Investing General Discussion
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ShakyJake
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Jysin
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11:58 FRC Reportedly talks center on industry-led effort to boost capital and include converting $30B in deposits into capital infusion - WSJ
On the back of this news, FRC has halted down 4 times. Who honestly thought the banking mess was over with?
On the back of this news, FRC has halted down 4 times. Who honestly thought the banking mess was over with?
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Big Phoenix
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Sanrith Descartes
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Gravel
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I don't want to shit on the posters in here, but quite a few were talking about how the SVB thing was a one off and wouldn't spread to the rest of the banking industry.
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Sanrith Descartes
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I could be wrong, but I thought the general consensus was It wouldn't spread to the "big" banks, since they are insulated and hedged against the interest rate rises that are killing the small regionals. Also the bigs are taking in the deposits that are fleeing the smalls.
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Jysin
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My take on it is that history shows, these bank issues rarely just end with the first few names in the news. There will be others likely affected that bubble to the surface. The big takeaway on regional banks is that due to the current mess, you can bet your ass regulations will come hard and swift. This changes the fundamentals (profitability). Expecting the regionals that have taken hits (and haven't had bank runs) to just bounce back to their previous levels is some wishful thinking.
Bigger banks are far more insulated. They have a hell of a lot more going on, and as said, will likely get huge inflows of cash from fleeing depositors of the smaller name banks. It's likely going to get worse before we get better, but the bigs like JPM and BOA are likely the winners on longer time horizons.
TLDR: Is the banking mess over? Likely not. Are we even remotely in a systemic situation like 2008? Absolutely not.
Bigger banks are far more insulated. They have a hell of a lot more going on, and as said, will likely get huge inflows of cash from fleeing depositors of the smaller name banks. It's likely going to get worse before we get better, but the bigs like JPM and BOA are likely the winners on longer time horizons.
TLDR: Is the banking mess over? Likely not. Are we even remotely in a systemic situation like 2008? Absolutely not.
Furry
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I was of the thinking that SVB was a sign of the underlying weakness the banking system has with there being just so fucking much US debt out there at super low rates, but with proper management it should have been containable. I'm starting to think that this is not being properly managed. The people in charge have done a horrible job of defining what a systemically important bank is, or making their actions predictable. Quite simply, the messaging is erratic and feels dishonest compared to the reality on the ground.
Big depositors probably should have taken a haircut on the SVB collapse, but now magically they wont because it was systemically important. Why wasn't it the day before? Who knows [probably pelosi]! Small banks? You'll be fucked if you put a lot of money in them... I'm sure that's great for small banks right now. Don't worry, your deposits are safe and there's no reason to worry! We'll just guarantee 100B in emergency loans just in case something comes up.
With how stupid everything been, I guess this shouldn't be unexpected.
Sanrith Descartes
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Sold out of SPIR. I really like the company but you have to trade what is in front of you. Making too many new lows. Now it will probably moon.
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Mist
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Burnem Wizfyre
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Well considering they’re already bailing out the rich and their uninsured deposits and the FDIC only has roughly 2% of the money they insure I’d say chances are slim to none you are getting your money.
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Sludig
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That and it's a money market account, was sold as being essentially under their savings type accounts? Guess it's an argument to dunno more of it into a market or bond rather than staying liquid, just keep getting cold feet due to bigger home improvement costs etc
The_Black_Log Foler
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Big Phoenix
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Aldarion
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It seems to me this is the first FOMC decision in the last year that has any real uncertainty to it.
I am not talking about the market predictions - as I recall, the recent ECB 0.5 decision had zero support until it happened. I just mean, what people are predicting and writing about on the internet. Its all over the friggin place, from +0.75 to -0.5. No matter what happens, a bunch of people are gonna get surprised.
For the record I have no fuckin clue either where theyre going or how the market will react
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