Investing General Discussion

still not clear if this will just be a check back to SPY ~430 as previous dips or if we really make a run at the original breakout around 422. If a more protracted decline don't look for red everyday. May be opportunity to buy dips and sell rips as we stair step our way down. We can all see the reasons for a more serious decline which of course is why I'm skeptical. Probably worth throwing the Jap Yen and Jap 10yr bond on your screen for this period.

Mist said:

I really don't know how Blazin calls these SPY exits so well, so consistently. We should all just listen to him. I was so close to pulling the trigger but I didn't know what to do with the money if I did. My backup plan is to just keep buying more when the price goes down.

As a small consolation, I did somewhat coincidentally sell my FEQIX from my Roth at the top, because it was up 30% but has otherwise underperformed.

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Please don't. I want to emphasize that I don't do it by guessing or predicting the future. I try to just watch for signals, people try this all the time and usually they just get too fixated on one thing, or maybe even three things. I do it by looking at lots of things and weighing them based on past experience both my own and the markets history to respond to what I'm seeing in the moment.

Many people try to fully quantify this to make a rules based system that can just do the process, and that is when you get to the heart of it, that part of it is an intuition that I have spent time trying to turn into something more objective than subjective to no avail

Too long to post and would get off subject to get into too much detail but I often feel "broken" in that my mind races all the time and I have trouble ever having much peace. I I have trouble filtering out info that I think other more baselines people might. I love baseball growing up and use to pitch but I struggled to stay focused, noticing too much. Other people, sounds, random thoughts, etc. Was always impressed to hear professional ball players talk about their ability to focus. Like a batter saying there is nothing in the world to them in that moment but that bat and ball. I am trash at that, but the markets work for me because it's complex and it's easier for me to see A and not forget about B,c,d....

Not sure if I rise to 140IQ lvl as you do but discernment is a strong pt and that coupled with macro thinking has certainly worked out for me in some facets of life and not so much in others. I have taken to farming/homesteading recently I think because hard work/labor probably one of the few things that quiets the mind at least a little.

Also man did I top tick XLE as well, but lets not forget I was wrong on TLT. Good example of me ignoring my own advice of "it would be better to wait for confirmation..."

I definitely don't want people following me but I'm super happy if I help someone hone their own trading in some fashion. To at least challenge how they think about it and make decisions.

Sanrith Descartes said:

IWM is a river of blood the last two weeks.

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This was probably my loudest signal that the short term trend was in trouble. We have to be careful to not let a few days of bad turn everyone too bearish. The bull case has weakened but way too early to put on bear party hats. IWM does not look good. Bull markets climb a wall of worry so it's challenging to differentiate between what seems like shaky ground to pay attention to vs ignore. My meter has been moving towards "pay attention" side of the scale