Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies
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Tmac
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Khane
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Flobee
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Yea it sure is. Only way out is to anesthetize bondholders
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Flobee
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The theory is pretty simple, as time goes on the mining issuance halves every 4 years and that issuance becomes a smaller and smaller percentage of available supply. Since price is set at the margins and the amount of Bitcoin fed into the market by "forced sellers" via mining decreases every halving its just logical that eventually the 4 year cycle will stop. Its generally believed that Bitcoin price would follow liquidity cycles at that point rather than the halving cycle.
This is purely about USD price and until proven out, is just a theory. Its probably wise to act as if the 4 year cycle is still intact until proven otherwise but its not unreasonable given the current environment that it won't apply this time, at least to the same degree.
Something like 5% of the total Bitcoin supply has changed hands over the past 2 months or so and we're still at ~$90k, the average cost basis of all coins is right around this price range now. Its probably for the first time not legally risky to sell off large amounts of Bitcoin for OG's that hold billions worth, they have legal clarity that they won't have the IRS hounding them for disclosing their positions.
8 out of 10 of the largest banks in America are offering Bitcoin custody and products. For better or for worse the asset is moving into a different category than the past.
Furry
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Pretty sure I mentioned a long time ago on here that inevitably the halving cycle will become a liability. It requires a logarithmic expansion of computing power and value to maintain stability. Both have apparently ceased to be true, which ultimately will lead to miners eating losses and the act becoming less appealing over time. It'll be interesting to see what is done to dealt with that, because enough of the book-keeping being degraded and eventually BTC could be vulnerable to forking attacks from big enough actors.
Flobee
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The underlying assumption is that mining will not remain economical, or desirable for non-economic purposes. Couple reasons I don't think this will be an issue, granted they do require some assumptions so we'll see.
1. Cheap or otherwise unusable energy sources will remain economical for far longer than your average mining operation. Think stranded hydro power, "volcano" energy capture, etc.
2. If energy becomes dramatically cheaper and/or Bitcoin price increases dramatically this math changes
3. Nation level mining can and likely will continue even when hashprice is undesirable, they're not going to be price sensitive.
4. Assuming Bitcoin becomes valuable and integral to the monetary system mining will be subsidized regardless of profitability.
I'm not saying these are desirable outcomes, just a couple different things that could or are currently playing out that keep me from being too concerned about miner profitability over time. There are also other factors that prevent forking being desirable as well for completely different reasons more in line with incentives for the entity controlling that much hash power. Its a pretty complicated topic and not one I can or will do justice via forum posts.
Flobee
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This guy is a goofball, but this Youtube channel is pretty good at boiling down whatever Bitcoin twitter etc is talking about in a given week and putting into a 20-30 minute video. Stupid, smart, not the point... its whatever is being discussed in those circles generally. Not a bad place to get an idea of whats going on in Bitcoin without spending all your time on social media. That being said this particular video is right on target for the recent conversations about Bitcoin and what could possibly be on the horizon. Not saying they're right, just providing some context for WHY folks in this space are saying and doing the things they are.
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Blazin
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Video comes off like the meme,
Bitcoiners in 2018: We are outside the system man, going to build a new financial world outside of Blackrock and JP MOrgan!
Bitcoiners in 2025: Man I'm so pumped Blackrock and JP Morgan are taking over bitcoin, this is so bullish for us! Did you hear the good news? The govt is getting on board man.
Bitcoiners in 2018: We are outside the system man, going to build a new financial world outside of Blackrock and JP MOrgan!
Bitcoiners in 2025: Man I'm so pumped Blackrock and JP Morgan are taking over bitcoin, this is so bullish for us! Did you hear the good news? The govt is getting on board man.
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Tmac
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This isn't an accurate representation imo.
Institutions joining BTC has always a bullish talking point and one the maxi's always pointed to as validation. So, of course when it happens they're going to say, "See guys! We told you!" Because they did.
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Kirun
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The whole "major banks are pivoting to Bitcoin" narrative sounds exciting, but it's being wildly oversold. Banks offering custody, ETFs, or exposure to BTC isn't the same thing as Bitcoin becoming part of the global monetary system. That's like saying Fidelity selling gold ETFs means the dollar is collapsing and being replaced. It just means they found another product to collect fees on.
Institutions buying or offering BTC services doesn't "validate" Bitcoin's monetary thesis, it just means there's demand for another speculative asset. If anything, it proves the opposite of what the video claims - Bitcoin now sits inside the regulatory perimeter, under custodial control, subject to compliance, reporting, and institutional liquidity cycles. It's absorption, not sovereignty.
And let's be honest, banks don't adopt things because they’re about to be replaced by them. They adopt things because they see a revenue stream. If Bitcoin ever actually threatened monetary policy, capital controls, or sovereign settlement, those same institutions would be forced out of it overnight. They're permissioned entities.
So sure, institutions getting involved might help price discovery in bull markets. But institutional interest doesn't make Bitcoin the future of money. It just means Wall Street figured out how to profit from Bitcoin without believing any of the ideology behind it.
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Khane
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