Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies
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Flobee
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On the topic of Bitcoin changing how the monetary system will function moving forward and the role MSTR could be playing in it:
I'm not entirely convinced but I don't see this narrative getting the attention it deserves. Perhaps unwise to treat as the base-case, but it should certainly be on your radar if you're a regular in this thread. We continue seeing more little details dribble out that, IMO increase the likelihood that Bitcoin plays a massive role in the upcoming monetary regime change.
I'm not entirely convinced but I don't see this narrative getting the attention it deserves. Perhaps unwise to treat as the base-case, but it should certainly be on your radar if you're a regular in this thread. We continue seeing more little details dribble out that, IMO increase the likelihood that Bitcoin plays a massive role in the upcoming monetary regime change.
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Blazin
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fucking nonsense. Tried to listen, keep an open mind, see what people are saying...It's just so stupid I can't do it.
Not like, "Oh I see it different and disagree" but "The fuq are you talking about?" Seriously low IQ shit. I appreciate it though, always something to be learned. We need more pain.
Not like, "Oh I see it different and disagree" but "The fuq are you talking about?" Seriously low IQ shit. I appreciate it though, always something to be learned. We need more pain.
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Flobee
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I think this is a rational response if you reject the premise that the relationship between Bitcoin and USD is following Gresham's Law. In other words that Bitcoin is being hoarded and the dollar will continue to debase against Bitcoin as the "weaker" currency is used and the "stronger" is held. If you don't hold that position then its absolute nonsense for sure. Maybe there are other things that would make it nonsensical, but I believe this is the main one.
If the above is accepted then Bitcoin as monetary collateral for trade and transaction rails for international trade makes more sense at least. I also think that the description of how the current banking system creates "synthetic" collateral is accurate and has warped our view of how financial markets should work.
Blazin
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Was writing up a breakdown of the flawed thinking, sentence after sentence but it feels like a waste of time. Your jumping to the overall thesis, I can't get past the speaker has no idea what they are talking about. It would be like me talking about programming, I know enough to talk about it a little but any professional watching me flop around would know it in a heartbeat I don't have a fucking clue what I'm doing. I apologize I shouldn't have commented if I don't want to spend the time to explain my reaction, its just tiresome.
Just be careful putting too much weight on carnival barkers trying to sell you.
Just be careful putting too much weight on carnival barkers trying to sell you.
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Flobee
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Blazin
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And as a general aside, if you are still in MSTR which I believe you are. I'd be spending all my time listening and studying people who disagree with that position and zero on those who do. It's of no value to try to reinforce an already held idea, you're building a moat that could block your escape.
When entering a position you should write down if needed a list of here is why I'm doing this. If results vary from your thesis then you should move back to neutral not try to find a new list of reasons. That dynamic causes people to lose money more than it ever helps. Its reasonable to at times have the emotion of maybe I need more conviction and this guy will help me from paper handsing a good trade. I would just say to that likely means you entered then more based on a feeling rather than quantifiable things.
For example if price above moving averages and all pointing up (bullish momentum) was on the reason chart, we don't need to watch videos to see if we need to diamond hands. Is it still true yes or no. When we enter a trade because "I think I might get rich" we then are more vulnerable to needing outside influence to help keep us in the position contrary to quantifiable evidence in front of us.
When entering a position you should write down if needed a list of here is why I'm doing this. If results vary from your thesis then you should move back to neutral not try to find a new list of reasons. That dynamic causes people to lose money more than it ever helps. Its reasonable to at times have the emotion of maybe I need more conviction and this guy will help me from paper handsing a good trade. I would just say to that likely means you entered then more based on a feeling rather than quantifiable things.
For example if price above moving averages and all pointing up (bullish momentum) was on the reason chart, we don't need to watch videos to see if we need to diamond hands. Is it still true yes or no. When we enter a trade because "I think I might get rich" we then are more vulnerable to needing outside influence to help keep us in the position contrary to quantifiable evidence in front of us.
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Flobee
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I wrote out a explanation of my personal situation and positions, but honestly I don't care to overshare on the forum. You're giving good advice and you're far more credible and experienced than I am.
I'm not a trader. MSTR holds 650k BTC and I'm quite comfortable holding them long term. Is buying Bitcoin directly better? Yea 100%. Is buying FBTC better? Yea... maybe I guess we'll see. I'm down like 10% on my cost basis for MSTR so I don't think I'll be going anywhere. If you bought in at $500 per share then that's a bit different. I know a lot of "crypto" people or traders in general talk about "diamond" or "paper" hands, its a meme, etc etc. I'm not that, I own Bitcoin and some related products because I think it changes the monetary system. I think it has a real chance to squeeze a lot of the fraud out of the system and move us back to something more honest and real.
I'm not holding because its "a good trade", I'm here for the revolution. My position is binary. I'll either win or lose based on whether or not I'm correct. I'm not saying thats smart, its just the way it is for me. Most will roll they're eyes and think I'm retarded, but I've put a lot of time and effort into solidifying this world view, and its completely unreasonable for me to expect people without that context to understand. I'm clearly willing to be the dumbest guy in the room.
To be fair I'm a pretty contrarian person so its not uncommon for me to do something the wrong way multiple times before I try it the conventional way. I have a whole philosophy on that approach that maybe it would be fun to talk about if we were sitting down in person or something but I digress.
I guess to sum it up, I respect you, I respect your opinion. If someone were to ask me who's example to follow between us I would point them toward you 9/10 times. I'm glad you participate in this thread. Because of that I don't take any offense you disagree, even vehemently, with something I post and I think the thread is only better for you taking the time to do so.
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Blazin
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Nothing wrong with that, you could hold a position where the list simply says "Because I want to" Managing trades and battling emotions is often a challenge for all of us, at times it's easy because we make a decision from a different framework. Saying "I'm willing to be wrong" is in itself a reasoned position. Always with the caveat of it being true, we do sometimes say this at tops then we learn our conviction was somewhat less than we perceived. I think it's fine on the fringes of our framework to have risks that we simply take because we'd rather participate on the possibility of it being right than not have participated. Thanks for the kind words.
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Synj
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Rangoth
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to Blazin’s point this your reason, and honestly it may end up being correct. I don’t follow the movement close enough, I’m really only aware on a macro level, but no matter how it shakes out the evidence seems to indicate BTC is not “going away” so it’s a matter of where it falls to rest. Is it like backed form of collateral, does it become a currency, is it the global unit for trade instead of the dollar? I’m way to uneducated on it all to say but it’s clear to me that some portion of my long term investment should sit in it for now.
however if your premise is true, we should basically be all in, I have not turned that corner yet but I probably have 15-20% of my long term is some variation of BTC/crypto(count actual BTC, etfs, fbtc, bito, etc). Since purchase they are beating everything else I have…..question is will that always be true.
Synj
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I have ~6% of my portfolio in IBIT and 2.5/1.5% in BTCI/BLOX.
Feels like decent exposure but I'll be adding another 5% in the next year in a 60/40 allocation in February (selling some RSUs when they vest). 15% feels like the right place for me. Anything else and I get nervous even though I have a fairly strong conviction. If BTC 10x's over the next 10 years like people think it could, then I'm set. If it dumps 50% over the next 10 years, it stings but I'm still good.
I have 8 years until 59.5 but I honestly think I'll keep working until I'm 62-65 because I like what I do, and the extra income just helps, so I'm just happy to have some BTC to hold for the next 8-10 years and I like the income from the BTCI/BLOX in the meantime.
Synj
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As someone that holds actual gold and silver, I get it. However, most of my funds are held up in a Rollover IRA and ETF was really my only option for a meaningful allocation. I’ll be selling company RSUs in February which will give me a chance to add some actual BTC.
Divorce really fucked my liquidity but I’m doing the best I can!
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