Investing General Discussion

Jysin

Jysin

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Shonuff said:
My thesis didn't change, the rest of the world freaked out over a virus that millions of people got, and one death occurred. That's why you are seeing traders falling over themselves to recommend travel plays for 2022. How many upgrades and notes from brokerage houses have you seen issued?

What happened in South Africa is what I thought would happen, based on the data. We were getting data all along saying this would happen. Not my fault the market ignored it. Meanwhile TSA counts were only lower from supply of workers, demand was fine.

Look how fast the counts dropped.
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Your exact words are what I warned you of though. "world freaked out" .. sentiment is everything in trading. You were 100% against the market when they got spooked out of travel. The reality of the situation is meaningless when the news cycle is shoving case numbers down viewers throats every day. Your S.A. analysis is spot on, AFTER THE FACT. Those SA numbers went parabolic from the dates in question when we were talking about this. You are looking in hindsight.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Shonuff said:
Yes, and how did your 12-12 trade go? The one where you placed bets on it all going down, and then they went up 13%?

At some point, there is max fear. You can't keep going with the masses forever.

If the rest of the market wants to be insane and miss it, be my guest. They are buying back in, and these aren't my only trades. I'll wait. Just now, people are starting to suss that omicron wasn't shit. We knew that in November. Gottlieb was releasing data back then hinting it wouldn't be shit.
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From 12/10 to 12/17 there was a -11.5% drop in NCLH top to bottom of those dates range.
 
Shonuff

Shonuff

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Jysin said:
Your exact words are what I warned you of though. "world freaked out" .. sentiment is everything in trading. You were 100% against the market when they got spooked out of travel. The reality of the situation is meaningless when the news cycle is shoving case numbers down viewers throats every day. Your S.A. analysis is spot on, AFTER THE FACT. Those SA numbers went parabolic from the dates in question when we were talking about this. You are looking in hindsight.
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Except we knew from the waste studies in South Africa that omicron would never be do anything. Gottlieb and Tom Lee were dropping hints in November, and posting data. No one should be surprised that omicron has had close to zero impact, the data was there in November.

At what point is there max fear? Do you never buy? Because there was opportunity in December, while people were freaking out.

Be Greedy.jpg
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Shonuff said:
Except we knew from the waste studies in South Africa that omicron would never be do anything. Gottlieb and Tom Lee were dropping hints in November, and posting data.

At what point is there max fear? Do you never buy? Because there was opportunity in December, while people were freaking out.
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I am not arguing with you on this point. There was fantastic opportunity. But we are talking about capital preservation from Nov 6th at the onset. Quite literally before anything Omicron had truly been digested in the US. Your take was that pandemic was over and the Pfizer will was here to save us all.
 
LachiusTZ

LachiusTZ

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Jysin said:
Shonuff Shonuff The first part of being a better trader is critically looking back at your trades. Revise your trade if the thesis changes. No matter what travel play you were in, you took a massive drawdown. I sent you a message on November 6th about this. Attached are two charts where I basically called the absolute top before the bottom fell out on new variant doom and gloom. The circles on the charts are the date I sent you the PM on the 6th of November.

JETS fell -22% and NCLH a monster -40%.

Honestly take a look and think critically about that trade.

View attachment 392755View attachment 392756View attachment 392757View attachment 392759
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The next time you call a top with a 30% drop coming, don't keep that private. Lol
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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$13 a share arbitrage opportunity if you had lot of millions to effectively take advantage of it. Shit makes no sense.

1642100386903.png
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
QQQ blew right through 100D SMA without stopping.

SPY 50D SMA has been our support (so far).
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Technically you are correct, sir. I tend to apply a small bit of lag underneath the support level for the bounce. Kind of like a trampoline, I bake in a tiny move below the line. In this case the 100-DMA was $382.85 and it bounced at $380.07. The difference is fairly insignificant on the whole.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Technically you are correct, sir. I tend to apply a small bit of lag underneath the support level for the bounce. Kind of like a trampoline, I bake in a tiny move below the line. In this case the 100-DMA was $382.85 and it bounced at $380.07. The difference is fairly insignificant on the whole.
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My take though is the SPY 50D stopped the selling, nothing to do with the QQQs. I honestly expected SPY to slow its sell at the QQQ 100D, but it just drove right through it without pause. QQQ came back up and tested beneath and rejected. But the two charts are nearly identical in shape.

spy1.jpg
qqq3.jpg
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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SPY feeling awful heavy here. 5th test of 50D on the 5min chart and we have a while before market close.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
SPY feeling awful heavy here. 5th test of 50D on the 5min chart and we have a while before market close.
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My issue with today is we still have tomorrow and its the Friday before a 3-day weekend. I doubt I will buy anything today that I cant buy tomorrow even cheaper.
 
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