Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
- Start date
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,522
Buy the rumor, sell the news. Also China pissing all over defense companies and also SPACs in general went very risk off the last week or so.
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,522
Stonks go up and stonks go down. They scheduled the vote for next month. Expect a bump as the vote date approaches (think it is Nov 14th). The Vaporware scam that was NKLA being exposed has really put a damper on SPACS right now.
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,522
Its OK Corral time. Things get real exciting after the close today. You are looking at 20% of the entire S&P 500 reporting (5.3 Trillion in market cap).
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,522
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,522
I ain't buying this deadcat bounce this morning. I think AAPL is the most likely to screw the pooch tonight. I think they will beat expectations but I think of them, AAPL is most likely to disappoint on guidance (specifically in regards to handsets). I would seriously not be surprised to see us back near zero by the close. Maybe I am wrong but there is just too much uncertainty between now and Weds morning.
- 1
SeanDoe1z1
Avatar of War Slayer
- 7,228
- 18,612
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,522
Also, dont forget about tomorrow being Friday. No one likes to be long going into the weekend these days. Now magnify it by being long the weekend before the election. I expect a bloodbath of selling tomorrow as big money goes risk off.
- 1
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
- 6,273
- 4,017
Just curious why you think their handset guidance will be weak. Sentiment is that the iPhone 12 lineup is massively anticipated and should sell extremely well. As for Q3, the work from home sales of hardware has been high across all the markets due to COVID. I think they should be strong on earnings.
For what it's worth, I have no position in AAPL.
Fogel
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 12,166
- 45,278
I read an article last week that they're focusing less on handsets sold as a metric and installed user base being the new metric - The logic being that having more and more people to sell apps and services to is more valuable then selling more hardware. They estimated that they've recently breached 1 billion concurrent iphone users worldwide
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
- 6,273
- 4,017
Back in the day, handset sales were something crazy like 70% of their profitability. However, a couple years ago they had already stopped reporting iPhone unit sales. Not sure how this would affect your info.
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,522
Most of the EU is locking their economy down again. They have to factor that into guidance. I am not saying AAPL isnt going to crush it, but i think Coronachan is going to hurt their handset numbers. Look at Samsung numbers that are just out. "In the third quarter, a near 50% surge in smartphone sales likely reflected gains in Samsung’s share of the market as rival Huawei lost market share due to the U.S. restrictions, while lower marketing costs amid the pandemic were also a factor, analysts said" If Samsung handset sales surged 50%, you have to believe at least some of that was marketshare from AAPL.
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,522
That big number is relative. Remember your math. If the GDP drops 33% and then goes up 33%, you are still down 11%. Also election in 5 days.
- 1
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,522
People have short memories. In the '00s I was working in Latin American telecom. Argentina crashed hard in 2001 and their GDP dropped by ~2/3. Over the next several years they grew at ~25% (from the trough) and all the headlines were looking at that high rate and proclaiming how Argentina was going to be a new economic power.
The growth rate is relevant for the return on new investment, of course, but in absolute it wasn't until 2007 that GDP even recovered to the level of 2000. Time horizons are important.
Last edited:
- 2
- 1
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
- 41,467
- 107,522
AAPL +4%
AMZN +2%
NVDA +3.6%
GOOG +3.3%
FB +5.1%
MSFT +1.4%
Guess where today's jump up is coming from. NYSE and Nasdaq only have 50% advancers.
AMZN +2%
NVDA +3.6%
GOOG +3.3%
FB +5.1%
MSFT +1.4%
Guess where today's jump up is coming from. NYSE and Nasdaq only have 50% advancers.