Investing General Discussion

Jysin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Further $TGT interview today:

07:01 [TGT] CEO: From freight standpoint things have changed substantially (worse) from just 13 weeks ago, much more than we anticipated - CNBC
- Inventory issue has added additional complexity across the board, expect issue to moderate over course of year
- Seeing definite shift in how consumers are shopping (seeing some shift away from some discretionary bigger balkier items likes TVs and bikes)
- Prices at retail have increased less than cost
- 13 weeks ago we have a very different outlook for FY22 and it is on us to adjust
 

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Also things are a lot different when the government hasn't forced all your competitors to close.

And you market tranny underwear to kids (although I know that hasn't impacted these previous quarter numbers).
 

Sanrith Descartes

Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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The risk appetite is so low right now that any negative is crushing. 25% of their market cap vaporized.
 

Zog

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Looks awful. Were headed for new lower lows without a miracle to save this sinking ship.

1652884095770.png


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Jysin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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10:30 *(US) DOE CRUDE: -3.4M V +1.5ME; GASOLINE: -4.8M V -1ME

Big petroleum numbers misses.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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At the risk of sounding like a retard, can you decipher this for me? What does this mean?
Tldr: our existing crude and gasoline stockpiles are being depleted faster than the gubmint thought they would. Are you old enough to Remember the Carter years and lines at gas stations? If not, welcome to 1977.
 
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Borzak

Bronze Baron of the Realm
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Tldr: our existing crude and gasoline stockpiles are being depleted faster than the gubmint thought they would. Are you old enough to Remember the Carter years and lines at gas stations? If not, welcome to 1977.

Shipping some overseas. Some refiners having difficulty getting what they need that's needed to add to diesel as well now. I haven't looked this morning but normally there's a bit of seperation in energy stocks of large companies that refine like XOM and others and the smaller oil services companies like drillers and the companies that support them. Of course both ends nee lots of diesel to produce.
 

Furry

WoW Office
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Tldr: our existing crude and gasoline stockpiles are being depleted faster than the gubmint thought they would. Are you old enough to Remember the Carter years and lines at gas stations? If not, welcome to 1977.
We making russia feel the pain, clap yourself on the back. A little higher prices are just part of winning.
 

Jysin

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10:30 *(US) DOE CRUDE: -3.4M V +1.5ME; GASOLINE: -4.8M V -1ME

Big petroleum numbers misses.

At the risk of sounding like a retard, can you decipher this for me? What does this mean?
Department of Energy (DOE) was expecting +1.5M barrels of crude, but had a -3.4M barrels draw actual.

Gasoline was expected drawdown of -1M but was an actual draw of -4.8M.

In other words, DOE was expecting a positive crude balance, but actually drew down negative about 3x expected positive inflow. Gasoline was drawn down nearly 5x as much as expected.

(Should further put pressure on fuel / energy costs, which then fuel more costs for businesses, which then gets pushed on to the consumer in the form of inflation)
 
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Jysin

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TGT (Target) getting crushed today. Walmart just continuing a nosedive from yesterday.

These are huge moves for any name, but especially true for retail behemoths. Their numbers and guidance are the real look at consumer spending and the true warning of recesson.

WMT today

wmt.jpg


WMT over 2 days:

wmt2.jpg
 
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OU Ariakas

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Department of Energy (DOE) was expecting +1.5M barrels of crude, but had a -3.4M barrels draw actual.

Gasoline was expected drawdown of -1M but was an actual draw of -4.8M.

In other words, DOE was expecting a positive crude balance, but actually drew down negative about 3x expected positive inflow. Gasoline was drawn down nearly 5x as much as expected.

(Should further put pressure on fuel / energy costs, which then fuel more costs for businesses, which then gets pushed on to the consumer in the form of inflation)

It is crazy how truly retarded the government is when it comes to market forecasting and preparation. Anyone who argues for socialsim or any federal government control of corporations needs to look at how fucking bad they are at adjusting for shortfalls in the basic necessities of modern civilization like oil, food, electricity, etc. Amazing.
 
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Borzak

Bronze Baron of the Realm
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I bet someone in power could have called up a number of execs at large oil companies and they would have a pretty good idea on what the market was looking like and what they were producing and capable of producing. Amazing how good poeple get at things when their income depends on it. Of course they couldn't forsee the oil lease changes.
 

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Let the power hour begin.

ps.. VIX is down to 25.5

I feel like the VIX is one of those things that holds even less meaningfulness than technical analysis. Just look at the last six months of VIX versus what the stock market did and tell me that this is a valuable tool anymore.

Or are VIX values of 16 a sign that 3% daily swings are normal?
Not that 25.5 was a great number or anything, but uh, yeah...

Today seems to prove my point that it's a worthless "metric" anymore (or the people buying VIX options are colossal fucking morons).