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tugofpeace

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Certainly not an expert on options, but if he was doing this back in April when the market dropped ~10% in one day the margin call would be BRUTAL. It's a pretty high risk/high reward tactic.

The calculus is essentially each 0DTE CSP being worth $50 or so, so he makes $500/day, $2500/week, and for 26 weeks (6 months) he makes $65k.

A single 10% drawdown of SPY is a 60 point drop which with 10 CSPs equates to a $60k loss which would wipe out all gains. A real circuit breaker level drop, he's looking at multiple six figure loss but for the past five years regardless of what's happened I don't think we have ever had a circuit breaker event for the broader market.

I recall thinking about doing that strategy but I'm not comfortable selling that many contracts. Market is primed for some black swan event to wipe out everyone.

It’s not cash secured if he’s doing 600k on 100k. That’s naked gambling.

I asked him how he was able to do it and he just said it was on margin.. asked him if it was portfolio margin but nope, just regular margin. I'll have to inquire with Schwab this coming week.
 

Cad

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A single 10% drawdown of SPY is a 60 point drop which with 10 CSPs equates to a $60k loss which would wipe out all gains. A real circuit breaker level drop, he's looking at multiple six figure loss but for the past five years regardless of what's happened I don't think we have ever had a circuit breaker event for the broader market.
I think that would be the main issue for me - this strategy relies on not having any bad days, you basically need a string of good choices. If one of those goes badly it wipes out the gains for months/years. You can gamble like that for a while but it will eventually catch up with you.
 

Rangoth

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As others above said, his idea isn't terrible, but it sounds like he is basically betting an entire portfolio, including margin, on the fact SPY will stay above X. It works until it doesn't.

I suppose his only saving grace is that it is SPY and not a meme stock, but as stated earlier, an extended downturn would cause a massive margin call and he'd go from 85k/year to bankrupt.

Of course this assumes he is dumb enough to not even have a stop loss in place or whatever. He could easily setup a safety where the worst case is that he loses 50k or something.

The best lesson I ever learned in trading is that losing 10% is better than losing 100%. Live to fight another day!
 
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tugofpeace

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As others above said, his idea isn't terrible, but it sounds like he is basically betting an entire portfolio, including margin, on the fact SPY will stay above X. It works until it doesn't.

I suppose his only saving grace is that it is SPY and not a meme stock, but as stated earlier, an extended downturn would cause a massive margin call and he'd go from 85k/year to bankrupt.

Of course this assumes he is dumb enough to not even have a stop loss in place or whatever. He could easily setup a safety where the worst case is that he loses 50k or something.

The best lesson I ever learned in trading is that losing 10% is better than losing 100%. Live to fight another day!

Is stop loss even reliable on options? I suppose it depends on the liquidity which for SPY is probably good enough, but I seem to recall having stop loss in the past and it just didn't work because the liquidity wasn't there. Let alone if there is a sharp drawdown I don't think the stop will execute, or if it does it will execute a bit below the stop.
 
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Rangoth

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Is stop loss even reliable on options? I suppose it depends on the liquidity which for SPY is probably good enough, but I seem to recall having stop loss in the past and it just didn't work because the liquidity wasn't there. Let alone if there is a sharp drawdown I don't think the stop will execute, or if it does it will execute a bit below the stop.

ON SPY it is actually moderately reliable. They are very liquid and I use stops on them all the time. On weird long plays on small tickers, zero chance
 

Strifen

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Who was it who was doing the Uranium plays here again?

I saw a vid come up (likely just hype) on my youtube feed a few days ago about Uranium and how we're on the precipice of needing shit-tons of it and the price isn't done mooning and blah blah blah.
What's the read on Uranium these days?

Ive been in uranium stocks since 2014.

There are some nuclear and uranium plays that are doing very well, many of these I am well up 10x, electricity will be the bottleneck to AI, China is leaps ahead with how much electricity they have available and are adding, the power grid in the USA is going to be under major strain going forward large part due to AI and Crypto. Big tech is moving in with capital to secure nuclear power generation, trump signed 3 exec orders to speed up its development.

CCJ, UEC, DNN, UUUU - my top uranium plays

OKLO, SMR, BWXT - reactor developers

LEU, LBTR, ASPI - fuel services/enrichment

Made this post about it in 2017.

I've been buying uranium equities for the past 3 years now as a long term/contrarian investment and after a brutal 11 year year bear market things finally look to be turning the corner. I've been studying this industry for years now and in the early 2020's the world is looking at a substantial shortfall of mined supply.

Some companies I like.

CCJ - Major blue chip producer

MGA, NXE, DML - Explorers and developers

UEC, URG, UUUU - Small cap producers (stable and based in the U.S)

URA - ETF tracking the entire industry.

The gains in this sector so far in 2017 have been incredible but I'm expecting a healthy pull back from the recent buying frenzy. Uranium bottomed out at 18 bucks a pound in Nov 2016 and it's recovered to ~27 bucks today. The uranium equities underwent their final capitulation phase back in Nov and have very clearly broke the trend line. Smart money and institutional investors have been pouring in.

If uranium gets back up to $65 bucks a pound then many of these equities will see a 5-10 fold increase if not more. It's a highly risky play, but the world needs nuclear power as a clean source of baseload energy. Looks at whats going on in the most populated cities in India and China, they are living through an environmental crisis the air pollution is so bad. These countries absolutely need more nuclear power because it provides around the clock clean energy. China's building reactors like mad, japan is working to bring theirs back online (albeit slowly) - other countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia are turning towards nuclear power.

Germany is shutting down all their reactors (8 more) by 2022 but that's because Merkel sold out to the green party, and who knows if they'll even be able to do that... don't get me started on the idiocy of germanys energiewende.

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Borzak

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Not a commodity trader, but read a while back the exchange upped what you needed to trade futures on margin for platinum when it was up 40% for the year. I could see some getting really underwater fast after a long string of gains then when a margin call came oops.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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0DTE options are this generation's shorting the VIX ETNs. It's cant lose money... until it loses.

For those who have no idea what a VIX ETN was or why shorting it was cant lose money, go as Grok.
 
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Furry

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So I got told by my parents that they are basically going to start giving me an allowance. It's a pretty substantial amount. Is this like a normal death planning thing people do? My parents got some financial advisor from fidelity I think in the last couple weeks. I'm just really confused, because I've never once asked them for money. I'm just wonder if I need to be real concerned this advisor is fucking with them, but I thought financial advisors just usually put people in a terrible mutual fund and earn commission.
 

Gravel

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Probably.

My father-in-law died of leukemia a few years ago. About a year before, they gave both my wife and her brother about $40k each for downpayments on houses (we both moved at the same time). Neither of us needed it, but it was something where we'd end up with it eventually anyway, so may as well see your kids get a benefit while you're still alive.
 
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Falstaff

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So I got told by my parents that they are basically going to start giving me an allowance. It's a pretty substantial amount. Is this like a normal death planning thing people do? My parents got some financial advisor from fidelity I think in the last couple weeks. I'm just really confused, because I've never once asked them for money. I'm just wonder if I need to be real concerned this advisor is fucking with them, but I thought financial advisors just usually put people in a terrible mutual fund and earn commission.
Is it mandatory withdrawal/required distributions that they are just giving you?
 

Asshat Foler

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It’s been a while but there’s gift tax benefits - it was under 13k then it wasn’t taxed iirc. Beneficial versus it going through estate tax