Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies

Crypto has never really left speculative asset territory.

There's a huge pivot to AI right now, and that's acting like a huge vacuum, sucking up all the speculative money- a lot of which was previously going to crypto.

Add to that the inflation/interest rate issues, which have dried up a lot of liquidity and you've basically got a perfect storm for a crypto downturn.

TBH BTC is showing amazing resilience, considering. But it's no surprise that the non-BTC stuff is getting killed.

What's interesting to me is that nothing about the AI pivot actually invalidates the premise behind crypto. If anything, it opens up additional use cases. There's potential for a really symbiotic relationship there.

So I fully expect crypto to come roaring back in a big way.

Every time I see anyone talking about BTC price fluctuations, it rips the mask off all the statements they make about it being a revolutionary currency or whatever nonsense they spout (no offense, Flobee ). People are in BTC to make money as a speculative asset. Period.

If there wasn't a prospect of it shooting well above $100k again in the future, no one would own them outside of black market illegal shit where it gives a better sense of anonymity.

There's nothing wrong with that. I just wish they'd be honest.

Gravel said:

Every time I see anyone talking about BTC price fluctuations, it rips the mask off all the statements they make about it being a revolutionary currency or whatever nonsense they spout (no offense, Flobee ). People are in BTC to make money as a speculative asset. Period.

If there wasn't a prospect of it shooting well above $100k again in the future, no one would own them outside of black market illegal shit where it gives a better sense of anonymity.

There's nothing wrong with that. I just wish they'd be honest.

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Most people are in the trade for sure. Doesn't change what the technology actually is and does. I would argue people that actually understand this are just buying in times like this

Gravel said:

Every time I see anyone talking about BTC price fluctuations, it rips the mask off all the statements they make about it being a revolutionary currency or whatever nonsense they spout (no offense, Flobee ). People are in BTC to make money as a speculative asset. Period.

If there wasn't a prospect of it shooting well above $100k again in the future, no one would own them outside of black market illegal shit where it gives a better sense of anonymity.

There's nothing wrong with that. I just wish they'd be honest.

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An especially important observation when it was touted as "digital gold" / "inflation hedge" and we had the most ripping inflation in 40 years, yet here we are back to the 60k's.

It behaved purely as a risk on chase for a while, but even that narrative has changed. AI tech / infrastructure is the new shiny and Bitcoin is being left out to dry.

Jysin said:

An especially important observation when it was touted as "digital gold" / "inflation hedge" and we had the most ripping inflation in 40 years, yet here we are back to the 60k's.

It behaved purely as a risk on chase for a while, but even that narrative has changed. AI tech / infrastructure is the new shiny and Bitcoin is being left out to dry.

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Inflation started in 2020 when they printed massively. BTC was sub 10k at that point. It just moved first. Don't get overly distracted by dorks and their twitter narratives. The coin is doing its thing

Crypto in a free fall right now. Tom Lee and Saylor are probably starting to feel the heat.

Still doing small weekly DCAs as we drop though.

I took a good size buy around 65k. I don't think we go much below the 200wma so ~61k. I'm no chart expert though just feeling a bit bottom-y to me

I wouldnt dare buy in until this resolves higher. The risk of Saylor getting blown out (forced sales etc), I dont want to be holding those bags.

Jysin said:

I wouldnt dare buy in until this resolves higher. The risk of Saylor getting blown out (forced sales etc), I dont want to be holding those bags.

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I haven't seen a good explanation for the scenario that makes him a forced seller? As long as he can make dividend payments on the premium stock he should be fine to wait it out. Even after recent buybacks i think he still has ~6 months of cash reserves. I admittedly don't understand all the traditional finance nuance so maybe there is something I'm missing. Also worth noting that the preferred dividends can be paused anytime they want. Granted that would likely be a disaster for them, but still worth noting. I'm actually not totally against the idea that MSTR could blow up, I just haven't seen a good argument for it that holds up to scrutiny when one actually understands the structure of what they've built.

I don’t follow it too closely either, but I know he did have to sell some BTC recently to cover(or prepare to cover?) those dividends. But generally yes, he could just sit on it all until it recovers. I think he may also have some more traditional style loans or leverage from when he was accumulating, which also could be called as lenders “bank run” on him to get paid. Last one out would get nothing…..again all in theory

Rangoth said:

I don’t follow it too closely either, but I know he did have to sell some BTC recently to cover(or prepare to cover?) those dividends. But generally yes, he could just sit on it all until it recovers. I think he may also have some more traditional style loans or leverage from when he was accumulating, which also could be called as lenders “bank run” on him to get paid. Last one out would get nothing…..again all in theory

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He sold 32 Bitcoin. That was specifically to check a box for SP500 addition as they were flagging MSTR as not having assets because the Bitcoin liquidity was being questioned. He sold to prove its liquid is my read. I wouldn't fuss too much over this and it certainly wasn't to cover premiums. You can look here: https://www.strategy.com/ they're sitting on $900m cash right now with annual dividend being $1.7b so about 6 months.

EDIT: I think you're right via the traditional loans, they were 0% loans with convertibility. The recent "buyback" that cut their cash pool in half was buying back that debt early. I'm not sure what % of that debt they were buying back though

For a company that does not actually make money 900M in cash with annual expenses of 1.7B doesn’t really give me a warm and fuzzy feeling. He needs to sell BTC or issue common MSTR shares to fund that. Am I missing something?

Years ago I could understand investing in something like MSTR to gain BTC exposure because BTC was difficult to buy/sell/trade and the platforms to do so were new and relatively insecure (with many being outright scams). But now? I don't see a reason to not just buy BTC if you want exposure. So where does that leave MSTR?

Khane said:

Years ago I could understand investing in something like MSTR to gain BTC exposure because BTC was difficult to buy/sell/trade and the platforms to do so were new and relatively insecure (with many being outright scams). But now? I don't see a reason to not just buy BTC if you want exposure. So where does that leave MSTR?

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Totally agree, buying MSTR is needlessly risky if what you're looking for is BTC exposure. MSTR is doing something completely different (They're calling it digital credit) with essentially creating USD denominated debt to buy a superior asset. There are a lot of complications involved, but that's the simple version. You buy MSTR to long the concept of digital credit and own a piece of the largest BTC treasury in the world.

If they're right they're gunna essentially be the largest bank on the planet. The overall idea behind MSTR and the SBR Trump is pushing is, in my view, to move banking bank to a reserved system instead of the current debt based system we have now. USD becomes backed by assets instead of debt. My conspiracy is that MSTR is part of this. Prob not a bad hold if it works out that way.

EDIT: Thats what the stablecoin push is about, thats what the sovereign wealth fund is about, thats why they moved from LIBOR to SOFR. US wants to control its own currency again instead of letting Eurodollar run things. All requirements if you're moving manufacturing back stateside, you need to change the relationship of the USD to the rest of the world

Flobee said:

He sold 32 Bitcoin. That was specifically to check a box for SP500 addition as they were flagging MSTR as not having assets because the Bitcoin liquidity was being questioned. He sold to prove its liquid is my read. I wouldn't fuss too much over this and it certainly wasn't to cover premiums. You can look here: https://www.strategy.com/ they're sitting on $900m cash right now with annual dividend being $1.7b so about 6 months.

EDIT: I think you're right via the traditional loans, they were 0% loans with convertibility. The recent "buyback" that cut their cash pool in half was buying back that debt early. I'm not sure what % of that debt they were buying back though

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So… you’re saying… he was forced… to sell?