Investing General Discussion

Furry

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I literally (literally) just buy + hold S&P500 across all accounts, but I do enjoy following this thread and reading everyone's thoughts and trades. Certainly prefer more posts to fewer, and that's a great write-up. Congrats on an excellent year.
I'm 95% in reliable ETFs, of which S&P is a large, possibly majority chunk

I do like having my 5% that I play with. I figure its the best way to ensure that I don't Moglyzoke Moogleman Moglyzoke Moogleman my investments.
 
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karma

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I am MOSTLY in the same group as Sliverstorm. I just put my money in a few indexes and stop looking, but I play around a little with discretionary funds occasionally while I learn (been learning for almost 4 years now, expect to be learning for all of the years left.

All that to say, I too appreciate and enjoy the discussions, thoughts and trades shared here as well. Thanks much all!
 
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The_Black_Log Foler

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I dont see myself making any more trades this year unless something fucky happens so I put together my closed position data for 2023. Not all these trades opened in 2023, but most did.

Total Closed positions = 49
Closed Equity Positions = 28 (57.1%)
Closed Option positions = 18 (36.7%)
Closed Bond Positions = 3 (6.2%)
Total Positions Closed With Gain = 40 (81.6%)
Total Positions Closed With Loss = 9 (18.4%)

A few observations:
Cutting my bad trades short at a 10% loss worked out in my favor in nearly every trade. In a couple of cases the stock rebounded well, but overwhelmingly, this rule worked out to my benefit. In a couple of trades, I just couldn't get a satisfactory read on the price movement (CVS, MMM) and in those cases I always default to cut my losses and walk away. CVS was the right call and it tanked while MMM rebounded nicely. I cannot stress this enough. Set a loss percentage and if a trade goes south and hits that percentage, walk the fuck away. Every. Fucking. Time. If you walk away with 90 or 95% of your investment, you can make up that loss on the next trade, or the one after that. Trying to make up 30, 40 or 50% on the next trade is all but impossible.

A few of my trades for loss were I believe fundamentally sound trades but I fucked up the entry price. Its not about just being right. You have to be right at the correct time and the correct price. I call this the Michael Burry rule. It is difficult to nail all three.

I still believe SPIR is and will be a good company. I love their model. This is a trade where emotion got the better of me. That, combined with the large profit I banked on their SPAC conversion, let me to run with it as long as I did. Ultimately that loss ate up all the profit I made on their SPAC conversion plus another 15 or 20%. Never trade with emotion. Trade what's in front of you.

I end the year with a big pile of cash which is not ideal. It earning 5% while it sits so that takes some of the sting out of it. I truly did not see Powell's comments coming and that cost me those shares which I would have preferred not to lose. Only time will tell if it bites me in the ass and how much it hurts. I don't envision making any significant trades through the end of the year unless something really odd happens so we shall see what the new year brings.

Finally, I have been accused of using this thread as a personal blog. I don't see it that way but who knows. The reason I post is to try to share some knowledge and help people here make some money. I don't do "paper trades". I use my real money. A part of why I post as much as I do is I don't believe anyone should be posting actual trades or trading advice here without backing up their thoughts with legitimate supporting info. This thread isnt a Discord pump and dump. Also, I am not referring to posts like "I like this stock" or "I think this sector is gonna moon". Thats generic. Post away those ideas. On the other hand, if you are gonna post specific trade info "I shorted TSLA at $x.xx" or "I went long the cruise lines and airlines", there might be people inclined to follow you into those trades so you should be willing to show you actually did it.

You might need to zoom in on this as I made the font small so it all fit on a single screen. Ps... Fidelity ATP exporting into Excel makes me happy.



View attachment 504741
Question. Are you sitting on that cash because you’re waiting for the market to dip after the new year and 5% is acceptable to have it parked until the right time to buy in comes?

I like your blog if that’s it. You and others like blazin have been very welcoming and helpful.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Question. Are you sitting on that cash because you’re waiting for the market to dip after the new year and 5% is acceptable to have it parked until the right time to buy in comes?

I like your blog if that’s it. You and others like blazin have been very welcoming and helpful.
I'm sitting on this pigpile because of various circumstances this year. First was buying my new house for cash and not being sure I could close on the old one in time so I was liquidating some positions in case I needed to make a cash grab. After I bought the house I began reinvesting and had a decent chunk put back in when I lost my core position to covered calls being assigned last week.

It wasn't a planned objective. I just ended up with lots of cash which is looking for an opening to start going back to work.
 
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The_Black_Log Foler

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I'm sitting on this pigpile because of various circumstances this year. First was buying my new house for cash and not being sure I could close on the old one in time so I was liquidating some positions in case I needed to make a cash grab. After I bought the house I began reinvesting and had a decent chunk put back in when I lost my core position to covered calls being assigned last week.

It wasn't a planned objective. I just ended up with lots of cash which is looking for an opening to start going back to work.
Ah gotcha. Wasn’t sure if you were trying to time the market. Assumed not but was curious regardless.
 

Blazin

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I highly support showing trades it gives people much better understanding. We are all different wealth levels but to me it's relevant info. I could say long SPY Calls, but if in reality I only own one contract then I'm making a post about the cost of a lunch out. Having insight into the actual risks being taken are important. I could throw small dollar amounts at high risk stocks then post hey guys look at my return! % are bullshit, you can't buy a car , food or property with %s it takes dollars and making dollars is what everyone is after. Nobody cares about making x% that doesn't mean shit. The biggest challenge of trading is YOU the trader and small dollar stuff negates the largest obstacle which is your emotions. I have really never heard of a successful active trader discussing I made x Percent. People often defend not showing trades because they think comparing %s is an equalizer, and this sounds good as a theory it just doesn't hold up in practice at these kind of dollar levels.

I would be much more impressed with someone making $10,000 cash using $200k in capital with calculated risk management than I am if someone makes $2k on a $20k portfolio when they have a day job making $180k a year. With enough experience doing this I think this becomes obvious to just about everyone, but it may not be intuitive to someone starting out. At some dollar amount the size would become irrelevant to a point, like people would expect. For example I would likely judge two traders, one with a $60M portf and one with a $110M port within the same context, because they are managing sums that far exceed their ability to generate cash via their efforts (Wage Income)

People understanding your portfolio size and position size are crucial pieces of data, take them away and any real value or insight from the process is lost. It's a fallacy to say well just adjust the trade to your appropriate size that is not how things work in the real world. I can go into detail of why this matters but I don't think that is really necessary but maybe I'm wrong.

This is not directed at Sanrith but a general rant, Sanrith discloses a good bit but the actual trades would be more valuable. We all know that the weakness of investing threads like this on the internet, is the bullshit making useful nuggets hard to find. If you guys see that I often buy $300k of SPY but then see me talking and I buy $70k, I have now given you a bit info and insight into how I'm managing risk, you can take zeros off or add them on for someone else but actual results matter.

I am quite confident that I can could log a return of a few hundred percent with a small options portfolio, is that useful to anyone? No, it means jack shit . If I show how I made $120,000, how much capital I used and how much risk I took is infinitely more valuable to people trying to hone managing money . This is the internet and we all have to make a decision about what we disclose and what we don't myself included, but I do think this is the standard we should strive for and none of it has anything to do with epeen measuring which is the thing that people are often concerned with.

Using Sanrith as an example since he is more active, It doesn't matter if his SPLG stock that was called was only 100 shares (I don't know what it was) but the trade in the context of portfolio management is what matters. We just had a huge run up in the market, how well a person allocated their capital is what all of us should be focused on. If there is ANY value to be had from a thread like this long term it should be in PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, not "stock picking". Stock picking is certainly part of the process but it is often a mistake that distracts people from success, thinking "If I can pick better investments, Ill do better." That may be true, but people will often be better served by managing capital (risk/reward) more efficiently so that this becomes a discipline not a trip to the casino.
 
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Mist

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Buying 5k in 20 yr bonds instead of 50k is my biggest goof of the year:

1703000297684.png
 
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Blazin

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Buying 5k in 20 yr bonds instead of 50k is my biggest goof of the year:

View attachment 504891
Certainly feels like we could spend a good part of 2024 wondering why we didn't go heavier on the treasuries. I still think we are in a larger rising rate trend that may have violent give backs at times that could lead to some FOMO before the primary trend reasserts. I think if I could do again and in the future, will stick to the shorter end of the curve to be more comfortable with putting bigger numbers at it.
 
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Mist

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Certainly feels like we could spend a good part of 2024 wondering why we didn't go heavier on the treasuries. I still think we are in a larger rising rate trend that may have violent give backs at times that could leave to some FOMO before the primary trend reasserts. I think if I could do again and in the future, will stick to the shorter end of the curve to be more comfortable with putting bigger numbers at it.
I went with 20 year because I would have been totally happy getting my ~5.3% for the life of the bond, with the potential for a big short term upside that ended up materializing.
 

Blazin

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I went with 20 year because I would have been totally happy getting my ~5.3% for the life of the bond, with the potential for a big short term upside that ended up materializing.
I did TLT (20yr) You buying the actual bond and not ETF is the correct move if you want the choice to actually hold it for a considerable period and lock in that rate. Because I think the Federal govt is trapped by its debt levels I'm hesitant to want to hold something that long in duration. Their only way out of this mess is higher inflation and we are probably only a year or two away from the Fed beginning to set expectations for a sustained inflation rate higher than their current 2% mantra.
 
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Gravel

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I highly support showing trades it gives people much better understanding. We are all different wealth levels but to me it's relevant info. I could say long SPY Calls, but if in reality I only own one contract then I'm making a post about the cost of a lunch out. Having insight into the actual risks being taken are important. I could throw small dollar amounts at high risk stocks then post hey guys look at my return! % are bullshit, you can't buy a car , food or property with %s it takes dollars and making dollars is what everyone is after. Nobody cares about making x% that doesn't mean shit. The biggest challenge of trading is YOU the trader and small dollar stuff negates the largest obstacle which is your emotions. I have really never heard of a successful active trader discussing I made x Percent. People often defend not showing trades because they think comparing %s is an equalizer, and this sounds good as a theory it just doesn't hold up in practice at these kind of dollar levels.

I would be much more impressed with someone making $10,000 cash using $200k in capital with calculated risk management than I am if someone makes $2k on a $20k portfolio when they have a day job making $180k a year. With enough experience doing this I think this becomes obvious to just about everyone, but it may not be intuitive to someone starting out. At some dollar amount the size would become irrelevant to a point, like people would expect. For example I would likely judge two traders, one with a $60M portf and one with a $110M port within the same context, because they are managing sums that far exceed their ability to generate cash via their efforts (Wage Income)

People understanding your portfolio size and position size are crucial pieces of data, take them away and any real value or insight from the process is lost. It's a fallacy to say well just adjust the trade to your appropriate size that is not how things work in the real world. I can go into detail of why this matters but I don't think that is really necessary but maybe I'm wrong.

This is not directed at Sanrith but a general rant, Sanrith discloses a good bit but the actual trades would be more valuable. We all know that the weakness of investing threads like this on the internet, is the bullshit making useful nuggets hard to find. If you guys see that I often buy $300k of SPY but then see me talking and I buy $70k, I have now given you a bit info and insight into how I'm managing risk, you can take zeros off or add them on for someone else but actual results matter.

I am quite confident that I can could log a return of a few hundred percent with a small options portfolio, is that useful to anyone? No, it means jack shit . If I show how I made $120,000, how much capital I used and how much risk I took is infinitely more valuable to people trying to hone managing money . This is the internet and we all have to make a decision about what we disclose and what we don't myself included, but I do think this is the standard we should strive for and none of it has anything to do with epeen measuring which is the thing that people are often concerned with.

Using Sanrith as an example since he is more active, It doesn't matter if his SPLG stock that was called was only 100 shares (I don't know what it was) but the trade in the context of portfolio management is what matters. We just had a huge run up in the market, how well a person allocated their capital is what all of us should be focused on. If there is ANY value to be had from a thread like this long term it should be in PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, not "stock picking". Stock picking is certainly part of the process but it is often a mistake that distracts people from success, thinking "If I can pick better investments, Ill do better." That may be true, but people will often be better served by managing capital (risk/reward) more efficiently so that this becomes a discipline not a trip to the casino.
This is why I mostly ignore any comments on my posts about the trades I make.

It's a lot different when you've got W-2 income to fall back on.

You don't know until you're relying on that income and that's it forever.

Anyway...I'm going to be super annoyed when Bandwagon Bandwagon wins the stock contest by reverse Price Is Right-ing it, after I made fun of him for not understanding how Price Is Right works.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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I highly support showing trades it gives people much better understanding. We are all different wealth levels but to me it's relevant info. I could say long SPY Calls, but if in reality I only own one contract then I'm making a post about the cost of a lunch out. Having insight into the actual risks being taken are important. I could throw small dollar amounts at high risk stocks then post hey guys look at my return! % are bullshit, you can't buy a car , food or property with %s it takes dollars and making dollars is what everyone is after. Nobody cares about making x% that doesn't mean shit. The biggest challenge of trading is YOU the trader and small dollar stuff negates the largest obstacle which is your emotions. I have really never heard of a successful active trader discussing I made x Percent. People often defend not showing trades because they think comparing %s is an equalizer, and this sounds good as a theory it just doesn't hold up in practice at these kind of dollar levels.

I would be much more impressed with someone making $10,000 cash using $200k in capital with calculated risk management than I am if someone makes $2k on a $20k portfolio when they have a day job making $180k a year. With enough experience doing this I think this becomes obvious to just about everyone, but it may not be intuitive to someone starting out. At some dollar amount the size would become irrelevant to a point, like people would expect. For example I would likely judge two traders, one with a $60M portf and one with a $110M port within the same context, because they are managing sums that far exceed their ability to generate cash via their efforts (Wage Income)

People understanding your portfolio size and position size are crucial pieces of data, take them away and any real value or insight from the process is lost. It's a fallacy to say well just adjust the trade to your appropriate size that is not how things work in the real world. I can go into detail of why this matters but I don't think that is really necessary but maybe I'm wrong.

This is not directed at Sanrith but a general rant, Sanrith discloses a good bit but the actual trades would be more valuable. We all know that the weakness of investing threads like this on the internet, is the bullshit making useful nuggets hard to find. If you guys see that I often buy $300k of SPY but then see me talking and I buy $70k, I have now given you a bit info and insight into how I'm managing risk, you can take zeros off or add them on for someone else but actual results matter.

I am quite confident that I can could log a return of a few hundred percent with a small options portfolio, is that useful to anyone? No, it means jack shit . If I show how I made $120,000, how much capital I used and how much risk I took is infinitely more valuable to people trying to hone managing money . This is the internet and we all have to make a decision about what we disclose and what we don't myself included, but I do think this is the standard we should strive for and none of it has anything to do with epeen measuring which is the thing that people are often concerned with.

Using Sanrith as an example since he is more active, It doesn't matter if his SPLG stock that was called was only 100 shares (I don't know what it was) but the trade in the context of portfolio management is what matters. We just had a huge run up in the market, how well a person allocated their capital is what all of us should be focused on. If there is ANY value to be had from a thread like this long term it should be in PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, not "stock picking". Stock picking is certainly part of the process but it is often a mistake that distracts people from success, thinking "If I can pick better investments, Ill do better." That may be true, but people will often be better served by managing capital (risk/reward) more efficiently so that this becomes a discipline not a trip to the casino.
Fair critique. I have never really examined it from the perspective of the dollars because I have always been a percentage-centric person. If you have 10k invested and I have 1k invested, my view is always based on the percentage of the portfolio that went to the trade. So if I view 5% portfolio weight as a cap on a full position, I see things in that context and don't really focus on the actual dollars. 5% of AAPL for me is the same as 5% for you. In dollars, it isn't of course.

With the internet being what it is, I view percentages as an equalizer. With dollars, beginning investors or lower dollar readers might see some large amounts being spoken about and feel they aren't "in the same league" and that they cant make it work. I personally feel that the advent of fractional investing is one of the biggest boons to come along to retail investors since the creation mutual funds and ETFs. Back in the days of price penalties if you weren't trading in full size lots (100 shares), small investors felt left out and it drove the investing "is for the rich" mindset.

And while you say its not directed at me, It mostly is I think. And it would be fair since it could easily be seen as me taking some victory lap of "see how great of an investor I am". I know that wasn't why I did it. I would have posted just the same if the numbers had sucked (and have in the past). If anyone doubts it, just page back and look at some of the disastrously bad trades I have posted (XOM calls and BA calls both come to mind pretty quickly).

I think its a discussion we should have in terms of where we want this thread to go going forward. For all the plusses you name (all valid) with posting dollar mounts, it being the internet (and FOH in specific) it also comes with some potential downsides. In the number of years I have been participating in this thread, I have seen it grow and evolve into a good source of investing info. It appears (and I could be wrong) that years ago we focused more on investing and trades in a more general term. We have advanced (for the good) into being very specific with trade info (entry/exit prices, length of hold etc). Should the next step be adding in the dollar amounts of our trades? I honestly don't know but its worth discussing and considering.
 
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Blazin

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Fair critique. I have never really examined it from the perspective of the dollars because I have always been a percentage-centric person. If you have 10k invested and I have 1k invested, my view is always based on the percentage of the portfolio that went to the trade. So if I view 5% portfolio weight as a cap on a full position, I see things in that context and don't really focus on the actual dollars. 5% of AAPL for me is the same as 5% for you. In dollars, it isn't of course.

With the internet being what it is, I view percentages as an equalizer. With dollars, beginning investors or lower dollar readers might see some large amounts being spoken about and feel they aren't "in the same league" and that they cant make it work. I personally feel that the advent of fractional investing is one of the biggest boons to come along to retail investors since the creation mutual funds and ETFs. Back in the days of price penalties if you weren't trading in full size lots (100 shares), small investors felt left out and it drove the investing "is for the rich" mindset.

And while you say its not directed at me, It mostly is I think. And it would be fair since it could easily be seen as me taking some victory lap of "see how great of an investor I am". I know that wasn't why I did it. I would have posted just the same if the numbers had sucked (and have in the past). If anyone doubts it, just page back and look at some of the disastrously bad trades I have posted (XOM calls and BA calls both come to mind pretty quickly).

I think its a discussion we should have in terms of where we want this thread to go going forward. For all the plusses you name (all valid) with posting dollar mounts, it being the internet (and FOH in specific) it also comes with some potential downsides. In the number of years I have been participating in this thread, I have seen it grow and evolve into a good source of investing info. It appears (and I could be wrong) that years ago we focused more on investing and trades in a more general term. We have advanced (for the good) into being very specific with trade info (entry/exit prices, length of hold etc). Should the next step be adding in the dollar amounts of our trades? I honestly don't know but its worth discussing and considering.
It's only directed at you to the extent you are most active and that I know you hold the belief that % is an equalizer. I don't believe it is. Our emotions change based on the weight of the trade. You have an income to back you up, Sanrith's world is not going to be at risk if he doesn't make 5% on apple. This thinking implies that the greatest obstacle to wealth creation is the "choosing" and I strongly disagree and the evidence backs me up. Vanguard released a study a few years back, it's investors are not stock pickers they overwhelmingly hold broad based diversified index based portfolios but yet they dramatically underperformed the asset classes they are invested in. This is because THEY are the obstacle, their actions of portfolio management sabotage it.

White collar guys making a good living and with assets play with their $100k portfolio's all while they earn the value of their portfolio or more every year. They are absolutely not playing the same game and they still manage to fuck it up.

Another point, this takes time we don't get paid in percent that's crazy talk. If I spend 400hrs a year doing something and come out of it saying I made 12%! Then follow that up with well that 12% was $6,000 then I did nothing more impressive than get an entry lvl labor job the percent is completely irrelevant.

Someone could dedicate tons of time to study and improvement, even in this very thread but if their portfolio is small compared to their earning potential then the correct advice is to log off this thread and go make some freaking money or adjust spending. It's far easier to stop buying $7 latte's than it is to suck a little more alpha out of investing. The size of what we are doing not only matters it's literally the only thing.

Percent returns is about ego protecting imo and I really don't mean that as a slight just because I may have a larger portfolio I'd say the exact same thing to someone who had a portfolio 3x mine. Like I said early at some portfolio size your view on percent returns would be correct but in practical laymen terms at our wealth level it isnt. Now as you mention % of portfolio size is not the same thing and not what I'm talking about. That would largely be an applicable comparison even at small portfolio sizes and is relevant. It's probably the happy medium between the two positions. "Bot SPY @390 40% of port" as an example.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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It's probably the happy medium between the two positions. "Bot SPY @390 40% of port" as an example.
I think this might be the answer. I work of 5% weighting and use 4 tranches of 1.25% for my trading. I honestly don't think in dollars or shares unless it's something I might want to use options with so then I will be cognizant of blocks of 100. So my general move is an entry position at 1.25%, and then adds of 1.25% to a full position. Sometimes I'll be confident enough to open with a half-sized position.

My core ETF position is 40% of my portfolio and not something I usually trade (this year being an aberration for reasons previously stated). In my perfect scenario I am 95% invested and keep the 5% cash position for opportunity investing.

My throw the dice/SPAC position is capped at an all in amount of 2.5% of my portfolio.

The downside to the percentage declarations on trades is there is no way to back it up. With cash, it's simple to just show the trade confirmation. This doesn't work with percentages.
 

Gravel

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It's only directed at you to the extent you are most active and that I know you hold the belief that % is an equalizer. I don't believe it is. Our emotions change based on the weight of the trade. You have an income to back you up, Sanrith's world is not going to be at risk if he doesn't make 5% on apple. This thinking implies that the greatest obstacle to wealth creation is the "choosing" and I strongly disagree and the evidence backs me up. Vanguard released a study a few years back, it's investors are not stock pickers they overwhelmingly hold broad based diversified index based portfolios but yet they dramatically underperformed the asset classes they are invested in. This is because THEY are the obstacle, their actions of portfolio management sabotage it.

White collar guys making a good living and with assets play with their $100k portfolio's all while they earn the value of their portfolio or more every year. They are absolutely not playing the same game and they still manage to fuck it up.

Another point, this takes time we don't get paid in percent that's crazy talk. If I spend 400hrs a year doing something and come out of it saying I made 12%! Then follow that up with well that 12% was $6,000 then I did nothing more impressive than get an entry lvl labor job the percent is completely irrelevant.

Someone could dedicate tons of time to study and improvement, even in this very thread but if their portfolio is small compared to their earning potential then the correct advice is to log off this thread and go make some freaking money or adjust spending. It's far easier to stop buying $7 latte's than it is to suck a little more alpha out of investing. The size of what we are doing not only matters it's literally the only thing.

Percent returns is about ego protecting imo and I really don't mean that as a slight just because I may have a larger portfolio I'd say the exact same thing to someone who had a portfolio 3x mine. Like I said early at some portfolio size your view on percent returns would be correct but in practical laymen terms at our wealth level it isnt. Now as you mention % of portfolio size is not the same thing and not what I'm talking about. That would largely be an applicable comparison even at small portfolio sizes and is relevant. It's probably the happy medium between the two positions. "Bot SPY @390 40% of port" as an example.
This actually brings up a good point about long term investing.

A lot of people mistakingly will try to save more of a percentile of their income. Which, I mean, that's definitely good to do. My wife and I absolutely utilized that in our savings strategy. But much more important than that would be trying to maximize your income. It will have a significantly larger impact on your overall portfolio, especially if it happens in the earlier stages of your career (even if later your income stagnates).

I don't know if that really applies to anyone on FoH since most people here are at least mid to late-career in their 40s and 50s. But maybe advice for the kids.
 
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Captain Suave

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I don't know if that really applies to anyone on FoH since most people here are at least mid to late-career in their 40s and 50s. But maybe advice for the kids.

Most of us are looking at at least one more asset doubling before we retire, if not two, assuming average historical returns. Extra income saved now will definitely move the needle, if maybe not be life-transforming.

As you say, saving EARLY is at least as big a lever as increasing savings or increasing proportional returns. Over enough time, compounding always wins. I'm definitely taking that to heart with my kids and make sure they very carefully consider any early-life debt they choose to adopt (I'm looking at you, private university tuition).

I think its a discussion we should have in terms of where we want this thread to go going forward... Should the next step be adding in the dollar amounts of our trades? I honestly don't know but its worth discussing and considering.

I don't post trades here because I basically never trade, but if I did my paranoia would not let me post dollar figures. While you regular thread participants I'm sure are fine people, I'm definitely not giving the crazy side of FOH or the greater internet any incentive to doxx me for the lulz or otherwise mess with my shit.
 
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