Investing General Discussion

Rangoth

Rangoth

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Elon was part of some talk today(didn't listen to it) so maybe it is that? As always when this stock comes up, I have no idea how it is moving at the rate and direction it is other than just riding the market wave at this point. There is so much hype around all of the long term things they are doing and yet all actual reports are extremely negative. Car sales down, delays in R&D, things don't work properly, etc.

He used to have the fanboy left on his side with the EV thing but ever since he associated himself with Trump they 100% abandoned him! Sort of funny how quickly they turned actually. Owning a TSLA went from being a virtue signal about global warming to meaning you are a secret nazi within 6 months. The left does have amazing narrative control.

Anyway, I go with the flow of the markets other than my side bets and while some of the technical indicators still point bear it seems we may be on our way out of it. The tariff crap was overhyped as always and all of the macro economic numbers seem ok, including today's CPI. Turns out turning off the government printing machine and letting people create and run businesses is actually good.

Barring any wars, COVID 2.0, or other plot to take down Trump this summer may run quite hard! waiting for a few more indicators, but this is a market wide run, it's strong in many sectors and beyond the S&P 500. I ended up skipping my SPY trades today because it was in a trough when I had time to monitor it, but I did make some money selling puts on SG and SMMT, caught about 15% on both, though super small trades, around 5k.
 
Cad

Cad

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Technically the new Model 3 Highland and Model Y Juniper updates are solid, solid updates to their core products. You currently couldn't buy positive press for Tesla for any cost, but the products are solid.

I'd interpret this as the market believes this anti-Elon sentiment will blow over and people will go back to buying Teslas. This last year or two has given all of the other EV manufacturers a huge window to step in, and they haven't. Tesla still owns ~50% of the EV market in the US in 2025, with all of the other EV manufacturers taking the other 50% and none of them are above 5-6% market share.

Or, it just doesn't make sense and people are buying for no real reason. Either is entirely possible.
 
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Rangoth

Rangoth

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I think that will fade. The fed is playing politics with Trump big time. They absolutely hate him. The more core data points that come out the more they will have their hand forced
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Tirant said:
Time to buy some TLT?
Click to expand...
We just had a softer than expected inflation print. Stock market has just ripped a V recovery and flirting back to ATHs. 30% China tariffs will still be inflationary. All reasons for the Fed to keep rates as-is. All politics aside, it is the prudent thing to do for now. This is downward pressure on the TLT, as seen already.
 
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Rangoth

Rangoth

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Everything is up! Both my KULR and OPTT picks seem to be doing well. Obviously escaped with a loss on TSLA By rolling up and out, still a short position in general.

i don’t do this often, but I may go back to the well I had to eat a small loss on with NNE. This is like GameStop 2.0 or something and I can’t figure it out. It’s the perfect of example of irrational longer than solvent. 5 person company, run by someone who previously ran a scam mining company into a penny stock, 1 billion market cap, losing 10M a year with a 28M balance sheet. No a single sale, not a single prospect, just 100% pure hype, market manipulation, meme status or something else I don’t understand. Even if they are doing legit research any profit is about 5-10 years out. No idea how this got latched on to and its max shares shorted. My only guess is they are stalling and stalling while not diluting to milk investors for as much as they can before house of cards falls. I still 100% stand by my premise that this will crash and hard, I just got the timing wrong so I may try again. Not sure of what expiration or strike yet so plan to do some research later today to find a good balance of potential profit, delta, and time.

i shouldn’t be emotional, and usually do ok at that, but I have a bit of a grudge against this one because all my data is accurate and yet up another 1.00 in pre-market today.
 
Rangoth

Rangoth

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You mean you sold them? It should be above that now. If you sold there is a chance it will drop just below either by Friday. It's close but an easy 3 day swing.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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AMD mooning on this news...

edit: Sold all the AMD I had added during the downturn on this morning's move as my position hard gotten too overweight.

 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Rangoth said:
You mean you sold them? It should be above that now. If you sold there is a chance it will drop just below either by Friday. It's close but an easy 3 day swing.
Click to expand...
"covered" calls. It means he wrote the calls on the shares he holds.
 
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Rangoth

Rangoth

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Bought some CI June calls just slightly oom for June. Figured the rapid health care drop over Trump's noise will fade. Super small bet, 5k.

It dropped fast and is outside the BB so I expect at least a slight correction even if the executive order has/gets meat behind it people people always overreact on this crap. Also someone placed a 10 million dollar call bet @280 for January of 20*27*, seems like a fairly safe bet.....
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Speaking of healthcare:

UNH dump after hours.

UNH *Follow up: Co reportedly under criminal investigation by US DOJ for possible Medicare fraud; DOJ's healthcare fraud unit is overseeing probe - WSJ
 
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T

Tirant

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Man that’s an ugly chart. I thought about picking some up the last couple days but thought about Valeant and how when a CEO abruptly leaves it usually means there’s more shoes to drop.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Tmac said:
Isn't this V shaped activity what Blazin Blazin says shows up in a fakeout recovery?
Click to expand...
Yes but not exactly. A correction in a bull market (counter trend move then resumption of primary trend) and the beginning of a bear market (loss of primary trend) look the same in the beginning, that is why investors are so bamboozled as their usually legitimate argument for both sides.

We are now entering the 2-3 week period where you can begin to see some differentiation between the two. We are now above the 200d in a resumption of the primary trend scenario we should get a check back to that trendline and then move away from it (that reassertion of the trend and thus a new high). In a rolling over situation we will find that the market struggles to move away.

We are kind of in a shitty situation right now in that BELOW the 200d is a an ugly gap. So filling that gap would require things to be a little weaker than we would want to see. For bulls there would be no issue with us filling that gap as long as their was a strong rejection of price staying there and close the week back above. So we have the 200d at 574 and the gap at 567 and the 20d at 554 which means we are very extended.

If we don't get that check back soon I don't know that I would view that as positive if we ended up just floating here with lower and lower volume. That checkback would bolster confidence that we are getting the green light to move higher.

Circling back to the strong V rally, the issue with them is they are not a sustainable rate of climb. The angle is too sharp, that means the market must make a transition to more sustainable slope. Coming out of a bear you normally get a strong bounce then a slow steady increase that lasts many months , end of 22 was a perfect example of this.

I remain cautious, my base read is that we have entered a consolidation period and the market is now showing us the bounds of the consolidation. (480-590) This rest period could last a good portion of the year and is about the most bullish thing that could happen. So it may seem bearish to say I see more declines ahead but it's a healthy digesting of the 23-24 gains, and we could do that and still easily end the year up 10-15% and set up well for 26.

We just rally here and it becomes much harder to be bullish for end of year into next because the earnings increase to support that seems untenable with the hand we see in front of us and that means scary ass high vix declines again. We have been through this before plenty of times. 2018, AUg 15- summer 16 are good recent guide posts for the type of price action I'm referring to.
 
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Kithani

Kithani

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Blazin said:
Yes but not exactly. A correction in a bull market (counter trend move then resumption of primary trend) and the beginning of a bear market (loss of primary trend) look the same in the beginning, that is why investors are so bamboozled as their usually legitimate argument for both sides.

We are now entering the 2-3 week period where you can begin to see some differentiation between the two. We are now above the 200d in a resumption of the primary trend scenario we should get a check back to that trendline and then move away from it (that reassertion of the trend and thus a new high). In a rolling over situation we will find that the market struggles to move away.

We are kind of in a shitty situation right now in that BELOW the 200d is a an ugly gap. So filling that gap would require things to be a little weaker than we would want to see. For bulls there would be no issue with us filling that gap as long as their was a strong rejection of price staying there and close the week back above. So we have the 200d at 574 and the gap at 567 and the 20d at 554 which means we are very extended.

If we don't get that check back soon I don't know that I would view that as positive if we ended up just floating here with lower and lower volume. That checkback would bolster confidence that we are getting the green light to move higher.

Circling back to the strong V rally, the issue with them is they are not a sustainable rate of climb. The angle is too sharp, that means the market must make a transition to more sustainable slope. Coming out of a bear you normally get a strong bounce then a slow steady increase that lasts many months , end of 22 was a perfect example of this.

I remain cautious, my base read is that we have entered a consolidation period and the market is now showing us the bounds of the consolidation. (480-590) This rest period could last a good portion of the year and is about the most bullish thing that could happen. So it may seem bearish to say I see more declines ahead but it's a healthy digesting of the 23-24 gains, and we could do that and still easily end the year up 10-15% and set up well for 26.

We just rally here and it becomes much harder to be bullish for end of year into next because the earnings increase to support that seems untenable with the hand we see in front of us and that means scary ass high vix declines again. We have been through this before plenty of times. 2018, AUg 15- summer 16 are good recent guide posts for the type of price action I'm referring to.
Click to expand...
1747312656598.jpeg
 
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