Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
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Investing General Discussion
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Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
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- 148,342
@Sanrith DescartesBlazin , just discovered VGT and wondering why I went QQQM instead. VGT has been going to the moon since I entered the market at end of nov. either of you familiar with this one?
edit - I guess these aren’t exactly comparable as VGT is exclusively tech. VUG is interesting. Insanely weighted in apple and Microsoft. However out of all big tech those are probably the two companies I actually believe in.
Bro, I would advise just getting away from boomer index funds and boomer returns.
If you dont want to think about your investments week to week, or even month to month, then take your money, split it evenly amongst major semiconductor and GPU companies (NVDA, AMD, SMCI, ARM, TSMC, etc.) and net a 500-1000% return in the next 5 years.
There will be no shortage of demand due to AI, drones, cars, etc. Especially if Taiwan goes tits up in the next few years
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The biggest benefit of advisors is most investors are terrible and will panic sell. Qqq or Vgt or spy are all good options for a passive strategy. Owning good individual stocks can out perform that but you need to be a lot more active.
Blazin
Creative Title
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A look back at the last time S&P hit a major psychological level.
The lead up:
The follow through:
The previous time.
The lead up:
The follow through
So both had pretty big rallies leading up to the number, one busted through and with little give back just kept going, the other was several months of back and forth before regaining traction.
I think either way we are likely entering the "giveback" stage of the rally meaning we could go up a good bit more but it is all ground that we will revisit during the next substantive weak period. Some people will try to time that and make some alpha, sitting and waiting for pullback can be a tough game because that pullback may not come for 15 months.
I'm not liking new money here, we are about 12% above the 200d and thats into the range over extended that I tend to tread very carefully. I have highlighted that particular metric for years. I don't care how it corrects, it's not always a pullback, time is just fine and let the 200d MA work it's way up and avoid the air gap situation.
We are also bumping up against a very long term trend channel , we previously did this and then moved above it and held on a retest and I went with chart in front of me and went in.
The lead up:
The follow through:
The previous time.
The lead up:
The follow through
So both had pretty big rallies leading up to the number, one busted through and with little give back just kept going, the other was several months of back and forth before regaining traction.
I think either way we are likely entering the "giveback" stage of the rally meaning we could go up a good bit more but it is all ground that we will revisit during the next substantive weak period. Some people will try to time that and make some alpha, sitting and waiting for pullback can be a tough game because that pullback may not come for 15 months.
I'm not liking new money here, we are about 12% above the 200d and thats into the range over extended that I tend to tread very carefully. I have highlighted that particular metric for years. I don't care how it corrects, it's not always a pullback, time is just fine and let the 200d MA work it's way up and avoid the air gap situation.
We are also bumping up against a very long term trend channel , we previously did this and then moved above it and held on a retest and I went with chart in front of me and went in.
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Blazin
Creative Title
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A common occurrence is a rousing game of pass the baton. Plenty of room for tech to take a break and other segments play catch up while the indices themselves don't really go anywhere
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It feels like the interest rate cuts are needed for that to happen. Until then it’s either tech or wreck. Banking and retail seeing some huge rally on a stretched consumer and tighter for longer conditions seems so unlikely.
I think tech adds another 5% over the next couple weeks and then a lot will hinge on nvda what way the market moves. I wouldn’t look for a lot of rationality in that move though unless it’s just a surprise huge miss or something.
probably going to end today at +10% ytd personally and I am strongly considering a pivot into like jepi or something low risk for the rest of the year would mean a full year of around an 17% gain locked in and I just have my doubts the economy is as strong as the market makes it seem.
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Daidraco
Golden Baronet of the Realm
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Strange how the timing of you bringing this up, and just youtube leading me down a rabbit hole coincided with each other. I watched this video the other night:
I dont know about the permits, and his video doesnt really go over them. But he does speak about them, and the lease contracts etc. that he has. What surprised me is how much his land value is worth and how "little" in respect to the total amount brings in.
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Borzak
Bronze Baron of the Realm
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When they frac you get a large emount quickly and it rapidly tapers off to nothing and then it's shut down. Different from doing a well with a pump jack like he's doing. Leasing starts off at about 20% here and goes up from there. 25% probably being normal. An "average" fracing operation might produce 1 barrel of oil per day per acre. But there is a LOT of variation on that and like I said you will get a large amount early on and then tapers off rapidly to nothing.
As a mineral rights holder you get your cut that you leased it for minus transportation, cleaning and various other things. The producer has to transport the oil and clean it to where it can be sold. Sometimes by truck, sometimes by pipeline. The rights I own are almost always by truck as they are below the naitonal forest. A truck comes on site every other day or so and picks it up.
The percentage will vary depending on where you are. I've talked to a couple of people that have rights in PA and their leases are for a lot less. But they are drilling and using a pump jack like the video as opposed to here they drill and frack and that is done for fairly quickly.
A lot of professionals in the industry, a lot of semi professionals in the industry. A lot of them make a killing, a lot of them end up wishing they hadn't ever done it as well.
I bought most of my mineral rights 20 plus years ago that came with the property. I sold the property and timber and that more than paid for the property and anything I make on production of oil and gas is a bonus so to speak. Sold a 12.5 acre lease last summer to someone in the hopes it would produce lithium. Since that that time lithium prices have dropped to about half. Also not sure how they would produce lithium on mineral rights under the national forest. But they were paying boatloads of money and the rights had already produced twice for oil and gas. I mean boatloads of money. You really want to own mineral rights that produce that are not under your land. If someone else owns the rights to the minerals they have the rights to explore/produce to get to those rights. That can be a royal pain in the ass at times depending on where they are. I own the rights under my house but I never lease those. Drillers are terrible about closing gates and cleaning up sites. It would be very hard to buy land now and get the mienral rights without paying a significant amount extra after two fraccing booms in the last 20 years.
But just an semi educated guess the average around here is leases are 25-35% of production for a 3 year lease and the company gets rights of first refusal at the end of that lease. I did not know but found out last year if you lease your rights and are paid for that leaes you can still sell the mineral rights and the comany that buys them squares up with the company you leased to. Not sure how that works in details. But I sold the mineral rights to 12.5 acres that I had already leased.
When it gets tricky I ask my ex wife/long time girlfriend to find out since her dad does it for a living and she at one time researched for the companies to find out who owned the rights which is very veyr yard in places where it was an original land grant like mine in 1836 and heirs move, had umpteen kids along the way and such.
The best person to ask about what was normal for a lease in the area was not her dad but a good friend of mine. He is a surveyor, the surveryor for the county as well. He talks to a LOT of people and all that stuff has to be surveyed. People like to talk about them making a lot of money suddenly.
I've never had any problem but the company I sold the 12.5 acres of rights to they were hoping to hit lithium I wonder how new they were. When the day came to settle they transfered the money straight to my account. First one amount, then another, then they had to wait a few hours for the last amount to get the total from another company/account.
Off the top of my head I would think there's umpteen million ways to loose your ass off going up against people that do it for a living all day, every day, and have for generations.
Names open doors. My last name opened a lot of doors when I was buying land and rights. My last name opened doors on the lithium sale because (I did not know) is the same as the pump jack htey use in Canada. Not the ones made about 30 miles from here in East, TX which is the one used by most drillers in the US. I did not correct them.
As a mineral rights holder you get your cut that you leased it for minus transportation, cleaning and various other things. The producer has to transport the oil and clean it to where it can be sold. Sometimes by truck, sometimes by pipeline. The rights I own are almost always by truck as they are below the naitonal forest. A truck comes on site every other day or so and picks it up.
The percentage will vary depending on where you are. I've talked to a couple of people that have rights in PA and their leases are for a lot less. But they are drilling and using a pump jack like the video as opposed to here they drill and frack and that is done for fairly quickly.
A lot of professionals in the industry, a lot of semi professionals in the industry. A lot of them make a killing, a lot of them end up wishing they hadn't ever done it as well.
I bought most of my mineral rights 20 plus years ago that came with the property. I sold the property and timber and that more than paid for the property and anything I make on production of oil and gas is a bonus so to speak. Sold a 12.5 acre lease last summer to someone in the hopes it would produce lithium. Since that that time lithium prices have dropped to about half. Also not sure how they would produce lithium on mineral rights under the national forest. But they were paying boatloads of money and the rights had already produced twice for oil and gas. I mean boatloads of money. You really want to own mineral rights that produce that are not under your land. If someone else owns the rights to the minerals they have the rights to explore/produce to get to those rights. That can be a royal pain in the ass at times depending on where they are. I own the rights under my house but I never lease those. Drillers are terrible about closing gates and cleaning up sites. It would be very hard to buy land now and get the mienral rights without paying a significant amount extra after two fraccing booms in the last 20 years.
But just an semi educated guess the average around here is leases are 25-35% of production for a 3 year lease and the company gets rights of first refusal at the end of that lease. I did not know but found out last year if you lease your rights and are paid for that leaes you can still sell the mineral rights and the comany that buys them squares up with the company you leased to. Not sure how that works in details. But I sold the mineral rights to 12.5 acres that I had already leased.
When it gets tricky I ask my ex wife/long time girlfriend to find out since her dad does it for a living and she at one time researched for the companies to find out who owned the rights which is very veyr yard in places where it was an original land grant like mine in 1836 and heirs move, had umpteen kids along the way and such.
The best person to ask about what was normal for a lease in the area was not her dad but a good friend of mine. He is a surveyor, the surveryor for the county as well. He talks to a LOT of people and all that stuff has to be surveyed. People like to talk about them making a lot of money suddenly.
I've never had any problem but the company I sold the 12.5 acres of rights to they were hoping to hit lithium I wonder how new they were. When the day came to settle they transfered the money straight to my account. First one amount, then another, then they had to wait a few hours for the last amount to get the total from another company/account.
Off the top of my head I would think there's umpteen million ways to loose your ass off going up against people that do it for a living all day, every day, and have for generations.
Names open doors. My last name opened a lot of doors when I was buying land and rights. My last name opened doors on the lithium sale because (I did not know) is the same as the pump jack htey use in Canada. Not the ones made about 30 miles from here in East, TX which is the one used by most drillers in the US. I did not correct them.
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You've got it right in your edit.
Some stuff you might want to look at (last one is most important):
Returns
If you want to compare two funds over a specific timeframe, using charting tools is a good way to do it--most will automatically normalize the start date so that the growth rates are relative. Just make sure you use one that reinvests dividends (adjusted close price is good enough):
SPY,VUSE Total Return Stock Chart (Dividends Reinvested) | Total Real Returns
Total return chart of SPY,VUSE with dividends reinvested.
Timeframe is relevant to performance, so it isn't as easy as looking across your portfolio to see total gains. As an example, I'm assuming 87% growth in VUSE is the ~137% growth from the 2016 portion weighted against 10%ish from the 2022 portion.
If you wanted to understand how your entire portfolio performed against an index, you'd have to take each cash investiture, calculate its growth against that index from the date of investment to whatever current date your portfolio data is showing, then sum up the total theoretical $ and compare to the $ number you see in your portfolio (minus the bonds).
That's a lot of work, so most portfolios will show you weighted performance for 1mo/3mo/1/3/5/10yr vs. indexes for the same timeframe. So you'd compare that 12% SPY to whatever your own 10-year performance was, which will likely be weighted in some way to adjust for the mix/volume changes. Not sure if you'd be provided a view of that which excluded bonds.
Risk
If your performance is below an index, your manager might argue that they invested in lower risk/volatility funds, so you made less but were more protected from a potential downbeat.
Sharpe ratio is a simple metric that provides a measure of excess returns/volatility--the higher the number, the greater the return above the risk-free rate for the level of volatility, and you can compare this across funds to understand relative performance on a risk-adjusted basis. It's not a be-all, end-all measure by any means, but it can be useful as a comparison (as a counter-example, the TQQQ C Creslin was joking about earlier earned 2,100% over the last 10 years and looks fine by this metric, but has the uncaptured, long-term risk of completely obliterating nearly all of your wealth in a downturn).
Yahoo Finance will show you Sharpe ratio under 'Risk', Fidelity is under 'Research' > 'Performance and Risk'. By this metric, 10-yr SPY is 0.77 and 10-yr VUSE is 0.51, so the argument that VUSE was a smart risk-adjusted play vs. the market would fall flat to me (I'm sure shaving 0.5% in fees doesn't help). But as ever, past performance blah blah blah.
There are other metrics that can provide different measures of risk. I wouldn't go crazy.
Management Fees
The last metric you should absolutely know is what your manager is charging you. What is their fee structure? What % have they been taking annually cumulatively out of your wealth? I'm sure it isn't a fun conversation, but it is an undeniable factor in performance, and I'd imagine many managers are happy to show you returns gross of fees rather than net. You might set aside bonds for your stock picking evaluation, but I'd bet your manager isn't netting out bonds from their fee calculation.
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Arden
Blackwing Lair Raider
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You provided a lot of information here and I really only have one question: do you mean that your ex-wife is currently your long time girlfriend? Or do you mean that you dated her a long time before you married her and you're now divorced?
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Borzak
Bronze Baron of the Realm
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Like I said there are lots of professionals and semi professsionals that have done it for decades or a lifetime. Be hard to beat them and if it was a good investment how long would it take to recover the investment. I lease for $3,000 to $5,000 an acre for 3 years for 25% of production. If it produced a barrel of oil a day per acre for a short period that would be about 25% of $75 roughly minus transportation and cleaning times 12.5 (but you only get paid for whaat they produce on and yu basically have to take their word on that). so even 12.5 at 25% minus transportation and cleaning you get $200 approximately per day per acre x however long it produces and in the past it has has at most a year and at least 3 months. Now pumpjacks might go on for years but it seems like it would take a long time to recover your investment and the odds of no longer producing would go up a LOT over that time. Now with fraccing I have gotten six figure payments to start off and it rapidly tapers to nothing quickly.
I sold the rights for 12.5 acres for $100,000 acre in the "hopes" of producing lithium and they haven't yet and nobody else has in the region. But they gave me the money now. Oil and gas and I guess lithium now is a gamble. No thanks. Even if I lease and it doesn't produce I still own the rights and can lease again, and have.
There are companies you can pay to audit it to find out how much they prroducing, on what acreage of your lease, audit the fees and such. I never have as I own small mineral rights and as long as they money keeps coming in. From what I learned it's more for people with a thousand acres or more type of deals.
I sold the rights for 12.5 acres for $100,000 acre in the "hopes" of producing lithium and they haven't yet and nobody else has in the region. But they gave me the money now. Oil and gas and I guess lithium now is a gamble. No thanks. Even if I lease and it doesn't produce I still own the rights and can lease again, and have.
There are companies you can pay to audit it to find out how much they prroducing, on what acreage of your lease, audit the fees and such. I never have as I own small mineral rights and as long as they money keeps coming in. From what I learned it's more for people with a thousand acres or more type of deals.
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Mist
Eeyore Enthusiast
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My current theory is that it's very unlikely that the indexes end >5% up from where they are right now so I've started selling shit and putting it into 5.2% CDs.
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The_Black_Log Foler
Stock Pals Senior Vice President
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Hard to stomach buying in now. I imagine all of that is priced in at this point.
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Any particular reason why? Or just your "feelings?"
Presidential election years are usually really good for the stock market. And when they're not they're really, really bad. Considering where we sit at the moment, it seems like we'd keep trending up.
This is also why people usually lose money investing. The market averages 10% and has for the past 150 years. You're betting against inertia.
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Mist
Eeyore Enthusiast
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I plan on keeping my direct S&P500 tracking equities. But everything else that's way above the trendline, gone at the next opportune moment.