Palum
what Suineg set it to
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Mist
Eeyore Enthusiast
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Here's an example. I'll use my state. Some parts of the state are among the most densely populated areas in the counter. Central Falls RI used to be the most densely populated zip code in the country.
But the entire western half of the state is effectively empty, despite actually having more buildable land than most of the more populous parts. There are huge stretches of absolutely nothing in the western portion of the state. Thousands of houses could be built without anyone even noticing. Without town water, they'd all have well water and septic systems, but so does my house. They would all be within 45 minutes' drive of millions of jobs between RI, MA and CT. But the towns don't want to build schools, so they don't allow anyone to build.
But the entire western half of the state is effectively empty, despite actually having more buildable land than most of the more populous parts. There are huge stretches of absolutely nothing in the western portion of the state. Thousands of houses could be built without anyone even noticing. Without town water, they'd all have well water and septic systems, but so does my house. They would all be within 45 minutes' drive of millions of jobs between RI, MA and CT. But the towns don't want to build schools, so they don't allow anyone to build.
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Aldarion
Egg Nazi
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Yeah, I guess I'm just saying this. The article seemed to make the claim that inflation is actually beaten, except for housing, which it claims is a different situation for various reasons. And the articles conclusion is that the Fed should stop raising rates as a result.
This conclusion seems to rest precariously on the ex-shelter inflation number. So when they make up a number thats probably 10 fucking times too low I have to think maybe their conclusions are bullshit.
I was surprised to see the article get such support here. What am I missing? Is there someone who thinks yoy inflation is really 1.9%?
Blazin
Creative Title
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Can you give some examples of high inflation in the last 12 months? Most prices had already climbed quite high prior to 12 months ago
Blazin
Creative Title
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Seems pretty inline with my personal experience. most prices now seem to be on a slow creep. The real shocking move in prices I have experienced occurred more than 12 months ago. You making a claim this is more recent phenomenon in your experience? I'm at Lowe's/Home Depot more than I like to admit and I'd say I've seen little to no increase in prices in those type items in the last 12 months. I'd say food prices have gone up somewhat during the last 12 months but a tiny fraction of the move the previous 12 months was.
Aldarion
Egg Nazi
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Somewhat? By somewhat do you mean more or less than that laughable 1.9% estimate from the article?
I do agree that inflation has slowed down and I do agree that building materials are doing well - in some cases I've seen actual price decreases.
I say 1.9% is bullshit though. By a large margin.
Blazin
Creative Title
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Category 12-month percent change, Aug 2023
All items
3.7%
Food
4.3%
Food at home
3.0%
Cereals and bakery products
6.0%
Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs
0.0%
Dairy and related products
0.3%
Fruits and vegetables
2.1%
Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials
4.8%
Other food at home
4.5%
Food away from home
6.5%
Full service meals and snacks
5.2%
Limited service meals and snacks
6.7%
Energy
-3.6%
Energy commodities
-4.2%
Fuel oil
-14.8%
Gasoline (all types)
-3.3%
Energy services
-2.7%
Electricity
2.1%
Natural gas (piped)
-16.5%
All items less food and energy
4.3%
Commodities less food and energy commodities
0.2%
Apparel
3.1%
New vehicles
2.9%
Used cars and trucks
-6.6%
Medical care commodities
4.5%
Alcoholic beverages
3.7%
Tobacco and smoking products
5.6%
Services less energy services
5.9%
Shelter
7.2%
Rent of primary residence
7.8%
Owners' equivalent rent of residences
7.3%
Medical care services
-2.1%
Physicians' services
0.3%
Hospital services
3.0%
Transportation services
10.3%
Motor vehicle maintenance and repair
12.0%
Motor vehicle insurance
19.1%
Airline fare
-13.3%
Can you help narrow down which category the bullshit is hiding in? Is it all of them? You're making it sound obvious so this really shouldn't take some excessive amount of "research" .
All items
3.7%
Food
4.3%
Food at home
3.0%
Cereals and bakery products
6.0%
Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs
0.0%
Dairy and related products
0.3%
Fruits and vegetables
2.1%
Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials
4.8%
Other food at home
4.5%
Food away from home
6.5%
Full service meals and snacks
5.2%
Limited service meals and snacks
6.7%
Energy
-3.6%
Energy commodities
-4.2%
Fuel oil
-14.8%
Gasoline (all types)
-3.3%
Energy services
-2.7%
Electricity
2.1%
Natural gas (piped)
-16.5%
All items less food and energy
4.3%
Commodities less food and energy commodities
0.2%
Apparel
3.1%
New vehicles
2.9%
Used cars and trucks
-6.6%
Medical care commodities
4.5%
Alcoholic beverages
3.7%
Tobacco and smoking products
5.6%
Services less energy services
5.9%
Shelter
7.2%
Rent of primary residence
7.8%
Owners' equivalent rent of residences
7.3%
Medical care services
-2.1%
Physicians' services
0.3%
Hospital services
3.0%
Transportation services
10.3%
Motor vehicle maintenance and repair
12.0%
Motor vehicle insurance
19.1%
Airline fare
-13.3%
Can you help narrow down which category the bullshit is hiding in? Is it all of them? You're making it sound obvious so this really shouldn't take some excessive amount of "research" .
Mist
Eeyore Enthusiast
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Grocery store prices have largely stabilized. Dine-out prices remain all over the place, but the parking lots are still full around here even as we enter the off-season so I guess people are paying them.
Price memory is a bitch, though. People will continue to 'feel' like grocery store prices keep going up because they still remember when they had stayed relatively the same for a long period of time, unwilling to admit that they've been relatively flat for over a year now.
Price memory is a bitch, though. People will continue to 'feel' like grocery store prices keep going up because they still remember when they had stayed relatively the same for a long period of time, unwilling to admit that they've been relatively flat for over a year now.
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Blazin
Creative Title
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This is why if politicians and Fed celebrate that they defeated inflation the consumer/voter is going to be sitting there saying "Da Fuq you talking about?" Because what the consumer wants is for the prices to decline not just stop going up, and to most it will sound highly dishonest to say inflation is gone because that is not how people view it. Now, after enough years at these prices it will begin to solidify as "the price" but that takes time. People are going to be bitching about these prices for some time.
As far as if inflation has actually been stopped, I'm not so sure. I think excess demand is being curtailed but the effect of higher wages has still not fully worked it's way through the system. I believe in part the current decline is the market trying to weigh to what degree Powell is willing to cause some actual pain/breaking of the labor market to try to stop this cycle before it's too late. THere is no such thing as a "soft Landing" .
We have systemic issues at work in the shortage of housing and poor labor force participation and interest rate changes are shitty tool to use when these are the underlying drivers, so the idea you are going to use an ineffective tool with such precision so as to cause no real disruption but still resolve the problem is insane level of hubris.
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Mist
Eeyore Enthusiast
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It depends where you are on the income curve. If you're at the very bottom, your wages have likely outpaced grocery store prices by quite a bit, but your shelter costs have gone up possibly faster than your wages.
If you're in the middle, and you already had a mortgage, your shelter costs and other existing debts are now easier to pay off, but your grocery store prices are higher. You might still be better off.
If you're in the middle and were trying to buy a home and/or are a renter... you probably are pretty fucked, because now your shelter and grocery prices are way up.
If you're above that, well, you were winning before anyway, and you probably still are, maybe a little less or maybe a little more. Boohoo.
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Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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God it has to be an amazing time to be alive and have zero ethical/moral constraints. Theyre "squeezing" uranium now;
www.reddit.com
For example if I dumped every penny of equity I have now which is around 225k into a new home purchase, at best id end up paying double for a similar sized house in a similar neighborhood.
Reddit - Dive into anything
www.reddit.com
Youre in a shitty situation if you already own a home.
For example if I dumped every penny of equity I have now which is around 225k into a new home purchase, at best id end up paying double for a similar sized house in a similar neighborhood.
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ToeMissile
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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This is kinda where we are at. Bought in 2010 , comparables are now 2x. We’d like to get a little more space and different neighborhood primarily for the school district.God it has to be an amazing time to be alive and have zero ethical/moral constraints. Theyre "squeezing" uranium now;
Reddit - Dive into anything
Youre in a shitty situation if you already own a home.
For example if I dumped every penny of equity I have now which is around 225k into a new home purchase, at best id end up paying double for a similar sized house in a similar neighborhood.
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Airline fares are the really fucked one. The prices of plane tickets is getting insane compared to pre-'Rona
Burnem Wizfyre
Log Wizard
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My house is a cookie cutter of the house that just sold for 300k, only difference between that house and mine is my garage has 75% of it converted to living space with AC and heating turned into a spare bedroom/man cave. Nearly 100k increase in price in a single year, that house is 5 houses down from me.
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Geography really needs to be factored in to this though. That $225k in my area would buy you a big house on a nice chunk of land.God it has to be an amazing time to be alive and have zero ethical/moral constraints. Theyre "squeezing" uranium now;
Reddit - Dive into anything
Youre in a shitty situation if you already own a home.
For example if I dumped every penny of equity I have now which is around 225k into a new home purchase, at best id end up paying double for a similar sized house in a similar neighborhood.
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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20-year getting closer to 5%. I think that will be my buy point and lock in 5% for the next two decades.
