Investing General Discussion

Borzak

Borzak

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I have a FB account for myself/business. Maybe once a year or longer I get a message from soneone wanting me to contact them about work. Either someone I did work for in the past or they were referred. I rarely give out my private number as it's one of two I have and I answer it right away. The other is rarely on. I don't have frinds on FB and I don't belong to any groups or whatever they have.

Having said that I don't browse FB so no idea what people do with it or how it makes money. I guess I'm super boomer. My last 3 girlfriends I wound up living with are woman I knew from 30+ years a go that reconnected with me on facebook.

Friend owns a tree service and he says they get a good response from advertising on facebook. I guess it's location targeted.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Rangoth said:
Question for those more macro savvy than I.

Is it possible all of these earnings beats are due to the recent inflation? Perhaps they are not true indicators of growth but more of an indicator of the value of the dollar? Not across the board, for example seeing growth in actual customer counts, new loans, etc may be genuine growth but since these reports are from the last quarter we were still getting over that hump.

Happy to get assigned reading on such things as well but it's hard to find good sources for something that cannot be stated with pure facts as its more of a dynamic theorized relationship when you have this many factors playing together.

At this point I have one long term gamble(put on TSLA for july, I think they are in for some rough news in the immediate future), otherwise im just continuing my smaller daily bets to snipe off whatever direction momentum we may have. We are below 200DMA, but everything is bouncing up against various resistance lines and it's really difficult to pick a long term gamble right now.
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Beats and misses are really a last century pre-computers thing. They are really worthless. Its nothing more than an "analyst" deciding how much they should make. As has been shown to pus many times, analysts are generally worthless pieces of shit. I ignore beats and misses for the most part. I look at the actual numbers and a host of other data points. This is where forward guidance comes in. Its one of the most important bits of info they give us.

ps.. MSFT +10%, META +6%
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Tariff proof and recession proof. No inventory, duopoly market share, Doesn't own any of the debt on the cards, and owns enough politicians that it should never have to worry about legislation. 5-year chart. Stock price doubled in 5 years. MA

1746107871729.png
 
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Haus

Haus

I am Big Balls!
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Sanrith Descartes said:
Tariff proof and recession proof. No inventory, duopoly market share, Doesn't own any of the debt on the cards, and owns enough politicians that it should never have to worry about legislation. 5-year chart. Stock price doubled in 5 years. MA

View attachment 584437
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They also just announced a new initiative to be able to link crypto wallets and assets to your MC account so you can transact with crypto instead of USD.
 
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fris

fris

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Borzak said:
I have a FB account for myself/business. Maybe once a year or longer I get a message from soneone wanting me to contact them about work. Either someone I did work for in the past or they were referred. I rarely give out my private number as it's one of two I have and I answer it right away. The other is rarely on. I don't have frinds on FB and I don't belong to any groups or whatever they have.

Having said that I don't browse FB so no idea what people do with it or how it makes money. I guess I'm super boomer. My last 3 girlfriends I wound up living with are woman I knew from 30+ years a go that reconnected with me on facebook.

Friend owns a tree service and he says they get a good response from advertising on facebook. I guess it's location targeted.
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when I was doing some research into starting a small business, something I could hand off to my sons at some point as my youngest probably won't go to college due to learning disabilities, Facebook ads were a consistent recommendation. they do a great job at targeting the right people/area and if you ever look for a product/service, it's in their history and will be something they target you with.
 
Falstaff

Falstaff

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Jysin said:
I truly think markets are in full blown denial mode for the incoming inflation / consumer weakness.

Prior to tariffs, we've had months of reports of vehicles piling up on dealer lots unable to move. MSRPs way too high, interest rates too high, rising delinquencies, etc.

Then you get headlines like this and stock reactions like this:

(From Bloomberg)
View attachment 584430

Premarket GM stock reaction:

View attachment 584431
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1746114521729.png
 
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Rangoth

Rangoth

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Tredge said:
Its lag. It's not a new behavior but it is more exaggerated now.

The market is held up largely by big tech and these companies are doing quite well despite everything. Even during Covid they thrived.
They are so large that even if the remainder of the market was falling, we would still go up.

But this wont carry forever and I predict mid to late 26 we see a real recession.
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I would normally agree, but when you look at the breadth of market its actually not just big tech holding things up. Which makes this a bit harder to predict. Things are really moving in unison for the most part.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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McDonald’s, $MCD, US sales drop by most since height of pandemic in 2020

Not sure if this is the absurd pricing of fast food these days or impact of GLP1 inhibitors (Ozempic etc).
Possible consumer slowdown?

Why not all 3?
 
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Khane

Khane

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I would be surprised if GLP-1s were widespread enough to dent traffic to McD's.

If they ever get regulated down to "normies can afford this" pricing things will probably get weird with food chains and even alcohol sales most likely (lots of reported reduction in alcohol consumption and cravings with GLP-1s and rodent research supports it, and I believe human studies into this effect have also begun)
 
Fucker

Fucker

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Jysin said:
McDonald’s, $MCD, US sales drop by most since height of pandemic in 2020

Not sure if this is the absurd pricing of fast food these days or impact of GLP1 inhibitors (Ozempic etc).
Possible consumer slowdown?

Why not all 3?
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All 3, and I'd offer that people are getting tired of paying for trash.
 
tugofpeace

tugofpeace

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Khane said:
I would be surprised if GLP-1s were widespread enough to dent traffic to McD's.

If they ever get regulated down to "normies can afford this" pricing things will probably get weird with food chains and even alcohol sales most likely (lots of reported reduction in alcohol consumption and cravings with GLP-1s and rodent research supports it, and I believe human studies into this effect have also begun)
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There's this girl I might meet in a couple months who I snooped on a bit. Her entire life she was overweight, and I mean fatty overweight, not carrying an extra 10-15lbs. This girl was 5'7'', probably 200-250lbs of lard.

Anyways it was only within the past 18 months as she hit 30 that her pics showed her being lean. I'm not quite sure what to think of it, because if it was due to ozempic, and we start getting serious, and she gets off of it.. her genetics predispose her to going right back to fatty status.





Back on topic though - I'm skeptical now of buying puts on BROS. Seems the market is pumping stocks on bad news and lowered guidance.
 
Lightning Lord Rule

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tugofpeace said:
There's this girl I might meet in a couple months who I snooped on a bit. Her entire life she was overweight, and I mean fatty overweight, not carrying an extra 10-15lbs. This girl was 5'7'', probably 200-250lbs of lard.

Anyways it was only within the past 18 months as she hit 30 that her pics showed her being lean. I'm not quite sure what to think of it, because if it was due to ozempic, and we start getting serious, and she gets off of it.. her genetics predispose her to going right back to fatty status.
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She will blow up again almost guaranteed. AVOID
 
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tugofpeace

tugofpeace

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Seananigans said:
Either way her tits are guaranteed to be a horror show, so hopefully you're an ass man.
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I'm a face man. Girl's an 8- 9/10.

Edit: Have to say that SOXL right now is great for selling calls. I've been buying shares the past few weeks and selling calls ATM making easy profit. It's so cheap that if it tanks you can just average down and sell more.
 
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