Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
- Start date
Had one of my biggest green days on Wednesday, and one of my reddest today (NEM calls - yikes).
The market giveth, the market taketh away. Glad to get my ego reminder in a semi-acceptable way.
The market giveth, the market taketh away. Glad to get my ego reminder in a semi-acceptable way.
- 1
- 11,736
- 64,439
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 41,871
- 143,838
GAAP changes make any data before 2002(?) regarding PE worthless.
The "high PE" of historical markets is irrelevant today.
- 1
It's BS.
There are only four years between 1988 - 2014 that had a 0 or negative 10-year return, and you could guess them already...
1998
1999
2000
2001
So basically this chart says "if you buy in the years just preceding the largest consecutive 3-year down period since WWII, but close enough that you ALSO catch the 2008 financial crisis in your dataset, you'll have a negative 10-year return". The next previous year with a negative 10 year return? You have to go all the way back to 1968.
And then he calculated it monthly to multiply his dataset by 12, which is a nasty trick to increase the at-a-glance significance of your data even though all the data points are ridiculously correlated (again, that ENTIRE tail is one 4-year stretch). For better or worse, believing this chart is believing that a forward PE can predict two consecutive crises in 10 years.
Thank god we have his hedge fund's 2 and 20 strategy to protect our wealth from those mean 'ol low cost index funds.
- 4
- 1
- 1
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 46,957
- 132,265
Ita funny that one of the few places you can find honest sometimes valuable investing advice is a board of aging former gamer nerds and its free of charge.
- 4
- 1
Rangoth
Blackwing Lair Raider
- 1,961
- 2,067
Conceptually this makes perfect sense. Ignoring sentiment, emotion, hype, and whatever, if a company is trading at 50x its current earnings that would mean it should should make that in 50 years, right? of course this a is simplistic View but at a high level what it means. P/E is forward looking, so when you factor in crazy company profit drivers, massive inflation, and a bull market of course things look insanely up.
i Am not even close to capable of market prediction but we are due for a correction and then a more gradual growth follow up. I’m convinced our current situation is due to massive influx of money, an AI hype like .com bubble, and political pressure. But we must get back to normal at some point. I just don’t know when. There is no way to continue this current slope if we cut off the free money gov teet and stop the money printer.
Last edited:
MachRed
Molten Core Raider
- 182
- 448
I think you answered your own question. Money printer can never stop or else everything goes boom. I’m too stupid to play with options but I can understand that long term everything goes up. So my entire thesis when it comes to wealth and money is just buy everything.
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 46,957
- 132,265
"we are due for a correction..."
"we must get back to normal at some point."
"if we stop the money printer..."
I point out these statements because if we go back over the years in this very thread (and of course all over the intarwebs) they have been said many, many times before. I have probably been guilty myself of saying it. They make absolute sense from the humanistic perspective. Probably everyone in this thread agrees with them... from the humanistic perspective. From an investor's perspective? None of it matters and shouldn't be a driver for what you buy and sell and when.
META was up, what? 19 straight days in a row recently? I'm sure it was "due" for a red day about day 4 or 5 but Mr. Market wasn't having none of it. Trade what's in front of you. Not what you think or feel in your gut.
As to the PE discussion, aside from the joy it brings triggering Blaz, it has a place. I value PE. But its a single data point among many. I honestly feel far too few traders understand and analyze the old school financial metrics off of the balance sheet, income statement, cash flows etc. Others disagree. The data is free and easy to acquire so why not give it a look.
"we must get back to normal at some point."
"if we stop the money printer..."
I point out these statements because if we go back over the years in this very thread (and of course all over the intarwebs) they have been said many, many times before. I have probably been guilty myself of saying it. They make absolute sense from the humanistic perspective. Probably everyone in this thread agrees with them... from the humanistic perspective. From an investor's perspective? None of it matters and shouldn't be a driver for what you buy and sell and when.
META was up, what? 19 straight days in a row recently? I'm sure it was "due" for a red day about day 4 or 5 but Mr. Market wasn't having none of it. Trade what's in front of you. Not what you think or feel in your gut.
As to the PE discussion, aside from the joy it brings triggering Blaz, it has a place. I value PE. But its a single data point among many. I honestly feel far too few traders understand and analyze the old school financial metrics off of the balance sheet, income statement, cash flows etc. Others disagree. The data is free and easy to acquire so why not give it a look.
- 2
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 46,957
- 132,265
Gonna vent for a moment. Some may know that I own an accounting firm and see a ton of tax returns each year. Its that time of year where I get to see the end result of my clients paying 1% of AUM each year (give or take) to investment firms. I know we have a couple of folks in the industry here so don't take it personally when I say Christ you professional investor mother fuckers are either corrupt, incompetent or in most cases both. Imagine paying for the privilege of losing tens of thousands of dollars in a market that had they just put you in the SPY and left you alone you could have made a 26% gain. My clients would have a better chance of making money by just following /wsb and putting money into meme stocks if they could only understand how to use the internet. And for the record, Wells Fargo Advisors might be the worst of the worst. They must hire 50 IQ DEI magicians because it shouldn't be possible to lose clients' money as badly as they do without the aid of sorcery.
Rant off. Back to work.
Rant off. Back to work.
- 6
- 1
- 1
tugofpeace
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
- 920
- 2,063
Tmac
Adventurer
- 10,297
- 18,011
I'm learning, that for me personally, it's not about learning when or what to buy, it's learning when to sell.
- 1
tugofpeace
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
- 920
- 2,063
That one quote, past performance is not indicative of future performance.. is so relevant for this ticker.
I've broken even twice now and refused to sell because I expected a crazy run like the old days.
I doubled down and bought $72.5C and $80C as well for April expiry. If those don't print, that's just terrible luck on my part.
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 46,957
- 132,265
Not to go down a rabbit hole, but what made you think it was going to "run like crazy", not once but twice? Be specific.
tugofpeace
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
- 920
- 2,063
1) Most recent earnings had a 750% EPS beat
2) High short interest
3) It's ATH was $400
4) Business model is no longer reliant on low interest rates for success
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 46,957
- 132,265
Would #2 sort of be a red flag that maybe the stock isnt primed for a run? I get making a bet for a short squeeze, but there has to be something that triggers enough buyers to overcome a short wall. As soon as buyers try to rally a short target the shorts just add to the wall. GME was great, but its not an every day occurrence.
There is usually a reason/reasons shorts are piling into a company.
There is usually a reason/reasons shorts are piling into a company.