Investing General Discussion

Kithani

Kithani

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Rangoth said:
fair point. But as a counter look at all the car or robotics companies in the world. Who do you see winning this race? I think TSLA has the best chance out of all currently available options. Of course some new company could pop up but I don’t see any of the slow moving giant blue chips being as fast or innovative as TSLA. If they really want to be the future of AI and robotics they are in a good position to win.

Elon just put a target on his back recently and I think it will sting the company on the short term until the emotions pass or whatever….
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I think someone else will win the race tbh, or *maybe* TSLA could wait for that company to exist and just acquire them. I've always kind felt like Elon was overhyped even back in the Hyperloop days and I'm skeptical he will ever deliver on all the big promises, although I will admit SpaceX is legit and I don't follow this stuff very closely at all because I just buy ETFs anyway.
 
Captain Suave

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Rangoth said:
fair point. But as a counter look at all the car or robotics companies in the world. Who do you see winning this race?
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Based on my experience with "FSD" trials in my own Tesla and having been in a Waymo, I'd put my money on Waymo. Tesla's tech is just not a good experience outside of single-lane highway usage.
 
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Big Phoenix

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I doubt he can repeat SpaceX.

Only competition was ula which is one of the worst companies ever. Things like self driving cars have way too much competition for him to have another runaway success.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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GOOG and TSLA reporting this week. That's enough market cap to make a dent in the index. It could be an ugly week if they both miss and guide lower.
 
Arden

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Captain Suave said:
Based on my experience with "FSD" trials in my own Tesla and having been in a Waymo, I'd put my money on Waymo. Tesla's tech is just not a good experience outside of single-lane highway usage.
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I was a huge skeptic of self driving vehicles being anywhere near workable until I tried Waymo. Kind of unreal how good their tech is. Haven't tried Tesla stuff, so can't comment on that.
 
Haus

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Arden said:
I was a huge skeptic of self driving vehicles being anywhere near workable until I tried Waymo. Kind of unreal how good their tech is. Haven't tried Tesla stuff, so can't comment on that.
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I think the bigger fact is that both of them will essentially have a "one generation head start", but FSD will be a commoditized option on virtually all vehicles within 10 years IMHO. Now, the other automakers might license the technology from one of these two, that's a distinct option.
 
Captain Suave

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Arden said:
Haven't tried Tesla stuff, so can't comment on that.
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It's great for highway cruising. I had it drive 200 miles through traffic ranging from speed limit to stop and go, clear to heavy rain. It feels really janky for anything more exotic, though. Changes lanes aggressively and unnecessarily, and on surface streets I feel like I need to intervene about once a mile. It tends to stray to the unsafe (feeling) edges of drive-able space, and the braking and acceleration profiles are on par with a newly-permitted teenage boy emulating his favorite F1 driver.

In fairness, I've not tried the most recent FSD v13, which people say improves on a lot of my complaints.
 
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Lambourne

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Netherlands is a strong market for EVs and Tesla sales are down substantially in Q1 compared to Q1 2024. (6842 cars sold Q1 last year vs 3443 this year). Kia in particular is eating their lunch with the EV3, 4002 sold of that model. New BMW IX1 and Ford Explorer EV also doing well.

Considering model Y was the best selling car model here the last few years, it's a big drop.
 
Foler

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You guys aren’t making me feel great about the TSLA I hold with av cost basis of 300$… 😭
 
Rangoth

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Depends on your hold period. I think 300$ is fine if you are looking at 2-3+ years. I don't tend to hold individual names that long, only index's.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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As we really grind into earnings this week, Im wondering how many companies are going to guide lower due to Chyna tariffs and drive the S&P down below 5000. I see a little bit of support at 4700 then a trip down to hopefully find footing in the 4500 range.
 
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Haus

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I think this earnings season will expose who are most exposed to China manufacturing (which we mostly know) and bring to light some which are better positioned to not live and die with the imports from China. Those in the latter category will hopefully see good results. In technology, I think more software based firms will benefit as opposed to any technology which needs underpinning hardware. (although virtually all of it needs SOME level of hardware, there are those that are far more hardware independent)
 
Gravel

Gravel

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Except earnings aren't forward looking. We won't see earning hit by tariffs until next quarter.

Stocks are forward looking, but it's why I said this correction seems kind of retarded to me as the tariffs are applied and then the next day rescinded. I mean, we probably needed a correction after the rally we've had anyway, but the tariffs shouldn't have been the reason why. And this crazy volatility of 2-3% shifts every single day is ridiculous.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Gravel said:
Except earnings aren't forward looking. We won't see earning hit by tariffs until next quarter.

Stocks are forward looking, but it's why I said this correction seems kind of retarded to me as the tariffs are applied and then the next day rescinded. I mean, we probably needed a correction after the rally we've had anyway, but the tariffs shouldn't have been the reason why. And this crazy volatility of 2-3% shifts every single day is ridiculous.
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A ton of earnings moves come after forward guidance. It is enough to wipe a stellar quarter with bad guides.

I am in full agreement with Sanrith Descartes Sanrith Descartes that I think there is a lot of risk going into this season that we get either pulled or negative guides. Markets hate uncertainty and tariff uncertainty has bled this market 20% (at lows of S&P a couple weeks ago). If you add an earnings season with a bunch of companies stating doom and gloom with import pressures, we are certainly going to see another leg lower. This is especially a risk if we just sit with no forward progress on trade agreements in the coming weeks.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
A ton of earnings moves come after forward guidance. It is enough to wipe a stellar quarter with bad guides.

I am in full agreement with Sanrith Descartes Sanrith Descartes that I think there is a lot of risk going into this season that we get either pulled or negative guides. Markets hate uncertainty and tariff uncertainty has bled this market 20% (at lows of S&P a couple weeks ago). If you add an earnings season with a bunch of companies stating doom and gloom with import pressures, we are certainly going to see another leg lower. This is especially a risk if we just sit with no forward progress on trade agreements in the coming weeks.
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I don't have a ton of cash left but what I have I am holding until I see this next leg down. IIRC those numbers were the Nov/Dec 2023 timeframe and I am using that timeframe to target any individual stocks I want to add to or start a position in.
 
Rangoth

Rangoth

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Agreed with everyone above, I went with puts on TSLA and SPY today....so far so good. SPY already has a trailing stop loss on it, so I've already locked in 20%. TSLA, I am going to (stupidly) hold through earnings.

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EDIT: and as I went to paste this the trailing SPY stop hit, closed 11.36$ for a 23% gain on that position just today
 
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