Investing General Discussion

LCID continuing the downtrend, yesterday 47 to 45, today so far 46 to 44

Paper trading is fun.

My advice on this stuff (if youre trading, not investing) is to set yourself a profit target, but scale profits along the way. If you hold the whole balance, you may never see the full move only for it to reverse on you. Nothing wrong with taking some off the table while you wait for the resolution higher.

Sanrith Descartes said:

MTTR is fully shorted now. No shares available. Of course that wont stop those who naked short.

Shortable Stocks

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Welp, I’m an idiot. Back to VTI and chill for me.

Take care brothers.

Jysin said:

Per your posts, you were "deep into reopening" plays back in first week of Nov when I PM warned you about the sector on new variant news.

How much drawdown have you taken since then?

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Below is what you said on 12/12. JETS went up almost 13% since then, and I bought more reopening plays since then. I'm good. I bought oil, banks, loaded up on MA, BKNG, etc on the dip. Look at the rebound on all of those into 12/12. You shorted into max fear, I told you I'd take the opposite of the trade, and here we are. The writing on the wall, as you put it, was that omicron wasn't going to be shit.

Jysin said:

I warned you off the impending travel cliff what, 25% downside ago? First week of November in PMs? By all means if you want to accumulate as an investor, all the power to you. I’ve got better places to tie up capital.

For everyone’s safety, freedoms, and sanity I hope I’m wrong. The writing on the wall over the coming weeks has given me enough conviction to buy puts in certain travel names.

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There never was an impending travel cliff. No one stopped traveling. Been to an airport lately? Delta had a double beat for a reason today.

swayze22 said:

What? I don't know when you made your trades but ALL travel-related stocks took a huge shit since beginning of November when you said you just went all in, which is what he is referencing. You'd either be down or at best even across the board with only the past few days helping you. even the casinos. and JETS.

Nothing reopening related is at or above early November levels. so basically any other time between then and now would have been preferable.

but maybe im an NPC tard that can't read words or numbers

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I added mid and the end of December. Look at the charts on BKNG, XLI, XLF, banks and other travel plays since then. Right when South Africa omicron cases were starting to show a decline in waste.

Its just overblown. The WHO reported yesterday that of the 38 countries reporting omicron data, there has been ONE death.

Sanrith Descartes said:

I agree with part of the rationalizing you are using. Here is where we diverge. Travel companies cannot physically replace the lost revenue of the last two years and the debt they took on to replace it. Fuel costs are also fucking them and the current administration is very anti-US oil independence. I'm not saying they are going to zero, but my contention is I can find better alpha elsewhere than in travel/reopen plays. It's why I am also planning a WYNN exit depending on the charts.

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And fuel is a concern, for sure. Which is why I bought more Chevron and XLI.

Shonuff The first part of being a better trader is critically looking back at your trades. Revise your trade if the thesis changes. No matter what travel play you were in, you took a massive drawdown. I sent you a message on November 6th about this. Attached are two charts where I basically called the absolute top before the bottom fell out on new variant doom and gloom. The circles on the charts are the date I sent you the PM on the 6th of November.

JETS fell -22% and NCLH a monster -40%.

Honestly take a look and think critically about that trade.

My thesis didn't change, the rest of the world freaked out over a virus that millions of people got, and one death occurred. That's why you are seeing traders falling over themselves to recommend travel plays for 2022. How many upgrades and notes from brokerage houses have you seen issued?

What happened in South Africa is what I thought would happen, based on the data. We were getting data all along saying this would happen. Not my fault the market ignored it. Meanwhile TSA counts were only lower from supply of workers, demand was fine.

Look how fast the counts dropped.

Shonuff said:

Below is what you said on 12/12. JETS went up almost 13% since then, and I bought more reopening plays since then. I'm good. I bought oil, banks, loaded up on MA, BKNG, etc on the dip. Look at the rebound on all of those into 12/12. You shorted into max fear, I told you I'd take the opposite of the trade, and here we are. The writing on the wall, as you put it, was that omicron wasn't going to be shit.

There never was an impending travel cliff. No one stopped traveling. Been to an airport lately? Delta had a double beat for a reason today.

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The point was, I didn't need to eat a massive drawdown on the start of the mess from early November. I cut my winners, shorted a little bit, and finally re-bought once we started putting in lows and news got better. My NCLH calls have given me 18% realized gains YTD in my IRA while only utilizing a fraction of cash buying power. Had I been balls in from early Nov, I would still be deep red.

Jysin said:

The point was, I didn't need to eat a massive drawdown on the start of the mess from early November. I cut my winners, shorted a little bit, and finally re-bought once we started putting in lows and news got better. My NCLH calls have given me 18% realized gains YTD in my IRA while only utilizing a fraction of cash buying power. Had I been balls in from early Nov, I would still be deep red.

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Yes, and how did your 12-12 trade go? The one where you placed bets on it all going down, and then they went up 13%?

At some point, there is max fear. You can't keep going with the masses forever.

If the rest of the market wants to be insane and miss it, be my guest. They are buying back in, and these aren't my only trades. I'll wait. Just now, people are starting to suss that omicron wasn't shit. We knew that in November. Gottlieb was releasing data back then hinting it wouldn't be shit.