Investing General Discussion

Zog

Zog

Blackwing Lair Raider
1,727
2,245
Foler said:
Can someone give me a scenario of when something isn’t “priced in”. It seems like every insight someone has into a stonk, there’s always people saying it’s already priced in.
Click to expand...

A nuke going off in Ukraine isn't priced in.

A .1% mom cpi print higher wasn't priced in.

Tech growing at a breakneck speed is priced in, these are what valuations are trading at, the projected worth of a company in the future. If anything goes counter to the consensus trade it will very quickly be priced in, in a matter of seconds.

I'm assuming this is in regards to the cpi print tanking stocks yesterday and now we're going up "the cpi print is already priced in."

The truth is, nobody knows what the fuck the market will do and nothing is priced in because nobody has control of anything that happens, if it was, nobody would make any money.
 
  • 4Like
Reactions: 3 users
Jysin

Jysin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
6,273
4,017
SMCI going straight into extreme multi timeframe overbought territory. The reversion trade is getting juicier by the day. These are the EV trades that can make a traders month(s), but timing is critical.

1707924957449.png
 
  • 3Mother of God
  • 2To the Moon!
Reactions: 4 users
Araysar

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
<Gold Donor>
75,337
148,371
Foler said:
Can someone give me a scenario of when something isn’t “priced in”. It seems like every insight someone has into a stonk, there’s always people saying it’s already priced in.
Click to expand...

Any event that has any level of anticipation is priced in, the more anticipation, the more priced in it is.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Araysar

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
<Gold Donor>
75,337
148,371
I post my losses too.

1707929082552.png


Was trying to diamond hand MARA past the market open, was up $500 at one point. Market started melting in mid morning and everything went to shit

1707929192557.png
 
  • 1Thoughts & Prayers
Reactions: 1 user
Burns

Burns

Golden Baronet of the Realm
6,115
12,316
Zog said:
A nuke going off in Ukraine isn't priced in.

A .1% mom cpi print higher wasn't priced in.

Tech growing at a breakneck speed is priced in, these are what valuations are trading at, the projected worth of a company in the future. If anything goes counter to the consensus trade it will very quickly be priced in, in a matter of seconds.

I'm assuming this is in regards to the cpi print tanking stocks yesterday and now we're going up "the cpi print is already priced in."

The truth is, nobody knows what the fuck the market will do and nothing is priced in because nobody has control of anything that happens, if it was, nobody would make any money.
Click to expand...
The underlying message in that WSB post is that "insider trading" is so pervasive that by the time you, a retail investor, hear of a "tip" it is already "priced in." The prevalence of HFTs and the skill of the people that continually develop them also feed into the "insider trading is everywhere" narrative as well.
 
  • 2Like
  • 1Solidarity
  • 1Truth!
Reactions: 3 users
Arden

Arden

Blackwing Lair Raider
2,647
1,941
1 - Copy.png


Apparently the Russians now have control of the Jewish space laser.
 
  • 2Mother of God
  • 1Jonesing
Reactions: 2 users
C

Creslin

Trakanon Raider
2,375
1,077
Everyone starting to realize apples next big thing is a product google decided not to release 10years ago cause it sucked?
 
  • 1Worf
Reactions: 1 user
Foler

The_Black_Log Foler

Stock Pals Senior Vice President
<Gold Donor>
43,781
40,706
QQQM up 1.11% today. Yesterday was a total buy and I called it.
 
Haus

Haus

<Silver Donator>
11,048
41,761
Foler said:
Can someone give me a scenario of when something isn’t “priced in”. It seems like every insight someone has into a stonk, there’s always people saying it’s already priced in.
Click to expand...

As somewhat mentioned. If you can foresee it, it's been priced in. Unless it's such an outlier that it doesn't have any viable prospect of happening, then it probably hasn't. But those things are so few and far between we literally call them black swan events.... They're things like "Nuclear war" or "Epstein's client list actually seeing the light of day". I would go so far as to say that even something like "America breaks into multiple countries in a civil war" is already being priced into some probability models.
 
Last edited:
  • 1Truth!
Reactions: 1 user
Foler

The_Black_Log Foler

Stock Pals Senior Vice President
<Gold Donor>
43,781
40,706
Keep doubting, doubters. Otw to 3 trill

 
  • 1To the Moon!
  • 1Mother of God
Reactions: 1 users
Araysar

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
<Gold Donor>
75,337
148,371
Foler said:
Keep doubting, doubters. Otw to 3 trill

Click to expand...

Their earnings call is also next week.

I predict NVDA beating earnings and having favorable guidance but the stock cratering anyways because everything is already priced in and its grossly overpriced. :honkler:
 
  • 1EyeRoll
  • 1Launch Fail
Reactions: 1 users
Foler

The_Black_Log Foler

Stock Pals Senior Vice President
<Gold Donor>
43,781
40,706
Araysar said:
Their earnings call is also next week.

I predict NVDA beating earnings and having favorable guidance but the stock cratering anyways because everything is already priced in and its grossly overpriced. :honkler:
Click to expand...
You can keep saying x or y is priced in but that doesn’t mean it won’t go up brosar.
 
Araysar

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
<Gold Donor>
75,337
148,371
Foler said:
You can keep saying x or y is priced in but that doesn’t mean it won’t go up brosar.
Click to expand...

Entirely possible. But NVDA revenues are tiny compared to other companies with similar market cap. Something's gotta give at some point.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.