Investing General Discussion

Kithani

Blackwing Lair Raider
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I sure wouldn't be happy. A disenfranchised base is a dangerous thing, they might just rightfully so destroy your wealth with a vote and a stroke of a pen . This isn't the thread for it but wealth gaps are the stew in which communists are born. A strengthening middle class breeds free market capitalism. Inflation is theft by the wealthy from the labor class.

We should all be rooting for fiscal discipline and adherence to 2% long run inflation targets even if it causes short term pain to the capital class.
I am rooting for those things because I am middle class but I also feel like we’re pretty damn far away from the French Revolution in 2025 the phrase “let them eat Zebra cakes” actually does apply
 

Kithani

Blackwing Lair Raider
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Ironically, UNH holding green here in the carnage today.
I’m biased because I work in healthcare but the awful thing about UNH is the more successful that company becomes the more it’s an overall loss for the USA IMO. I guess not a bad hedge in a weird way lol
 

Haus

I am Big Balls!
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My company is having it's worst single day performance in over a year and a half today. Someone has most definitely stuck their dick in the mashed potatoes..

I'm thinking NVDA didn't outperform ENOUGH to keep that particular hype train rolling full steam and the result is Bears stepping in....
bearjesus1.jpeg

All hail Bear Jesus and his girthy red candles....
 
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Creslin

Trakanon Raider
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My only move so far today was -325 shares of fbtc +39 shares of spy. Really don’t like the correlation between them now and had a nice gain on fbtc of like 80% I wanted to protect.

that’s in a long term hold account I rarely sell anything without holding over a year.

the stock I don’t get today is WMT. Up huge on mild eps growth with a pe in the mid thirties. Can’t figure that one out.
 

Flobee

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I'm kind of surprised nobody here is referencing the fact that the Yen carry trade is actively collapsing right now, which I have to assume is a big part, or at least another domino, in what is going on with the market. Sub %1 rates for borrowing Yen appears to be coming to an end and that carry trade has been massive for a long time now. As those positions unwind it shouldn't be surprising that assets get sold off to cover it.

Couple references below if you're unaware. Personally I'm not very concerned about this pullback as it simply can't be sustained. They will print. It won't fix anything but they're still going to do it.



 
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Arden

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Personally I'm thinking of this less as an overall crash and more of a global reset. We've been trading on numbers that have been largely detached from reality for a while now. I think what we are starting to see is part of a big adjustment that will (ultimately) bring things closer to alignment with reality.

Those who have figured out the new paradigm can use this as an opportunity to buy quality stuff at a discount, while those who are still clinging to the outdated paradigm are going to get wrecked.
 

Jysin

Bronze Baronet of the Realm
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Important to note, SPY October lows line up nearly identical to the 100D MA right now.

652.75'ish

Might be a great level to put in some longs. Especially as we are in single digit Extreme Fear in the market.
 

Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

Lightning Fast
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One of those times market is playing out like I thought it might, Pop on NVDA back into the sell zone and what do you know, the sellers are still there. Bulls just need sometime to accept this corrective phase.

They rally it again this afternoon and I'd be surprised. It's all probabilities so certainly can happen I"m just not seeing it as the most likely case. We need to test 10/10 low that seems the more likely path to me.


Op Ex tomorrow so it's harder for the market to move from this range until next week. The Op Ex frees up money to reposition. So current range is 10/10 low to the $668-$672 sell zone as the high
Potentially a bounce off the 10/10 low of ~590 QQQ and now busting past and currently at ~588.

Personally I'm rooting for the April lows but I'd be highly surprised if we get there in the next few days/weeks. Maybe if this pattern continues into the first of the year, but who knows.
 

Blazin

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Important to note, SPY October lows line up nearly identical to the 100D MA right now.

652.75'ish

Might be a great level to put in some longs. Especially as we are in single digit Extreme Fear in the market.
I'm going to take it if we get it today just for a quick trade into tomorrow.
 
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Haus

I am Big Balls!
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Khane

Got something right about marriage
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Interesting analysis of the AI Capital Investment Circle Jerk...



The actual Substack article if you want to go straight to the real deal.


So AI wrote an article about AI beating AI?

AInception?
 

Blazin

Creative Title
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The bearishly delicious move will be for NVDA to violate the Tuesday low of 179.65 selling would accelerate if we can get any kind of tick below that level.
 
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Blazin

Creative Title
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SPXL or pure SPY? How much conviction?
small conviction, SPY shares or calls. Not feeling great about calls because may want to dump in the after hours or pre

Next BTC (via IBIT) purchase getting close, want $84k
 
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Jysin

Bronze Baronet of the Realm
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Just have to love analysts. In the premarket hype we got this gem:

08:59 NVDA Evercore ISI Institutional Equities Reiterates NVDA with Outperform, price target: $352 - Source TradeTheNews.com
 

Sanrith Descartes

I was forced to self-deport from the /pol thread
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Interesting analysis of the AI Capital Investment Circle Jerk...



The actual Substack article if you want to go straight to the real deal.

"What humans couldn't..."

the big short GIF
 
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