Investing General Discussion

Foler

The_Black_Log Foler

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Thoughts on PANW at current price? Seems like cybersecurity could go to the moon in this election year. Nancy seems to think so… 🤔🤔🤔
 
Indyocracy

Indyocracy

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Tmac said:
What’d Nancy do?
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In a notable move, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has once again caught the attention of investors by disclosing her purchase of call options in PANW (Palo Alto Networks). The news has sparked renewed interest in the cybersecurity name, providing a boost to its stock after it took a spill post earnings on the 22nd.According to TrendSpider’s U.S. Congress and Senate trading activity, it appears there were two separate purchases, made.


  • Feb 12, 2024: 20 call options with an expiration date of 1/17/25 and a total value between $100,001 and $250,000.
  • Feb 21, 2024: 50 call options with an expiration date of 1/17/25 and a total value between $500,001 and $1,000,000.

trendspider.com

Nancy Pelosi Purchases PANW Call Options | TrendSpider Blog

In a notable move, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has once again caught the attention of investors by disclosing her purchase of call options in PANW (Palo Alto ...
trendspider.com trendspider.com
 
Mist

Mist

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Rumblings of regulation inside the industry to effectively force companies to spend more on cybersecurity.
 
Indyocracy

Indyocracy

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Foler said:
Thoughts on PANW at current price? Seems like cybersecurity could go to the moon in this election year. Nancy seems to think so… 🤔🤔🤔
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I bought
Screenshot_20240305-101258_Firefox.jpg

I have developed a gambling problem.
 
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Foler

The_Black_Log Foler

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I think TSLA will hurt some more this year but I’m in for the long. Liked the current price. It had a small rally a few hours ago.
IMG_6112.jpeg
 
Foler

The_Black_Log Foler

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Kinda wanna double down on UI for some reason. I probably own 5k of their product in my network so I’m pretty “invested” already. Really love their products.
 
Foler

The_Black_Log Foler

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Blazin said:
I'm going to buy some SNOW on this dip.

I have another MTTR port trade to lose money on. I'm buying UI, my entire network is now set up with Ubiquiti and I really like this companies products. The bad as I see it is that the CEO is little of a show boat, offset by the fact he is young and still holds nearly 90% of the company. Still so small compared to CSCO but there is a very big TAM for this company to grow into. Lose money at your own risk.

I continue to just sit on what I own and poke at adding here and there. I added some SBUX and GOOGL since I last updated.

Holdings with cost basis:
SBUX @ 95
AMZN @ 173
XLE @ 85
DIS @ 89
LOW @ 213
IJS @ 96
QQQ @ 300
IWM @ 173
GOOGL @ 140
UI @ 118
RSP @ 158
XLF @ 37.75
XLV @ 139
TSLA @ 187
AAPL @ 181.50
FBTC @ 41

Biggest Gainers:
QQQ 45%
FBTC 31.5%
DIS 25%
IWM 17%
LOW 12.5%

Don't really have anything in the red at the moment, Apple is down 1%
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Blazin Blazin QQ - are these all in a taxable account? I have a Roth 401k due to mega backdoor feature. It’s all sp500. I’ve been doing these more recent individual buys in my taxable brokerage account. It probably would make more sense to do it in my 401k(?) but the discipline of keeping my 401k all in sp500 fund and playing with my own after tax money is working for me right now…

What are your thoughts on TSLA? Diminishing margins and more competition. Although I believe it was Benz who just said they’re abandoning their goal of being all electric by 2030.

Thinking of doubling down on SNOW or TSLA for another 5 shares for 10 total respectively
 
Foler

The_Black_Log Foler

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Blazin said:
5-6yrs The dip helped I've been watching it for a while was just way too high after IPO . Companies at this stage can be difficult buys because sometime this decade they will transition from hyper growth at any cost to a move towards profitability.

They need to keep the rev growth going, the 100% yoY stuff is over , they need years of it staying above 25-30% YoY. They keep the growth up I will continue to hold. They slow to a market average rate of growth and I will bail. I want to see 10-15B in Rev by end of decade, the TAM is there for them to do that.

I would not yet consider it "high conviction" on my part, I want to see them stabilize the rev growth at the needed level. is it value at this level? Absolutely not, but sadly it's very rare to be able to buy fast growing companies at reasonable levels. I would love this thing at a 30-40B valuation but that isn't going to happen and if it did you shouldn't touch it.

Nvidia is a good example of "No way I'm buying a Price to sales near 30" well that was about 300% ago. Growth is expensive because you are betting on companies becoming a lot bigger. You can find companies growing rev at 8% a year with no hopes of becoming far more than they are today and their valuation metrics will show that. Doesn't mean you can't own them, but for long term investing you want companies that can substantively grow much much larger hundreds of percent. And you only need one or two of these to work in a lifetime to make a lot of money.

I have failed at this too many times in the past decade, with Netflix with Amazon, with Apple. All names I have made tens and hundreds of thousands on over the years but reality is I was wrong to take profits when I did. Far too easy to say hogs get slaughtered when reality is the market rewards the patient.

I did manage to hold almost every big success name at it's early stages I would get awed by some 30-40% gain and sell. I remember selling significant apple position after the initial iphone run up. Yes it's hindsight but I have gone back and looked that had I just been more patient with that apple position and never did another thing else I would have Cad levels of money. I bought because I saw the potential and I invested heavy and I did very well in 2009 and...I sold. Warren sent me a "son i'm disappoint" postcard.

I'm going through another transition as an investor, I have let my risk aversion side become too dominant and I need to let my doggedly consistent patient turtle side have more room at the table, and maybe I needed to make a few million to have the peace to do that. Every person and journey is unique.

Hope that helps.
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When you say “market average rate of growth” are you referring to the average stock market return of about 10%? Interesting how you frame those as failures. I mean I get it you missed out on a large percentage of tendies but how could you have predicted that for 100% assurance? I’m planning on holding what I have for 5-20 years. Probably on average 10. Right now since every individual stock buy I have is a total cost basis of under $1200 I’m ok with losing it all stop I’m not throwing any stop loss trailering orders on them.

I do realize however that owning sub 1.2k of SNOW, TSLA, UI, etc though isn’t going to be lucrative in the big picture so I’m a bit mixed feeling I need to double down. It’s been a big step for me to even invest in individual stocks. I’m teetering on doubling down now or just easing myself into this and putting aside my FOMO right now.
 
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