Investing General Discussion

I'm buying TSLA, would disclose it's only a 100 shares so far so take that for what it's worth. I do plan on buying more. I see no reason to buy at these levels if you think it's a car company. If it stays "just a car company" buying at these levels could be a disaster. We are at the stage of doubt just like prior to 3 launch that it can grow. Elon promises big and is often early this can lead to the impatient losing patience. TSLA is another company that I was interested in from the IPO and told my wife I felt it could really be a great investment back near $20/share a ton of splits ago, so probably low single digits. I was too impatient and then become too cautious to "chase" it and did idiotic things like "look at the PE!"

I think the EV space is going to be in for some pain and I think stock price could continue to go down. Will it be lower a decade from now? I'm willing to put my money on the line it will be substantially higher.

I kind of hope it does go down thus the only 100 shares. If we can get into the 100-145 range I'll probably be buying about $80k worth. Had someone ask me recently if they should buy (was $173 at the time I think) and I told them no, because I know they are looking at it as a trade something they want to sell next month, this summer etc and there is nothing about the chart saying this would be a good buy here.

If you want it as a trade, much safer to wait for it to show some strength and trend change than try to catch a bottom.

Palum said:

EVs are still only viable mass market as a government subsidy program. The economics don't make sense aside from essentially coach building exotics where who cares. Tesla was always a hype growth stock and once free money dries up not even government mandates can solve the issue that they're just too expensive and not practical for average consumers.

There probably is a market segment for them that could have naturally developed slower over time, but since they went the hype burnout tech co route here we are.

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I agree that slower growth for TSLA unit sales would have been better, sales got juiced and now it's going to be hard to keep any momentum. My worry is that they will exhaust the demand of the people who want and have the means and sales won't just slow but fall of a cliff. Rich people in suburbs love teslas and adoption beyond that begins to creep in all sorts of obstacles. However, I think Tesla knows this. They are no where near ready to sit back and enjoy the show, innovation has to accelerate they are not able to coast. And that doesn't mean selling more, they have to disrupt. A cheaper car is a must. I think they need a structured plan to deal with the secondary market. They need to grow non vehicle revenue substantially. They aren't apple who can fuck around for 10 years and produce nothing new sitting on mountains of cash.

Just a year or two ago everyone thought they were going to have to share the EV space, now fast forward it's clear that's not true but now people question the entire market. Only way we can know if it might be a good time to buy is the number of reasons we can come up with it not to be. I'm trying not to buy anything that I can't easily articulate the reasons that you shouldn't and those reasons should be well understood and pervasive. ie Disney

I hate that company so god damn much, then I started seeing everyone around me agreeing. One misstep after the next, fucking morons. Except one thing, Disney was here before me and will be here long after I'm gone. So I bought, because their fuckery seemed to have reached a zenith of retardation. That was 40% ago, has the company turned it around? Nope just negativity reached a peak. Stock prices weigh sentiment, many factors effect sentiment . TSLA hate is nearing a point that it becomes obvious "they are toast" and I'll bet my money that people are wrong...again.