Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes

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Fairly surprising, and also not at all surprising, that a simple single human error could have caused that NYSE chaos earlier in the week.


PS. Had a pretty crap few weeks. Covid, followed up by an E.Coli infection, then finally well enough to travel to FL to visit family. Should be back at the trade desk and posting more in a couple weeks time.
E.Coli is the shit (pun intended).
 
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Mist

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Crypto is way up afterhours, >50% chance that tomorrow is a big green day for tech.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Put options for dummies. The ChatGPT version:
Blazin Blazin we should just chatbot the finance threads for all of the basic "what is" and "how does" questions :)

query: Explain in detail how put options work to a novice options trader.

Put options are financial contracts that give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying asset, such as a stock, at a specific price, called the strike price, within a certain period of time. This can be a useful tool for managing risk in an investment portfolio, and for investors who believe that the price of an asset will decrease in the future.

When you purchase a put option, you pay a premium to the option seller, which gives you the right to sell the underlying asset at the strike price. For example, if you buy a put option on a stock that has a strike price of $50, you have the right to sell that stock at $50, even if the market price of the stock drops below $50. The premium you pay is the cost of the option and it is non-refundable.

When the holder of a put option decides to exercise their right to sell the underlying asset at the strike price, they are essentially betting that the market price of the asset will fall below the strike price. If the market price of the asset falls below the strike price, the holder can buy the asset at the lower market price and sell it at the higher strike price, thereby making a profit. The profit is the difference between the strike price and the market price less the premium paid.

However, if the market price of the asset rises above the strike price, the holder will not exercise the option and the option will expire without any value. In this case, the holder loses the premium paid for the option.

It's important to note that options trading is a speculative and complex activity that may not be suitable for everyone. It's essential to understand the risks, and to have a good understanding of the underlying asset you are trading. It's also important to work with a licensed professional who can help you make informed decisions and understand the ins and outs of trading options.
 
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Mist

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Fairly surprising, and also not at all surprising, that a simple single human error could have caused that NYSE chaos earlier in the week.
So there's practically a law of redundant computing systems in that the most common failure of redundant/high availability computing systems is a failure of the redundancy mechanism itself, such as the case of the system being caught in an exception of being in active/active state for a system that's meant to be active/standby, for instance.

This happens in phone systems, elevator systems, flight control systems, industrial control systems, etc, all the time. The mechanism or logic that's supposed to cause automatic failover puts the system in a bad state needs to be manually overridden to get the system out of the invalid state.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Writing put options for dummies. The ChatGPT version:

Query: Explain in detail writing put options work to a novice options trader.

When writing a put option, also known as "selling a put," the seller, also known as the "writer," agrees to buy a specified number of shares of an underlying asset, such as a stock, at a specific price, called the strike price, within a certain period of time. In exchange for this agreement, the writer receives a premium from the buyer of the option.

Writing a put option can be a useful strategy for investors who believe that the price of an underlying asset will increase or remain stable in the future. For example, if an investor writes a put option on a stock with a strike price of $50, and the stock's market price is currently above $50, the investor expects the stock's price to stay above $50 or even increase in value. The investor will collect the premium as income and does not expect to ever have to buy the stock at $50.

However, if the market price of the stock falls below the strike price, the buyer of the option may choose to exercise their right to sell the stock to the writer at the strike price. In this case, the writer would then be obligated to buy the stock at the strike price, even if the market price is lower. This would result in a loss for the writer, equal to the difference between the strike price and the market price, minus the premium received.

It's important to note that options trading is a speculative and complex activity that may not be suitable for everyone. It's essential to understand the risks, and to have a good understanding of the underlying asset you are trading. It's also important to work with a licensed professional who can help you make informed decisions and understand the ins and outs of trading options.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Put writing strategies for the experienced options trader: The ChatGPT version:

Query: Explain in detail strategies for writing put options to an experienced options trader.

As an experienced options trader, you are likely aware that writing put options can be a useful strategy for generating income and potentially profiting from a stock you believe will increase in value or remain stable. Here are a few specific strategies you may consider when writing put options:
  1. Covered Put Writing: This strategy involves writing a put option on a stock that you already own. By doing so, you can generate additional income from the premium received, while also potentially protecting yourself against a decline in the stock's value. If the stock's price does fall below the strike price, you would be obligated to sell the stock at the strike price, but you would still have the premium received as a cushion against the loss.
  2. Naked Put Writing: This strategy involves writing a put option on a stock that you do not already own, with the hope that the stock's price will rise above the strike price, and the option will expire worthless. This strategy can be more risky than covered put writing, as if the stock's price falls below the strike price, you will be obligated to buy the stock at the strike price, which can result in significant losses.
  3. Put Spread: This strategy involves writing a put option with a low strike price, and buying a put option with a higher strike price. By selling the low strike price put option, you can generate income from the premium, while the high strike price put option limits your potential loss if the stock's price falls.
  4. Cash-Secured Put: This strategy involves writing a put option and setting aside enough cash to purchase the underlying stock if the option is exercised. This strategy allows you to collect the premium and gives you the opportunity to purchase the stock at a price that you believe is undervalued.
It's important to note that all options trading carries a certain level of risk, and it's crucial to have a good understanding of the underlying asset you are trading, as well as a well-defined risk management plan in place. It's also important to consult with a licensed professional and conduct your own research before making any trades.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Call writing strategies for the experienced options trader: The ChatGPT version:

Query: Explain in detail strategies for writing call options to an experienced options trader.

As an experienced options trader, you are likely aware that writing call options can be a useful strategy for generating income and potentially profiting from a stock you believe will decrease in value or remain stable. Here are a few specific strategies you may consider when writing call options:

  1. Covered Call Writing: This strategy involves writing a call option on a stock that you already own. By doing so, you can generate additional income from the premium received, while also potentially protecting yourself against a decline in the stock's value. If the stock's price does rise above the strike price, you would be obligated to sell the stock at the strike price, but you would still have the premium received as a cushion against the loss.
  2. Naked Call Writing: This strategy involves writing a call option on a stock that you do not own, with the hope that the stock's price will fall below the strike price, and the option will expire worthless. This strategy can be more risky than covered call writing, as if the stock's price rises above the strike price, you will be obligated to sell the stock at the strike price, which can result in significant losses.
  3. Call Spread: This strategy involves writing a call option with a low strike price, and buying a call option with a higher strike price. By selling the low strike price call option, you can generate income from the premium, while the high strike price call option limits your potential loss if the stock's price rises.
  4. Cash-Secured Call: This strategy involves writing a call option and setting aside enough cash to buy the underlying stock if the option is exercised. This strategy allows you to collect the premium and gives you the opportunity to sell the stock at a price that you believe is overvalued.
  5. Call Backspread: This strategy involves selling a call option at a strike price and buying multiple calls with a higher strike price. This strategy is used in a bullish market, with the expectation of a moderate rise in the underlying stock's price.
It's important to note that all options trading carries a certain level of risk, and it's crucial to have a good understanding of the underlying asset you are trading, as well as a well-defined risk management plan in place. It's also important to consult with a licensed professional and conduct your own research before making any trades.
 

SeanDoe1z1

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So there's practically a law of redundant computing systems in that the most common failure of redundant/high availability computing systems is a failure of the redundancy mechanism itself, such as the case of the system being caught in an exception of being in active/active state for a system that's meant to be active/standby, for instance.

This happens in phone systems, elevator systems, flight control systems, industrial control systems, etc, all the time. The mechanism or logic that's supposed to cause automatic failover puts the system in a bad state needs to be manually overridden to get the system out of the invalid state.

In my world of radio network infrastructure we will call this a zombie controller. It’s usually with expensive customers that have backups built into their backups usually in a geo separated location. The third or fourth level redundancy is tricked into becoming the main controller while the main control path comes back online but fails several exception checks and the system has two active controllers at once and RPs get fucked and the entire system goes to a reduced availability state.

it’s hard to plan for every little detail in the world. like a scenario where someone has a manual override set without knowing and then self causing a catastrophic failure (like turning off a core router in a given example). Easy to plan for one fuck up, hard to compound into a two or three fuckup factor.
 
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SeanDoe1z1

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Other day I was at a customer premise for some nonsense and as I got deeper into their system I’m starting to identify all these sites across their deployment are failing on their backup link. I gather logs and pinpoint everything to a single date…


a date they did a tech refresh on their CEN. Cable plugged into wrong port for over 3 months.

while there were other systems in place to account for this, if that failed, no bueno.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Other day I was at a customer premise for some nonsense and as I got deeper into their system I’m starting to identify all these sites across their deployment are failing on their backup link. I gather logs and pinpoint everything to a single date…


a date they did a tech refresh on their CEN. Cable plugged into wrong port for over 3 months.

while there were other systems in place to account for this, if that failed, no bueno.
Human error in one form or another was easily 90% of the root cause issue for every cable failure (fiber and copper) we had year in and year out. The amount of money we billed for damages to our network was staggering. Sadly, we couldn't bill for the human error of our own technicians.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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My portfolio hit a 9 month high this morning. Its not actually saying a lot since it fell off a cliff 12 months ago so its still a monumental sled to get back to the top, but baby steps.

My current holdings broke below the -5% threshold. I can almost see the surface of break-even. Woohoo!
 
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Aldarion

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Anyone read anything explaining the bizarre behavior of nat gas over the past month? Seems like at least half the time it moves in the opposite direction on related news. Pretty soon they're gonna be paying you to hold natgas. Just curious if anyone has read a discussion of this somewhere; I havent found anything to explain it.

(PS, I'm gonna preemptively say, anyone who says this was obvious ahead of time is gonna need to show me their KOLD shares or gtfo)
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Anyone read anything explaining the bizarre behavior of nat gas over the past month? Seems like at least half the time it moves in the opposite direction on related news. Pretty soon they're gonna be paying you to hold natgas. Just curious if anyone has read a discussion of this somewhere; I havent found anything to explain it.

(PS, I'm gonna preemptively say, anyone who says this was obvious ahead of time is gonna need to show me their KOLD shares or gtfo)
My only advice (as I learned my lesson years ago with commodities). If you are playing in the energy space, follow @chigrl on Twitter. She has forgotten more about the space than I will ever know.
 

Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

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Anyone read anything explaining the bizarre behavior of nat gas over the past month? Seems like at least half the time it moves in the opposite direction on related news. Pretty soon they're gonna be paying you to hold natgas. Just curious if anyone has read a discussion of this somewhere; I havent found anything to explain it.

(PS, I'm gonna preemptively say, anyone who says this was obvious ahead of time is gonna need to show me their KOLD shares or gtfo)
I'm with you. DCA'ing (falling knifing, if I'm honest) on the way down in anticipation of it going back up. It sucks for now, but the thing with energy is it can't go away/go to zero, right?

Right, Clown World??
:(