Investing General Discussion

The_Black_Log Foler

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I'm buying TSLA, would disclose it's only a 100 shares so far so take that for what it's worth. I do plan on buying more. I see no reason to buy at these levels if you think it's a car company. If it stays "just a car company" buying at these levels could be a disaster. We are at the stage of doubt just like prior to 3 launch that it can grow. Elon promises big and is often early this can lead to the impatient losing patience. TSLA is another company that I was interested in from the IPO and told my wife I felt it could really be a great investment back near $20/share a ton of splits ago, so probably low single digits. I was too impatient and then become too cautious to "chase" it and did idiotic things like "look at the PE!"

I think the EV space is going to be in for some pain and I think stock price could continue to go down. Will it be lower a decade from now? I'm willing to put my money on the line it will be substantially higher.

I kind of hope it does go down thus the only 100 shares. If we can get into the 100-145 range I'll probably be buying about $80k worth. Had someone ask me recently if they should buy (was $173 at the time I think) and I told them no, because I know they are looking at it as a trade something they want to sell next month, this summer etc and there is nothing about the chart saying this would be a good buy here.

If you want it as a trade, much safer to wait for it to show some strength and trend change than try to catch a bottom.
Good insight. Have you had any thoughts on what it might look like for Tesla to be “more than just a car company”?

I do realize they have solar and powerwall products but I wonder how much revenue those bring in. They seem kinda niche due to price point and market. I imagine the people buying these are the same buying teslas.
 

Rod-138

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Tesla infrastructure projects could be a way into ‘more than cars’. Elon influence landing rail upgrades to electric hyper trains type of shit.

I mean, he’s smart enough to keep his hands clean, but it’s not hard to imagine a way for him to make political donations without making them and grabbing a project like this.
 
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Blazin

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Good insight. Have you had any thoughts on what it might look like for Tesla to be “more than just a car company”?

I do realize they have solar and powerwall products but I wonder how much revenue those bring in. They seem kinda niche due to price point and market. I imagine the people buying these are the same buying teslas.
Screenshot 2024-03-16 102634.png


There is tremendous growth opportunity in the Energy side they are just scratching the surface right now and the demand for energy storage is going to be very very high. Like many I still hope we have a nuclear revolution in this country and that will make the need to efficiently store that energy all the greater. Energy generation I think will just be a consistent YoY growth for a very long time. Solar isn't going away but it's not going to be a sea change just a constant move towards adoption. Right now we have a major disconnect between our ability to generate power and the ability to store it. I believe Elon imagines a future Tesla that has a pie graph quite different than the one above and it will have to be to achieve his "most valuable company in the world" goals.
 
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Lambourne

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There's definite growth potential in energy storage (either using a Powerwall type device or vehicle-to-grid). Consumer-level hourly pricing is available in some places already and it makes it interesting to move your usage (or supply if you have solar panels/batteries) around during the day.

I think EVs will continue to gain ground, it might not seem that way if you're in a part of the world where the infrastructure isn't built yet, but it's coming. Car market is now very much a global market now, there are more cars sold in the Asia-Pacific market is now larger than US+EU combined.

Production of EVs in China is exploding too. This is chart is already very telling and it only goes to 2021, Chinese EV sales more than doubled again by 2023 to 8 million units.

1710602424269.png
 
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Palum

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I just had an amazing idea. Have the US govt allow people to use 401k value as loan collateral for cheaper consumer interest rates with easy access to recover defaults directly from any investment bank at full value. Bonus if the government guarantees value on the 401k balance at loan signing. That way they can extend lending even further. Let's keep this bubble going.
 
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fris

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View attachment 520070

There is tremendous growth opportunity in the Energy side they are just scratching the surface right now and the demand for energy storage is going to be very very high. Like many I still hope we have a nuclear revolution in this country and that will make the need to efficiently store that energy all the greater. Energy generation I think will just be a consistent YoY growth for a very long time. Solar isn't going away but it's not going to be a sea change just a constant move towards adoption. Right now we have a major disconnect between our ability to generate power and the ability to store it. I believe Elon imagines a future Tesla that has a pie graph quite different than the one above and it will have to be to achieve his "most valuable company in the world" goals.

energy use by man has always inclined. think wood, whale oil, etc. the fact that the gov't is trying to force energy change that prevents this trend is just crazy to me. eventually, we'll all be dead or we'll have a dyson ring.
 

Ossoi

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I just had an amazing idea. Have the US govt allow people to use 401k value as loan collateral for cheaper consumer interest rates with easy access to recover defaults directly from any investment bank at full value. Bonus if the government guarantees value on the 401k balance at loan signing. That way they can extend lending even further. Let's keep this bubble going.

UK did something similar called "Help to buy" -the govt would loan you up to 20% of the value of a new build house/apartment with you putting up a 5% deposit. The other option was a 95% mortgage with the govt acting as a guarantor. The loan was interest free for the first 5 years and you repaid the % not the loan amount.

I recently repaid my HTB loan with a 20% reduction due to UK market stalling recently due to interest rate rises. Of course that means my apartment is worth 20% less than when I bought it, but I'm not planning to move any time soon.

But yeah, the help to buy scheme has been blamed for fuelling a bubble.
 

Daidraco

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I just had an amazing idea. Have the US govt allow people to use 401k value as loan collateral for cheaper consumer interest rates with easy access to recover defaults directly from any investment bank at full value. Bonus if the government guarantees value on the 401k balance at loan signing. That way they can extend lending even further. Let's keep this bubble going.
Dont some companies already do this with some of their portfolios? Sort of like the Whole Life Insurance policies, do?
 

ToeMissile

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Yeah, a bunch of people threw a fit about it and Elon Musk (I think) sometime last year.
And I believe Peter Thiel used/uses tax protected money to invest in start ups. 500% return and not taxes = tendies. I’m sure others do as well.
 

fris

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there was a list posted here a year or 2 ago, listing a few Roths that had millions. The winning play is to be founder/startup status for some company and buy stock for pennies on the dollar in your Roth. i htink there was a bill proposed to stop just that.
 

Rangoth

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there was a list posted here a year or 2 ago, listing a few Roths that had millions. The winning play is to be founder/startup status for some company and buy stock for pennies on the dollar in your Roth. i htink there was a bill proposed to stop just that.

‘like anything it could work, but dozens of startups fail…I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting my retirement on that shit.

full disclosure I do sometimes do this in a non-Roth account with small amounts, 5-10k
 

fris

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na, these are companies that went IPO. those founders get some option to buy stock at like a 99% discount. and only those founders can buy the stock at that price. and they can buy it at that price in their roth. i think Jeff Bezos or Elon did that w/ just 6k the year something went IPO and that 6k is now worth 10s of millions.
 

OU Ariakas

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na, these are companies that went IPO. those founders get some option to buy stock at like a 99% discount. and only those founders can buy the stock at that price. and they can buy it at that price in their roth. i think Jeff Bezos or Elon did that w/ just 6k the year something went IPO and that 6k is now worth 10s of millions.

At that point does it really even matter if it is held in a Roth or not? If your net worth is a couple hundred thousand dollars and you have a percentage stake in a company that sells for a few billion and you sell the units 50 million after taxes instead of 100 million, your life is in a different stratosphere. I say this from a place of experience since a group of my acquaintances (not friends) did exactly that.
 
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The_Black_Log Foler

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I don’t know if anyone else is interested in space but I’ll post anyways.

One of RKLBs biggest value props is being able to launch smallsats into orbit on quick timelines, exact locations and lower costs than falcon 9. When a smallsat company needs a launch they “hitch a ride” on falcon 9. Primary payload gets priority and smallsats get off where they can.

Now with starship there’s a theory it could impact this. It’s so large it could bring down the cost of launching smallsats significantly. Also with space tugs on the horizon it may solve the problem of getting smallsats exactly where they need to go on these larger launches (see Helios).

It’s important to remember that launch vehicles are just one aspect of RKLB’s product offerings. However this does have me a bit concerned. I’ll be keeping my eyes on impulse space.
 
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Borzak

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Know someone that worked for a startup doing coding and whatnot. He was offered stock options and took them. Right before or during the dotcom bust. He said a number of people that were offered stock options didn't use them. He left the company and moved out of CA into a cheaper area. He retired or semi retired at around 35. Of course he's no longer retired now after his divorce at 50.
 
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