Investing General Discussion

Captain Suave · Mar 19, 2025

Sanrith Descartes said:
[Grok:]

LLMs aren’t perfect. They can hallucinate facts
...
Google and Bing thrive on the free, ad-driven model—billions of users, monetized through targeted ads tied to search and browsing habits. It’s a machine that’s worked for 20+ years, pulling in $224 billion for Google alone in 2023.

Well, at least it's honest. What's $14 billion here and there between friends?

(yes, I checked against Alphabet's earnings statements)

I don't see how anyone can trust these things for any purpose involving numbers.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 19, 2025

Captain Suave said:
Well, at least it's honest. What's $14 billion here and there between friends?

View attachment 578547
(yes, I checked against Alphabet's earnings statements)

I don't see how anyone can trust these things for any purpose involving numbers.

What I dont get is its programmed. How hard is it to program it to say "I dont have the answer to that math/financial question". I should ask it why.

Flobee · Mar 19, 2025

Gen-X's version of believing everything on Fox News is going to be blindly relying on AI for answers. Its a useful tool in a number of circumstances but citing it as factual is foolish. Especially so when one pastes its responses in an argument lol.

More on topic I suspect market bounces soonish purely based on global liquidity uptick.

Arden · Mar 19, 2025

Flobee said:
Gen-X's version of believing everything on Fox News is going to be blindly relying on AI for answers. Its a useful tool in a number of circumstances but citing it as factual is foolish. Especially so when one pastes its responses in an argument lol.

More on topic I suspect market bounces soonish purely based on global liquidity uptick.

Not sure anyone is suggesting that you should blindly rely on AI. You shouldn't blindy rely on anything- AI, TV, News, radio, books, conversations with people on the Internet.

AI is just a tool, and it happens to be really good (and fast) at aggregation info sources on the net and proving you with a succinct answer to your query.

If your AI is good, it will use typically reliable sources and provide you with citations so you can back check the facts it provides.

Being skeptical of ANY information source is wise these days, but automatically dismissing new tech just because it's new just makes you seem like a luddite.

Captain Suave · Mar 19, 2025

Sanrith Descartes said:
What I dont get is its programmed. How hard is it to program it to say "I dont have the answer to that math/financial question". I should ask it why.

My wife runs an AI department (though not building LLMs). She says the correct solution is to identify specific factual elements of output and check those against a database of sourced links derived from traditional search, or refer to rigorous calculation engines a la Wolfram Alpha. This are already such products available in enterprise settings, within narrow domains. It's not part of general purpose public-facing ChatGPT/Grok/etc. for reasons of cost, complexity, and scale of engineering. They don't plaster caveats everywhere because it sells better. (I think Perplexity is working in this direction. I haven't tried it.)

I still think it's a major product design fail to have released in this state without guardrails. It's going to badly degrade future confidence even when precise implementations are eventually available. It'll be like asking people to trust self-driving cars after they've been marketed as functional and yet predictably crash. "Trust us this time, really!"

Tmac · Mar 19, 2025

Sanrith Descartes said:
What I dont get is it’s programmed. How hard is it to program it to say "I dont have the answer to that math/financial question". I should ask it why.

That’s not how they work. They don’t actually know how to tell it to do that so directly. Their only option is to train bias into it.

There’s entire departments at universities that are studying how LLM’s work trying to reverse engineer their internals so they can tell it stuff.

I have a buddy who’s getting his PhD in this stuff and is on the same floor as the British equivalent of OpenAI. He talks about LLM’s in scary ways.

Jysin · Mar 19, 2025

Thanks dovish JPow

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 19, 2025

Lets see if the S&P can bust through the 200.

Blazin · Mar 19, 2025

Sanrith Descartes said:
Lets see if the S&P can bust through the 200.

not ready for that, need some calming consolidation below before the move up. Does it too soon and it will just get smacked down. End of week is what matters. We may get the close at the 200d and wake up monday to either break out or break down.

Anything possible, gamma flip just up overhead. If it does break above it we would get some crazy breadth thrusts multiple 80% up days , I just don't see how declining 20d and the 200d aren't going to act as resistance for a bit.

Jysin · Mar 19, 2025

Largest OpEx in history coming on Friday. I would wait for Monday to really get a sense of direction.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 19, 2025

Jysin said:
Largest OpEx in history coming on Friday. I would wait for Monday to really get a sense of direction.

i'm 90% invested at this point so I am mainly a passenger at this point no matter what happens.

Haus · Mar 19, 2025

Arden said:
Maybe, but he will realistically be close to 70 (or older) by the time something like that happens. That's not old in the grand scheme of things but it would be pretty old for such a dangerous/difficult flight.

Not saying it won't happen, just saying he's racing against the clock for sure.

I'm trying to find his original tweet on the topics but...

I believe Elon intimated that missions to Mars carrying Optimus androids would be first, and should happen in the next 2 years, then we have another window to wait until it's proper for more launches to Mars, so that if the Optimus androids can work on the surface or Mars and prep things the goal would be humans around 2031.

Ah, here we go. Elon's optimistic goals :

Captain Suave · Mar 19, 2025

Haus said:
I'm trying to find his original tweet on the topics but...

I believe Elon intimated that missions to Mars carrying Optimus androids would be first, and should happen in the next 2 years, then we have another window to wait until it's proper for more launches to Mars, so that if the Optimus androids can work on the surface or Mars and prep things the goal would be humans around 2031.

Ah, here we go. Elon's optimistic goals :

I've got a cousin at SpaceX and for whatever his opinion is worth he thinks that's crazy optimistic. More realistic is first missions in the 2030's with humans closer to 2040.

Lambourne · Mar 20, 2025

Back in 2015 (when Tim Urban's great article series came out) Musk said 2025 or 2027 for a human to step on Mars. If that slides to around 2030 I would still consider that a success. Might well have been never in our lifetime by the way space travel was going for a while. Only 6 people are still alive that have gone beyond low earth orbit, the youngest of them is 89 years old.

Putting a human on Mars in and of itself isn't the real revolution Musk has brought to spaceflight, it's the lowering of cost per kg to orbit by several orders of magnitude. This opens up all sorts of new opportunities for satellite based services and also the chance for ordinary people to travel to space (it still won't be cheap but expensive is better than not available).

This is a great article series, even 10 years after it came out. Not everything has gone to plan but a lot has.

How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars — Wait But Why

One of life’s great leaps may be just around the corner.

waitbutwhy.com

tugofpeace · Mar 20, 2025

Blazin said:
not ready for that, need some calming consolidation below before the move up. Does it too soon and it will just get smacked down. End of week is what matters. We may get the close at the 200d and wake up monday to either break out or break down.

Anything possible, gamma flip just up overhead. If it does break above it we would get some crazy breadth thrusts multiple 80% up days , I just don't see how declining 20d and the 200d aren't going to act as resistance for a bit.

Sorry. 80% up days?

Jysin · Mar 20, 2025

tugofpeace said:
Sorry. 80% up days?

He is referring to breadth. As in 80% names in the NYSE / NASDAQ trading green on a day. Opposite of this is when we have just a few names like the Mag7 dragging the indexes up, while most other names are in the red.

Today's breadth:

Blazin · Mar 20, 2025

tugofpeace said:
Sorry. 80% up days?

Advancing volume vs declining volume, also watch adv/dec issues

Blazin · Mar 20, 2025

I've been doing a sort of barbell approach to this correction. I have some shares just holding long, have 500 shares of QQQ that I'm attempting to flip if I get caught long so be it but if I can make a handful of flips it can really help in the long run. I just bought back some that I had sold yesterday that if we can get a nice ramp tomorrow in the morning I'll probably sell again.

With one day to go and triple witching at that, us finishing above the 200d this week seems unlikely. Think the best we can hope for is to be in striking distance and put in a green weekly candle . Bulls want to see a weekly close above 485 for QQQ what we don't want to see is a new low, price to watch there is 466, a close down near that level would certainly increase concern, sentiment is still shit

Jysin · Mar 21, 2025

Bloomberg reporting 4.5 Trillion in options expiring today.

Hugely skewed for negative gamma on the SPY.

Should be a fun day.

Jysin · Mar 21, 2025

Well, 4 Billion buy side MOC. No put side armageddon. Enjoy the weekend.

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