Investing General Discussion

Juvarisx

Juvarisx

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Jysin

Jysin

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Blazin said:
Buying S&P ($600k) at the close in mutual fund only retirement account. I don't think we hit bottom of this leg but this might be the low close and I gained enough alpha to not play with it any further. Side stepped about $40k in decline regardless of what it does from here, time to lock it in.
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Has your view changed on this position in the last few days' macro news events?

Sentiment is in the shitter and it seems a ton of bad news is baked in, but I can't help but think these tariffs are going to just come back on the consumer and drive inflation. A month from now we are right back into earnings season and I can't help but wonder how much of these pricing pressures are going to be talked about in the earnings calls / effect on forward guidance.
 
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Captain Suave

Captain Suave

Caesar si viveret, ad remum dareris.
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Jysin said:
how much of these pricing pressures are going to be talked about in the earnings calls / effect on forward guidance.
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FWIW I have clients in the forest products industry (paper, lumber, building products) and they're all shitting themselves.
 
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Tredge

Tredge

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Tirant said:
Thoughts on whether we can get 2 green days in a row? :trump:
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I dont think we hit bottom yet.
Signals and momentum say this is mid-slide—support at the next trend line might slow it, but won’t hold today.
Maybe by Friday. Will see how the next 24 hours look.

But don't listen to me, that's just what I am doing.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Jysin said:
Has your view changed on this position in the last few days' macro news events?

Sentiment is in the shitter and it seems a ton of bad news is baked in, but I can't help but think these tariffs are going to just come back on the consumer and drive inflation. A month from now we are right back into earnings season and I can't help but wonder how much of these pricing pressures are going to be talked about in the earnings calls / effect on forward guidance.
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No, sure there is chance we fall apart but I have to make the highest probability trade based on history which tells me to judge the next rally. I'm unlikely to do anything with that S&P money until I see how we handle a rally and where it rallies to. Flows should start improving next week. We might be in a larger down trend that I'm definitely open to which means I may be selling the next rally, that could be for a gain/loss or BE just don't know yet.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Comparison of this decline and last summer. That doesn't mean history repeats but good recent history to show how quickly things can change and to keep on open mind.
1741810185240.png
 
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Gravel

Gravel

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Fuck it. Just buy the dip. 100% of the time you're right 50% of the time.
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It's been said many times, but stocks are the one thing that go on sale and people bitch about it. If you're still accumulating, and not day trading (at least not options), this is a great month.
 
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Rangoth

Rangoth

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Blazin said:
Comparison of this decline and last summer. That doesn't mean history repeats but good recent history to show how quickly things can change and to keep on open mind.
View attachment 577763
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thanks for the drop comparison, interesting way to look at it. I have a bit more of the downtrend continue vibe based on that we blew through the 200d and didn’t in your earlier dip example. You don’t have it on that chart but I also show the 50 about to cross the 100 which didn’t happen before. As with anything it’s just my opinion but I’m seeing the indicators hint at a true bear market potentially beginning instead of dip/bounce thing.

in Hindsight of course I should have sold at some point for the buy in and I may still do that, but that’s a bolder move im not ready to make(I’m talking my long spy in retirement) I am however continuing to buy puts on it for may, which are all up or sold(rolled) down but not out. Even if I lose tht entire out position I’ve already rolled enough times to be profitable. I keep rolling it to a new at/near the money value on the same date Every time I’m up 5-10%
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Rangoth said:
thanks for the drop comparison, interesting way to look at it. I have a bit more of the downtrend continue vibe based on that we blew through the 200d and didn’t in your earlier dip example. You don’t have it on that chart but I also show the 50 about to cross the 100 which didn’t happen before. As with anything it’s just my opinion but I’m seeing the indicators hint at a true bear market potentially beginning instead of dip/bounce thing.

in Hindsight of course I should have sold at some point for the buy in and I may still do that, but that’s a bolder move im not ready to make(I’m talking my long spy in retirement) I am however continuing to buy puts on it for may, which are all up or sold(rolled) down but not out. Even if I lose tht entire out position I’ve already rolled enough times to be profitable. I keep rolling it to a new at/near the money value on the same date Every time I’m up 5-10%
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I can see further decline, but my hunch is irrelevant. The market will tell us, and it's what we should pay attention to.

Here is an actual bear market:
1741816763276.png


So even if the bearish outlook the market gave several opportunities to exit at more favorable prices. To capture sizable returns from point A to point B of a cyclical bull it's important to give the trend a chance. In my attach chart you can see the market for several months began to struggle with the 200d. If the market fails to rally to and then away from the 200d that is very big point of caution. We are now below it, how long we stay there is what matters.

In the next up leg I'll be watching first for the recapture of the 200d and then a break above and move away from it. If that doesn't happen then it becomes more prudent to take a more cautious wait and see stance. I'm not bullish/bearish I'm just saying we don't have enough info in hand today to make the call. We may in just a few weeks.

There are other things to look for during that rally. Defensive stocks should be weak, breadth should be strong, the vix getting crushed. That doesn't mean though the market doesnt spend a few days trying to recapture that level. Being long in a corrective leg never feels good it always feels like it can become more. The odds are in your favor that it doesn't. Over a career you'll make more money being patient and watching price action then trying to perfectly time it.

TLDR too much time around the 200d is bearish, time below the 200d is bearish. I'll be bearish when the price action is telling me to.
 
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Rangoth

Rangoth

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I think we are mostly saying the same thing, but you’re always a bit more eloquent in market terms. I agree we are not there yet and I’m ok with a bear market as there are still plenty of ways to make money.

my confidence level at the moment is limited to about 10-15k in SPY puts, so I’m not even close to betting strongly on it. It’s nice though as i keep rolling it down when it’s in the green.
 
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fris

fris

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Gravel said:
It's been said many times, but stocks are the one thing that go on sale and people bitch about it. If you're still accumulating, and not day trading (at least not options), this is a great month.
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My yearly bonus hits on a few weeks. Was planning on getting a paramotor. Now I might dunno if all in Berkshire Hathaway.
 
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Fucker

Fucker

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fris said:
My yearly bonus hits on a few weeks. Was planning on getting a paramotor. Now I might dunno if all in Berkshire Hathaway.
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Get the paramotor and gift your wife shares of Mutual of Omaha life insurance company. Best of both worlds.

Think outside the bun.
 
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Siliconemelons

Siliconemelons

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So what should poor normie do…

Pull out and wait, stick it into a dumb savings getting a few percent and just eat all gains as now loss from the past 2 years?

Or just leave it alone and maybe eventually it comes back? And yeah… even my retirements and mutual funds are all down bad… i am not talking about pulling out retirement or whatever. Just some stocks and stuff.
 
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