Investing General Discussion

Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
42,832
149,227
You just said you can't fix it, but then "let's not pass the mess to our children." What the fuck do you even mean? There's no choice but to fuck the next generations, since if we're not actually going to lower the deficit (which means not even attempting to lower the debt), it means as you said, dollars just become more and more worthless.
 
  • 1Truth!
Reactions: 1 user
Flobee

Flobee

Vyemm Raider
2,859
3,331
Gravel said:
You just said you can't fix it, but then "let's not pass the mess to our children." What the fuck do you even mean? There's no choice but to fuck the next generations, since if we're not actually going to lower the deficit (which means not even attempting to lower the debt), it means as you said, dollars just become more and more worthless.
Click to expand...
You rebase to a neutral reserve asset that can't be printed. I said the current USD, debt based system cant be fixed. I didn't say we're doomed, just that a new system is coming and it will come with some pain. US owes at least $37 trillion (more when all USD debt is accounted for) and if you accept that money is an abstracted form of time + enegy, that means that $37+ trillion worth of time and energy was stolen from the future. My point is let us pay for the "sins of our fathers" not our kids.

Fix the system now rather than kick the can. Rebase to real value that cant be printed and deal with the consequences.
 
Araysar

Loser Araysar

Log Wizard
<Gold Donor>
86,846
176,798
Flobee said:
IMO there is no cutting spending. The only way out of Triffin's dilemma is through. They will spend and 'grow' their way out of the deficit via a soft default. USD denominated assets will grow nominally but get absolutely smashed in real terms vs Gold/Bitcoin. In other words stonks go up but everyone gets poorer. Global trade will return to being backed by real resources and neutral reserve assets, capital controls will increase and foreign capital is and will continue to flee US markets as our debt devalues in real terms. This can only end in one way and if you're tracking what Trump / Bessent are saying and doing its quite clear what their goal is, a renegotiation of global trade aka a new financial world order.

We get upset at politicians for reckless spending justifiably, but fail to understand that as the Global reserve currency we MUST spend in order to provide dollars to the world, that is how the system is designed. If we don't spend the whole system collapses on itself. Growth in the money supply is required for a system built on our debt because debt IS money and that debt is required for global trade liquidity.

EDIT: Also strong disagree on passing this mess to our children. Lets take the pain now and leave them with something better.


You can't accurately evaluate the financial landscape with USD as your denominator
Click to expand...


Deep inside everyone knows this is true. Even if Republicans permanently got on same debt reduction page and reduced the national debt by $1T every year, you'd need almost 4 decades to pay it off and thats if both parties stuck to it (but we both know dems would blow it up every time).

Its not realistic, its never gonna happen.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Foler

Asshat Foler

Potato del Grande
<Gold Donor>
50,776
43,638
Flobee said:
IMO there is no cutting spending. The only way out of Triffin's dilemma is through. They will spend and 'grow' their way out of the deficit via a soft default. USD denominated assets will grow nominally but get absolutely smashed in real terms vs Gold/Bitcoin. In other words stonks go up but everyone gets poorer. Global trade will return to being backed by real resources and neutral reserve assets, capital controls will increase and foreign capital is and will continue to flee US markets as our debt devalues in real terms. This can only end in one way and if you're tracking what Trump / Bessent are saying and doing its quite clear what their goal is, a renegotiation of global trade aka a new financial world order.

We get upset at politicians for reckless spending justifiably, but fail to understand that as the Global reserve currency we MUST spend in order to provide dollars to the world, that is how the system is designed. If we don't spend the whole system collapses on itself. Growth in the money supply is required for a system built on our debt because debt IS money and that debt is required for global trade liquidity.

EDIT: Also strong disagree on passing this mess to our children. Lets take the pain now and leave them with something better.


You can't accurately evaluate the financial landscape with USD as your denominator
Click to expand...

Blazin Blazin can you weigh in on this
 
Rangoth

Rangoth

Vyemm Raider
2,057
2,259
Foler said:
So we’re kind of fucked then if I’m reading the room right? Hopefully we’ll all be dead before then…
Click to expand...

Somewhat the opposite if you play it right actually. Debt as this happens become cheaper and investments(on avg.) become more valuable. The only time it sucks if you are just sitting on a pile of dollars doing nothing. Is it healthy long term? Not at all, but it absolutely can be played well during a lifetime until the music stops.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Rangoth

Rangoth

Vyemm Raider
2,057
2,259
I know I know...never bet against musk. But the stock has been struggling in general even the last 6 months per chart below. Hit a low, bounced back a but has been slowly trending down the entire time. More bad news from EU sales so far this week and I believe they are due to report more inventory/sales reports later this week(is that right)? It breaks through the 100DMA it looks like nothing but air until 250 or so. Plus, like TSLA(cars or company or Elon) or not, the dude keeps tweeting and pissing off investors and owners. He just can't stop. The left hates him because he aligned with Trump and DOGE and all that. The right hates him because he turned on trump and wants to start a new political party. He just keep poisoning his old brand. My last puts made money and this feels like a good spot to dip back in but I'm not sold yet because we could just as easily bounce off that orange line for another 1-2 weeks of up.

I didn't do anything yet, but very tempting to buy 5k-10k in a touch OTM puts....maybe 290/285?

1751399405920.png
 
Lightning Lord Rule

Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

Lightning Fast
<Charitable Administrator>
12,114
65,832
Blazin said:
Why? Has the 90+% the dollar has deflated already been a problem?
Click to expand...
At what point do you think the level of inflation breaks things beyond repair?

As in, say we've had X amount of inflation in the last 15 years. If we get 2X, 3X, or 4X (or more) that inflation over the next 15 years, would that be enough to break things? Where do you think the threshold might be?


I'm just thinking of the 'hyperinflation' case that some of the prognosticators out there think might be on the horizon within the next 10 years.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Cad

Cad

scientia potentia est
<Bronze Donator>
27,768
59,266
Lightning Lord Rule said:
At what point do you think the level of inflation breaks things beyond repair?

As in, say we've had X amount of inflation in the last 15 years. If we get 2X, 3X, or 4X (or more) that inflation over the next 15 years, would that be enough to break things? Where do you think the threshold might be?


I'm just thinking of the 'hyperinflation' case that some of the prognosticators out there think might be on the horizon within the next 10 years.
Click to expand...
Whatever level it is or has been, it's a fraction of what happened in the 70's and 80's, and we came through that?

Inflation surged in 2021 and 2022, reaching a high of 9.1% in June 2022, the highest since 1981, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). By December 2022, it was 6.5%, and it declined to 3.4% by December 2023 and 2.9% by December 2024. As of May 2025, the CPI inflation rate was 2.4%, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 2.8%.

The 1970s saw sustained high inflation, with peaks of 11.0% in 1974 and 13.5% in 1980 (CPI-based). The early 1980s also saw elevated rates, with inflation hitting 10.3% in 1981 before declining sharply to 3.2% by 1983 under aggressive monetary tightening. Inflation was higher (up to 13.5% in 1980) and more persistent, with elevated rates throughout much of the 1970s and early 1980s.
 
Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
7,456
37,431
Lightning Lord Rule said:
At what point do you think the level of inflation breaks things beyond repair?

As in, say we've had X amount of inflation in the last 15 years. If we get 2X, 3X, or 4X (or more) that inflation over the next 15 years, would that be enough to break things? Where do you think the threshold might be?


I'm just thinking of the 'hyperinflation' case that some of the prognosticators out there think might be on the horizon within the next 10 years.
Click to expand...
anything sustained over 5% will escalate and spiral us to the end. I think they can keep this ship afloat with for longer moving LT inflation up a point or two. However, spending still has to stop growing as a % of GDP
 
  • 3Like
Reactions: 2 users
OU Ariakas

OU Ariakas

Diet Dr. Pepper Enjoyer
<Silver Donator>
8,049
24,461
Debt:GDP has to be lowered as the priority going forward. I understand that they want inflation so that they can inflate the debt away over time, but it doesn't work if they just keep borrowing more money at the newly inflated levels.
 
  • 1Truth!
Reactions: 1 user
Lightning Lord Rule

Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

Lightning Fast
<Charitable Administrator>
12,114
65,832
Cad said:
Whatever level it is or has been, it's a fraction of what happened in the 70's and 80's, and we came through that?

Inflation surged in 2021 and 2022, reaching a high of 9.1% in June 2022, the highest since 1981, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). By December 2022, it was 6.5%, and it declined to 3.4% by December 2023 and 2.9% by December 2024. As of May 2025, the CPI inflation rate was 2.4%, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 2.8%.

The 1970s saw sustained high inflation, with peaks of 11.0% in 1974 and 13.5% in 1980 (CPI-based). The early 1980s also saw elevated rates, with inflation hitting 10.3% in 1981 before declining sharply to 3.2% by 1983 under aggressive monetary tightening. Inflation was higher (up to 13.5% in 1980) and more persistent, with elevated rates throughout much of the 1970s and early 1980s.
Click to expand...
Gah, it's so hard to talk about this one in an apples to apples manner.

We know the official CPI and corresponding inflation numbers are cooked, or rather, don't match observed price increases of things that people care about like food, housing, energy, real estate, etc. So that needs to be untangled, if it's possible. Then you have to try to do the same thing for those numbers back in the day. THEN you have to realize that what's driving inflation isn't really things like Fed policy or interest rates or whatever, but no-brakes legislative spending on things like medicare and medicaid and our bloated MIC. Then you have to untangle those historical figures for those things. THEN you have to do that for all the various regions of the country to understand where things might be working and where things are generating a giant sucking sound.

You also have to do it in such a way that defeats the 'well, ackshually!' counters that are inevitable.

It's all an enormous undertaking, and you'll end up likely off or wrong no matter what you come up with.

Blazin said:
anything sustained over 5% will escalate and spiral us to the end. I think they can keep this ship afloat with for longer moving LT inflation up a point or two. However, spending still has to stop growing as a % of GDP
Click to expand...
That's probably as good a number as any for getting close. "If official inflation is sustained over 5% over a few years, we're done-zo." As that corresponds to gov spending increasing at +5%/yr, and the debt payments increasing by a lot more than that.

And the big one: STONKS GO WAAAAY UP, but money becomes worth a lot less and people without stonks or something besides cash get turbofucked.
 
Cad

Cad

scientia potentia est
<Bronze Donator>
27,768
59,266
Lightning Lord Rule said:
Gah, it's so hard to talk about this one in an apples to apples manner.

We know the official CPI and corresponding inflation numbers are cooked, or rather, don't match observed price increases of things that people care about like food, housing, energy, real estate, etc. So that needs to be untangled, if it's possible. Then you have to try to do the same thing for those numbers back in the day. THEN you have to realize that what's driving inflation isn't really things like Fed policy or interest rates or whatever, but no-brakes legislative spending on things like medicare and medicaid and our bloated MIC. Then you have to untangle those historical figures for those things. THEN you have to do that for all the various regions of the country to understand where things might be working and where things are generating a giant sucking sound.

You also have to do it in such a way that defeats the 'well, ackshually!' counters that are inevitable.

It's all an enormous undertaking, and you'll end up likely off or wrong no matter what you come up with.
Click to expand...
Okay, so lets just narrow it down a little bit. Are you saying the post-COVID inflation is worse than the 70's/80's inflation or no? Or are you saying it's impossible to know?
 
Lightning Lord Rule

Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

Lightning Fast
<Charitable Administrator>
12,114
65,832
Cad said:
Okay, so lets just narrow it down a little bit. Are you saying the post-COVID inflation is worse than the 70's/80's inflation or no? Or are you saying it's impossible to know?
Click to expand...
Impossible? No, just extremely difficult to pin down and likely based on arbitrary or anecdotal or (mis)interpreted evidence.

I do think the 70's/80's numbers are likely more correct than the COVID era numbers, but that's just an ass-pull. The fact they've changed the standards so many times of what constitutes inflation, recessions, unemployment, and immigration numbers -just to name a few- means that trying to make comparisons between eras is nearly impossible and almost certainly pointless.

(EDIT: let's call it this: the ROI on doing this exercise and finding correct numbers isn't worth the effort to know all this one way or the other.)


Which I think is why they've changed the standards over the last 50 years: obfuscation of the government's performance over time.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Cad

Cad

scientia potentia est
<Bronze Donator>
27,768
59,266
Lightning Lord Rule said:
Impossible? No, just extremely difficult to pin down and likely based on arbitrary or anecdotal or (mis)interpreted evidence.

I do think the 70's/80's numbers are likely more correct than the COVID era numbers, but that's just an ass-pull. The fact they've changed the standards so many times of what constitutes inflation, recessions, unemployment, and immigration numbers -just to name a few- means that trying to make comparisons between eras is nearly impossible and almost certainly pointless.

(EDIT: let's call it this: the ROI on doing this exercise and finding correct numbers isn't worth the effort to know all this one way or the other.)


Which I think is why they've changed the standards over the last 50 years: obfuscation of the government's performance over time.
Click to expand...
I'm asking whether you think, since you don't trust the numbers, whether you think the 70's/80's inflation was worse than post-covid.
 
Lightning Lord Rule

Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

Lightning Fast
<Charitable Administrator>
12,114
65,832
Cad said:
I'm asking whether you think, since you don't trust the numbers, whether you think the 70's/80's inflation was worse than post-covid.
Click to expand...
I don't know why it's valuable to compare the 2 eras, other than the accuracy of the numbers involved, since the 2 eras are totally different. The debt's different, the demographics are different, geopolitics is different, monetary policy goals are different, etc etc.

If you're asking me if I think that the fact we got through worse inflation 40 years ago means we'll get through equal or slightly better inflation (by rate) this time, I don't see how you can say that with confidence.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.