $3m USD per year for decades and never touched the original $60m investment.

I don’t get people.. or my financial aspirations are seemingly mundane.

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I mean, he still could've been a retarded crypto gambler and cashed out half of it. Hell, even $10m and played with another $50m.

Betting all of it at that point is just retarded.

My 2c, this big price movement had a lot more to do with financial plumbing issues than it did Trump/China. The day before this all popped off everyone was talking about Tricolor and/or some other auto lenders having billions disappear and banks were trying to claw back money that didn't exist. Then all of the sudden we have, an entirely unrelated, liquidity event. Same kind of crap happened before COVID and it got memory holed.

I'm not sure why everyone just forgot about this and assumed Trump tweeted this into existence. Shoot I think there were even some other related stories that I can't find right now. Thursday was a nasty financial news day and everyone forgot immediately.

No time right now, but I can dog up some headlines/articles on this later if needed. People dramatically over estimate how much power political stuff has over financial movements imo, money is moving well before the "trigger" event if you're paying attention.

It may be no more complicated than a bunch of bots have trained themselves on a pattern of "Trump tweets about tariffs = price drop" and sell because of it. You'd make good money just swing trading that if you could respond in seconds like bots can. And that pattern would reinforce itself each time.

Bitcoin losing the 200D MA here.

@ $107k

This played out exactly as expected.

Yeah I cashed what little crypto I have left. Been reading some group chats on local forums and they're all talking about end of the 4 year cycle and waiting for a recovery to cash out, which tells me it's probably not going to.

I put up some buys at basement prices in case we have a liquidation cascade again.

Lambourne said:

Yeah I cashed what little crypto I have left. Been reading some group chats on local forums and they're all talking about end of the 4 year cycle and waiting for a recovery to cash out, which tells me it's probably not going to.

I put up some buys at basement prices in case we have a liquidation cascade again.

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I would love to see a full blowout of MSTR nav price for a real Bitcoin panic. Wishful thinking, I know.

I think its something like 61% of all BTC have a cost basis above $95k (last price moved). I don't think we stay at these levels for very long. Perhaps my bias is blinding me here, but I don't think this cycle is over, nothing about this feels anything like past cycle ends. The only relevant news is macro stuff thats barely relevant to BTC, "debasement trade" is still in full swing, and the majority of the liquidity hose is in the future. Every asset is at or near ATH and we're seeing BTC drop below 200d MA.

No sir, I struggle to see this at a long term move until its proven out for a longer amount of time. Something smells off. Just feels though, no arguing with TA pasted above

EDIT - This kinda sums it up. No guarantees it plays out this way, but its my base case. $2T asset vs $30T asset. They'll move differently

No reason to sell long term holds as of yet, but I really don’t like this Bitcoin price action. It keeps repeatedly retesting the 200DMA. All the recent pops to 115-116k keep getting sold into while the stock market has pushed constant ATHs during the same period. It’s not showing any relative strength whatsoever.

As I just open my X feed:

While I'd say its wise to be prepared for a prolonged downturn if we do end up following the 4-year cycle and the bear is coming, I would be quite surprised if we've already hit ATH and we're preparing to slide for a prolonged period. Big money is involved in BTC now, like it or not, and that means they're going to be playing their games. Also potential that there are underlying plumbing issues with traditional markets (constantly being talked about by Jamie Dimon and his ilk) and Bitcoin is just the premiere asset for tracking liquidity issues. We're definitely in uncharted water with the asset at this point so I guess we'll see how it plays out.

Short term is a toss-up but nothing fundamentally has changed with Bitcoin. The noise around the Knots/Core issue and threats of softforks will, I believe, end up being a nothingburger long term but its definitely having a price effect as well. Not sure how many here are aware of it, but in a nutshell Bitcoin Core just released version 30 that allows for significantly larger non-monetary data to be added to the blockchain and its causing a lot of turmoil. OP_RETURN now being big enough to host images and that opening up node-runners to the potential of hosting illegal content, since you can't remove things from the blockchain once added. Some amount of the price movement is likely related to this as people are quite spooked about it. I believe that your Blackrocks etc are behind this, essentially narrative attack, feel free to go look at their ToS regarding chain splits if you can't see why they'd do that.

In the end I suspect that a third option will arise and end up being the reference implementation and some specific bad actors will be removed from their roles controlling commits etc.

Despite BTC's strides towards recognition as an inflation hedge, it still fundamentally behaves closer to a Nasdaq listing than it does to gold. In that regard, it continues to function as something of a leading indicator of tech pain (and gain).