Investing General Discussion

Araysar

Loser Araysar

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Follow-up on this. MSFT breached the 100-DMA for 4 days and then bounced back. It dipped about 3% below this $400 range. It has now proceeded to recover and post a new 52-high in today's session. So just about 32 days. Buyers in that $390-400 range hit an 8-10% return in a month.


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I recommend buying NVDA. In a couple months, days, or hours I foresee it going up.

Whatever current price it is at, is a good entry point. It might go down after you buy it but here's why that's a GOOD THING (TM), something something PE.

I think you should all load up.

Full disclosure, I know 1 guy in Stock Pals who owns 2 shares and my kid has 1 share of NVDA in her custodial account.
 
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Palum

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Well swung NVDA for 16% waiting for pull back maybe reenter if we get some dumb pullback like Jerome says something stupid
 
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Rangoth

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Posting from iPad, sorry about formatting and shit text but attempting to have honest debate.

resident experts here, and my own history will tell me that I cannot “out market” the market. Blazin and others talk a lot about sentiment and how even if you think a company is doing great, if public(market) sentiment is shit then you’ll see that action priced In.

in my ‘conservative’ account(retirement, IRA) I am about 50% spy and various other safe plays, because when I fuck up my life it is all I have left and while I do ok, I am not that rich yet. Anyway I am noticing a massive trend in the put to call ratio of SPY. It’s also at an all time high……

how can I learn to tell if the put ratio is *because* of the all time high, and those that think it cannot go forever, vs a market sentiment that shit will hit the fan soon and turn bear? current volatility seems low and all other metrics seem to indicate we are headed to the stratasphere. what am I missing?


my real question: at what point do I notice the down trend and sell my SPY stake and buy in again at future date. I’m not talking about perfect market timing, I’m talking about being the guy who shaves 20% off each end just because I can watch the internet and discuss at places like FoH ;)
 
Zog

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The market stands on 1 leg of a 3 leg stool at any given time.

Macro, fundamentals, technicals.

what. how. when.

If the macro changes, the market looks to the fundamentals and then executes based on the technicals.

Looking at put/call ratio is skipping the first 2 steps and jumping right to the 3rd. You would probably have a better win/loss ratio flipping a coin.

A large amount of puts doesn't mean the stock price should or will go down unless the macro environment and the fundamentals support it. GME is a very recent example of this.

The ecb plans to cut rates first, as early as next month. The macro is actually pointing towards the dollar gaining strength in the next month, would you say stocks should go up if this is the case? Yet here we are blowing out ath in sp500 with the dollar soaring, bitcoin selling off, oil down and gold going through the roof.

This is the reason you'll never hope to achieve 100% wins. If you're a wall street god, at best you hope to be 60%, wins over a long period it gets extremely hard.

Buffets success is built on a few companies that over decades, had the fundamentals to go the distance. That is investing.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Rangoth said:
in my ‘conservative’ account(retirement, IRA) I am about 50% spy and various other safe plays, ……



my real question: at what point do I notice the down trend and sell my SPY stake and buy in again at future date. I’m not talking about perfect market timing, I’m talking about being the guy who shaves 20% off each end just because I can watch the internet and discuss at places like FoH ;)
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Market timing is generally considered a failed strategy. Because this is in your retirement account, just let it sit and ride out the ups and downs. Depending on your age, you could have many decades until retirement. While your concern is avoiding a part of a downturn, you will most likely also miss part of the recovery.

Just let it do it's thing and if it does drop, make a contribution if you can and buy on the weakness.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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April Durable Goods 0.7%, Exp. -0.8%
Durables ex transports 0.4%, Exp. 0.1%
Cap Goods orders nondef ex air 0.3%, Exp. 0.1%

And in what should be a surprise to no one...

March durables revised from 2.6% to 0.8%

March Cap goods nondef ex air revised from 0.0% to -0.3%
 
Foler

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Market timing is generally considered a failed strategy. Because this is in your retirement account, just let it sit and ride out the ups and downs. Depending on your age, you could have many decades until retirement. While your concern is avoiding a part of a downturn, you will most likely also miss part of the recovery.

Just let it do it's thing and if it does drop, make a contribution if you can and buy on the weakness.
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Just to add to this, you’ll probably want to cater your asset allocation to your age and life stage. I’m sure others can give recommendations on that if you ask. I’m mid 30s and single so I’m dumping into an sp500 index fund with good results.
 
Gravel

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Rangoth said:
Posting from iPad, sorry about formatting and shit text but attempting to have honest debate.

resident experts here, and my own history will tell me that I cannot “out market” the market. Blazin and others talk a lot about sentiment and how even if you think a company is doing great, if public(market) sentiment is shit then you’ll see that action priced In.

in my ‘conservative’ account(retirement, IRA) I am about 50% spy and various other safe plays, because when I fuck up my life it is all I have left and while I do ok, I am not that rich yet. Anyway I am noticing a massive trend in the put to call ratio of SPY. It’s also at an all time high……

how can I learn to tell if the put ratio is *because* of the all time high, and those that think it cannot go forever, vs a market sentiment that shit will hit the fan soon and turn bear? current volatility seems low and all other metrics seem to indicate we are headed to the stratasphere. what am I missing?


my real question: at what point do I notice the down trend and sell my SPY stake and buy in again at future date. I’m not talking about perfect market timing, I’m talking about being the guy who shaves 20% off each end just because I can watch the internet and discuss at places like FoH ;)
Click to expand...
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay insolvent.

Memorize that, and don't gamble with your retirement account.
 
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Araysar

Loser Araysar

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Gravel said:
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay insolvent.

Memorize that, and don't gamble with your retirement account.
Click to expand...

solvent, not insolvent. but yeah
 
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Araysar

Loser Araysar

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Araysar said:
I recommend buying NVDA. In a couple months, days, or hours I foresee it going up.

Whatever current price it is at, is a good entry point. It might go down after you buy it but here's why that's a GOOD THING (TM), something something PE.

I think you should all load up.

Full disclosure, I know 1 guy in Stock Pals who owns 2 shares and my kid has 1 share of NVDA in her custodial account.
Click to expand...


Hey did you all load up like I told you? 10% jump in share price

1716556450398.png





You too can be a financial genius like Sanrith Descartes Sanrith Descartes and me, its very easy.

Here's the handy dandy guide for that

1. Wait until there is a bull market
2. Pick an industry leader like UNH or MSFT
3. Predict that it will eventually go up (real risky bet in a bull market)
4. But also hedge your prediction that it might go down in "near term"
5. Always talk about long term to make risk meaningless because over a long enough time frame, almost everything goes up in some way
6. You'll pretty much be right almost every time. Come here and act like some boomer Warren Buffett.



Want to see me do it again?


I recommend buying META. In a couple months, days, or hours I foresee it going up.

Whatever current price it is at, is a good entry point. It might go down after you buy it but here's why that's a GOOD THING (TM), something something PE.

I think you should all load up.
 
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Araysar

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
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Araysar said:
Want to see me do it again?


I recommend buying META. In a couple months, days, or hours I foresee it going up.

Whatever current price it is at, is a good entry point. It might go down after you buy it but here's why that's a GOOD THING (TM), something something PE.

I think you should all load up.
Click to expand...

1716562381672.png



Did you like this parlor trick?


Want to see me do it again?
 
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Araysar

Loser Araysar

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Thread is awfully silent now after pissing and moaning by the likes of Tmac Tmac and others that I don't spoonfed them stock advice.

What, you didn't like those stock tips?
People out here acting like getting a 1% gain every day is JUST OH SO IMPOSSIBLE.

Sanrith out there giving shitty stock tips that give them 10% in 6 weeks. I'm giving out stock tips that give you 10% in a day.

So strange!
 
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Flobee

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Araysar said:
Thread is awfully silent now after pissing and moaning by the likes of Tmac Tmac and others that I don't spoonfed them stock advice.

What, you didn't like those stock tips?
People out here acting like getting a 1% gain every day is JUST OH SO IMPOSSIBLE.

Sanrith out there giving shitty stock tips that give them 10% in 6 weeks. I'm giving out stock tips that give you 10% in a day.

So strange!
Click to expand...
Don't you have an entire dedicated stocks thread to act like this in?
 
swayze22

swayze22

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Araysar said:
Thread is awfully silent now after pissing and moaning by the likes of Tmac Tmac and others that I don't spoonfed them stock advice.

What, you didn't like those stock tips?
People out here acting like getting a 1% gain every day is JUST OH SO IMPOSSIBLE.

Sanrith out there giving shitty stock tips that give them 10% in 6 weeks. I'm giving out stock tips that give you 10% in a day.

So strange!
Click to expand...
Strong misread of the room comrade
 
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